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Business, Economics, and Taxes 2: That's Why We Fight to Take the Means Back

wholesale gas, up 20 cents, diesel up 23 cents, brent over 120.

I expect 4.49 for gas here. over 6 bucks for diesel by weekend
 
Someone is messing about. Brent was 120.06 at 14:31 MT, 116 from 14:45 to 14:59, and is now 120.40 at 15:05.

It cratered 4 points in 14 minutes, sat for 14 minutes, then completely recovered in 6 minutes. Just what in the hell was that?
 
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walrus said:
wholesale gas, up 20 cents, diesel up 23 cents, brent over 120.

I expect 4.49 for gas here. over 6 bucks for diesel by weekend
Click to expand...

If gas prices increased over the last 60 days purely on point of sale profiteering with stable inherited pre-war inventory, and now the kink is about to hit for real, I have no idea how high prices could get.

Per Yahoo Finance (yeah, I know), the highest average gasoline price in U.S. history was $5.016 on 6/14/22. The average prior to the war was $2.98. Right now it is $4.22. It is about $3.78 in the Deluded Triangle (formed by vertices in El Paso TX, Sioux Falls SD, and Savannah GA).

NASDAQ is up for the day. The Dow lost a half point.
 
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was out with a bunch of supply chain people in Montreal tonight. I asked how bad the impending crisis is with the trump blockade. they did not mince words, it's not here yet, and when it hits, it's going to hit bad.

can't wait to hear all the nodak scum whining about why biden would do this. oh wait, all those brainless fucks will pretend they like getting rammed up the ass by small dicked, poop stained daddy
 
Deutsche Gopher Fan said:
can't wait to hear all the nodak scum whining about why biden would do this. oh wait, all those brainless fucks will pretend they like getting rammed up the ass by small dicked, poop stained daddy
Click to expand...
"Shouldn't have canceled the Keystone XL pipeline." 🤨🙄 (Even though if it was built it would not be alleviating a goddammed thing.)


In other updates "The bad things are accelerating," per Mr Global.
Gasoline whole jumped $0.20 today, diesel up $0.23.

And those tankers still enroute to the gulf? If the Strait opened today, those tankers would still be buying our oil products until August.
 
ticapnews said:
Brent crude is about to break $125, WTI crude $110.
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Those are June futures, which are different (closer to spot; higher) from the numbers I was quoting last night.

The site I have been using seems to be on July futures (currently 112). They appear to be 10 weeks out or something like that.

Edit: no, my site doesn't seem to explicitly tie their results back to true futures sales at all. They rely on "a third party" and they allude to CFDs*, not futures. I like your source much better and will start using it. The ticker for June futures is brnm26, where that 4th character increments by month. July is brnn26, August is brnq26, September is brnu26, because life cannot be simple:

F=Jan, G=Feb, H=Mar, J=Apr, K=May, M=Jun, N=Jul, Q=Aug, U=Sep, V=Oct, X=Nov, Z=Dec

52-week range on (the now retired) brnm26 (June futures) was 58.56 - 126.41. As the expiration date approaches, the futures price converges with the spot price.

  • Time to Maturity: As the expiration date of a futures contract approaches, the futures price tends to converge with the spot price. This is because the rest of the impacts below like interest rates, dividends, and storage costs becomes less significant as there is less time left for these elements to influence the price.
  • Interest Rates: Higher interest rates increase the cost of carrying an asset, making futures prices higher relative to spot prices. Conversely, lower interest rates reduce the cost of holding assets, which helps futures prices converge more easily to spot prices as the expiration date approaches, since the impact of carrying costs decreases over time.
  • Supply and Demand: The basic economic principle of supply and demand also influences the convergence of futures prices to spot prices. For example, if demand for a commodity or asset rises, the spot price will increase, and futures prices will adjust accordingly.
  • Market Expectations: Futures prices are influenced by market expectations about future supply, demand, and macroeconomic factors. These expectations can cause the futures price to diverge from the spot price initially. However, as the futures contract matures, expectations become clearer and the futures price adjusts to reflect the actual supply-demand conditions in the spot market.
Click to expand...


