What's new
USCHO Fan Forum

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

  • The USCHO Fan Forum has migrated to a new plaform, xenForo. Most of the function of the forum should work in familiar ways. Please note that you can switch between light and dark modes by clicking on the gear icon in the upper right of the main menu bar. We are hoping that this new platform will prove to be faster and more reliable. Please feel free to explore its features.

The Countries: Forget it, Burkina Faso, Michigan is still the worst.

Lula: bans sports betting and announces a debt relief program.

Apparently, Elder Bolsonaro let betting run unregulated. Lula's government tried to rein it in, but that didn't work, so the Brazilian government said "we're done here."

 
ProPublica has a great article how one reporter purposely bet as if he was a problem gambler to see if the gambling sites would kick him off.

They promoted him to VIP and kept milking him.

 
Lula: bans sports betting and announces a debt relief program.

Apparently, Elder Bolsonaro let betting run unregulated. Lula's government tried to rein it in, but that didn't work, so the Brazilian government said "we're done here."

I doubt we could do that. Any president who tried would get Zaprudered.
 
I fully expect this to go poorly. Unfortunately both the IQ and maturity of the Czech electorate has cratered much like the rest of the West. Perhaps universal suffrage was not a great idea after all.

Czechs are heading to the polls on Saturday in the second day of voting to elect local representatives as well as a third of the Senate's members, in what is being seen as a popularity test for Prime Minister Andrej Babiš.

Babiš, who previously served as PM from 2017 to 2021, returned to power after his ANO party sealed a strong win in parliamentary elections in October 2025. The ANO, which continues to hold a sizeable lead in opinion polls as the country's most popular party, formed a nationalist coalition government with the Motorists for Themselves (AUTO) and Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) parties.

The billionaire populist politician and founder of the Agrofert food and chemicals group will now be hoping his party can make gains in the 81-seat Senate.

Since taking office, Babiš has distanced himself from support for Ukraine. The ANO had campaigned on promises to focus on domestic affairs such as energy prices, pensions, and housing, as they sought to tap into concerns too much money was being sent to Kyiv.

Think of him as our Orban ("illiberal democracy"). Nasty piece of work but we all know what happens when the hillbillies vote.
 
How to escape, according to Claude:

Giovanni Capoccia’s Defending Democracy compares interwar European democracies that faced anti-system movements. Belgium, Finland, Czechoslovakia, and Britain survived; Germany, Italy, and Austria did not. The survivors did not win by out-fighting their fascists in the street. They combined narrowly targeted legal restrictions on anti-system actors (Britain’s 1936 Public Order Act, which banned political uniforms, is the standard example) with a refusal by mainstream conservatives to ally with them. In Belgium in 1937, Rex’s Degrelle was crushed in a by-election when Catholics, Liberals, and Socialists all backed a single opponent. Finland’s conservatives broke the Lapua movement once it turned to kidnapping and coups. In none of these cases did the movement fail for lack of violence on the other side.


Cable Street in 1936 is the usual counterexample, and it is instructive, but partly against the violent reading. The crowd that stopped the march was mass and heterogeneous, and the state then supplied the durable response through law.


The decisive variable is elite alliance


Robert Paxton’s account of fascism’s stages locates the pivotal moment where the movement stops being a marginal force and enters an alliance with conservative elites who believe they can use it. That moment, and not the street, determined Italy and Germany. The strategic implication is uncomfortable, and I would press you on it: the label “fascism” is a tool for mobilizing the opposed, but it is a poor tool for peeling away the conservatives, business interests, and security-sector officials whose defection or non-defection decides the outcome. A coalition strategy requires treating those actors as potential allies, and the label tells them they are accomplices. Whether the diagnostic gain outweighs the coalitional cost is a real tradeoff, and the Belgian and Finnish cases favored coalition.


Nonviolent instruments that have worked against fascist and quasi-fascist threats


  • Non-cooperation by the pillars of support. The Kapp Putsch of 1920 collapsed in days because of a general strike and civil-service refusal. The 1961 Algiers putsch failed when conscript soldiers declined to follow their officers. Regimes, including fascist ones, depend on the compliance of bureaucrats, police, soldiers, and employers, and the decisive pressure is on them.
  • Electoral concentration. Belgium 1937, and more recently Poland 2023 and the Brazilian and Serbian cases, show that unified opposition behind a single credible candidate can defeat movements even when the electoral playing field is tilted.
  • Legal accountability. Prosecuting violations, as with Golden Dawn, degrades organizational capacity when the offenses are actual crimes and not ideology.
  • Institutional defense. Courts, electoral administration, a free press, and federal structures are the referees I flagged earlier. A fascist movement that cannot capture them can be beaten at the polls; one that does can only be removed by collapse or defection.

Chenoweth and Stephan’s data on resistance campaigns find nonviolent campaigns roughly twice as likely to succeed as violent ones, largely because they recruit more broadly and induce defections. The data concern resistance to existing regimes, not preventing capture, so the application here is analogical, but the mechanism (breadth of participation, loyalty shifts among security forces) is the same one that matters.


Why violence is the weaker option even on the thesis


Weimar’s street violence is the cautionary case. The Communist Rotfrontkämpferbund and the Nazi SA both fought in the streets, and the disorder served the Nazis’ order-versus-chaos narrative and pushed frightened conservatives toward them. The deeper difficulty is that fascism is a movement that valorizes violence and treats political life as war. A opposition that adopts the same conception fights on the terrain where the movement has the comparative advantage and surrenders the one thing that distinguishes it: the claim to a legitimacy that does not reduce to force. Henry’s line also deserves a closer look. In context it is the threat of a sack, rhetoric aimed at securing surrender, and the play is notably uneasy about the man making it.


Where violence has a defensible role


Two roles, both narrow. The first is lawful state force against actual crimes, which is simply the monopoly on violence working as intended, and which weakens when authorities decline to exercise it, as with the Weimar courts’ leniency toward right-wing paramilitaries. The second is communal self-defense by threatened people when the state will not protect them. Beyond these, armed resistance has historically been effective mainly when a captured state faces a military that has split, or an external power, and the costs in civil war or occupation have usually been far above those of the preceding politics.


The conclusion


On your thesis, the answer is that fascism is defeated at the stage where elites decide whether to ally with it, and that nonviolent tools aimed at that decision have the better record. The violent endgame is what happens when this stage has failed, and then it is a catastrophe whose victory conditions are mostly foreign.
 
Bullied teen shoots and wounds 2 teachers with a hunting rifle loaded with "small pellets" (guessing .22LR or even .177?), before being tackled.

Now, swap it out for a .223 Remington semi-auto, add a bump stock, and give him a 9mm Glock sidearm with a couple extra magazines. Welcome to America, where he'd have killed 5-10 and wounded dozens. Freedumb!
 
The entire GOP rolling over for him taught us forever that all talk of conservatism as a coherent small government, personal liberty, fiscal responsibility philosophy is bullshit. Conservatism is about fear of The Other and about concentrating wealth and power for their brute force results, full stop. That is all the Right will ever be.
 
Back
Top