This is fun, too:
In well-functioning markets, the convergence of futures prices to spot prices is a fundamental principle, driven by arbitrage opportunities that traders exploit to lock in risk-free profits. A failure to converge suggests that there is a disconnect between the futures and spot markets. One of the most common reasons for a lack of convergence is insufficient market liquidity.

When there is low trading volume in the futures or spot market, it can lead to significant price discrepancies between the two. Without enough buyers and sellers to create equilibrium, the futures price may not accurately reflect the current spot price. This can result in futures prices diverging from spot prices, especially as the contract nears expiration.

Market manipulation is another potential cause of futures price failure to converge with the spot price. If large traders or entities intentionally influence futures prices by taking positions that disrupt the normal relationship between the futures and spot markets, it can cause prices to behave abnormally. Regulatory bodies closely monitor futures markets to detect and prevent such activities, but these practices can still happen.
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*
CFDs (Contracts for Difference) and futures are both derivatives used to speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset. CFDs are flexible, over-the-counter (OTC) products with no fixed expiry suitable for short-term trading. Futures are regulated, exchange-traded contracts with standardized sizes and expiration dates.

Key Comparisons:
  • Market/Regulation: Futures are traded on regulated exchanges (e.g., CME). CFDs are traded OTC directly with a broker, creating higher counterparty risk.
    • Costs & Leverage: CFDs often have lower capital requirements but incur overnight funding fees. Futures often offer higher capital efficiency and have no overnight funding fees, but involve exchange fees/commissions.
    • Pricing: CFD prices are set by the broker, often reflecting the spot price. Futures prices are determined by market exchange demand.
Click to expand...

Note: The final blurb above is AI scraping from Capital.com which is quoting from reddit. JFC, I hope the entire global financial system is not ultimately grounded in r/WallStreetBets.
 
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Deutsche Gopher Fan said:
was out with a bunch of supply chain people in Montreal tonight. I asked how bad the impending crisis is with the trump blockade. they did not mince words, it's not here yet, and when it hits, it's going to hit bad.

can't wait to hear all the nodak scum whining about why biden would do this. oh wait, all those brainless fucks will pretend they like getting rammed up the ass by small dicked, poop stained daddy
Click to expand...
Well, they do. It's what they fantasize about.
 
Kepler said:
Those are June futures, which are different (closer to spot; higher) from the numbers I was quoting last night.

The site I have been using seems to be on July futures (currently 112). They appear to be 10 weeks out or something like that.

Edit: no, my site doesn't seem to explicitly tie their results back to true futures sales at all. They rely on "a third party" and they allude to CFDs*, not futures. I like your source much better and will start using it. The ticker for June futures is brnm26, where that 4th character increments by month. July is brnn26, August is brnq26, September is brnu26, because life cannot be simple:

F=Jan, G=Feb, H=Mar, J=Apr, K=May, M=Jun, N=Jul, Q=Aug, U=Sep, V=Oct, X=Nov, Z=Dec

52-week range on (the now retired) brnm26 (June futures) was 58.56 - 126.41. As the expiration date approaches, the futures price converges with the spot price.




This is fun, too:


*


Note: The final blurb above is AI scraping from Capital.com which is quoting from reddit. JFC, I hope the entire global financial system is not ultimately grounded in r/WallStreetBets.
Click to expand...
I just use oilprice.com
 
SPY just hit the all-time high.

Assuming there is still anyone around to study this in 100 years, scholars will marvel at the stunning disconnect between the stock market and the real economy (or basic reality) on display.
 
ticapnews said:
SPY just hit the all-time high.

Assuming there is still anyone around to study this in 100 years, scholars will marvel at the stunning disconnect between the stock market and the real economy (or basic reality) on display.
Click to expand...
Polymarket is just next level stock market. It's all the same thing. Finance people can't help themselves and government refuses to regulate anything anymore. We are in the golden age of Reaganomics.
 
OUy0LZC.png


"Why lose, when you can win?"

Just ask us about our ChemE grads who helped develop the rainbow herbicides for Dow, who has also paid for major projects on campus.
 
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