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2026 Bracketology: The Road to the Aud

I can concede that SNC has enough "bad" losses (Eau Claire, Olaf, CUW) that they deserve to be behind some teams with weaker schedules (like Salve).

The Adrian/Utica comparison is the one I can't get over.

Adrian has losses to #7 Aurora (x5...ok maybe that is the problem) and #17 Trine (x2).

Utica has losses to #10 Adrian (x2), #1 Hobart (x2), #2 Hamilton, #13 Geneseo (x2).

Same number of losses. Similar "quality" of losses.

Adrian has two more wins than Utica (including two wins over Utica). Both teams have one tie against top 20 teams (Adrian's tie is "higher quality" but that is splitting hairs).

Both teams have taken care of business elsewhere.

Utica will probably be in regardless, while Adrian's season is probably over.
Looking over their profiles, one thing that stands out is that Adrian has played 16 games against teams outside the NPI top 50.
 
Looking over their profiles, one thing that stands out is that Adrian has played 16 games against teams outside the NPI top 50.
Hobart has played 15 games against teams below #50 (most of the SUNYAC, Brockport, Manhattanville, Elmira x2), Explains their SOS ranking of #73. Winning matters for sure.
 
Looking over their profiles, one thing that stands out is that Adrian has played 16 games against teams outside the NPI top 50.
Regionality is a big problem when it comes to NPI. D3 hockey has two almost completely distinct leagues in the East and West regions. There is very little overlap in scheduling between the two (Adrian is maybe the only West team that routinely schedules East teams).

The East region has a much higher degree of variation in team strength between conferences. This results in a conference like the NESCAC racking up a strong non-conference record, boosting the SOS of teams in that conference.

On the other hand, the West region has a high degree of parity. Outside of a few top teams (which tend to come from one conference, the NCHA), West teams typically beat up on each other in non-conference play. This results in interconference records close to 0.500, which means relatively lower SOS across the board. Making matters worse is that for NCHA teams, there are really only 15 other teams to draw from in non-conference play. This leads to a high number of intra-conference non-conference games, further pulling records towards 0.500.

As a result of all of this, there is no good way to compare two teams from separate regions.

This is a crazy suggestion that I don't really like, but it almost seems like the only fair way to split at large bids is to give 1 at large bid to the best team in the West, and give the other 3 to the three best teams in the East. This is almost perfectly proportional in terms of the number of teams in each region. There are years where a strong West team would get screwed out of an at large bid and vice versa. But if there is no way to fairly compare teams across region, this almost seems like the only fair approach.

Alternatively, the NCHA and MIAC could combine forces and realign their 19 total teams into 3 conferences of 6 or 7 teams each. That would guarantee that the West gets at least 4 teams in every season. Geography would make this a non-starter unless you pulled in the WIAC and realigned all 25 West teams.
 
Hobart has played 15 games against teams below #50 (most of the SUNYAC, Brockport, Manhattanville, Elmira x2), Explains their SOS ranking of #73. Winning matters for sure.
The two paths towards a high NPI ranking are:
  1. Rack up a very high (85+%) win percentage against a mostly weak schedule
  2. Rack up a bunch of Quality Losses™️ and hope that the other teams in your conference are able to rack up wins in non-conference play (or hope that the best teams in your conference don't waste non-conference games on each other).
 
Another idea could be to create committees comprised of a handful of coaches, athletic directors, and SIDs from both the Eastern and Western regions. These committees could rank the teams in their respective region at the end of each season, and each teams portfolio could be compared heads-up against a school from the other region. This would allow some subjective reasoning, ie. strength of conference, head to head results, results vs. common opponents, etc.

To make this work, secrecy would be essential. It would be critical that these meetings be held only after 11pm in darkly lit rooms located in undisclosed locations. Committee appointment should be prioritized to coaches and AD's who are still smokers, and preferably come from a background in sports other than ice hockey (or no sport at all.)

;)
 
Part of the problem also was how small the d3 tournament was for so long. D1 has a 16 team tourney for 64 teams. We're now at 91 teams and were just getting to 15 teams next year. If we get to 5-6 at large bids the top 10 of the entire NPI is in and im fine with that. That 10-15 range always seems to be the cut off between the really good teams and the great teams.
 
Part of the problem also was how small the d3 tournament was for so long. D1 has a 16 team tourney for 64 teams. We're now at 91 teams and were just getting to 15 teams next year. If we get to 5-6 at large bids the top 10 of the entire NPI is in and im fine with that. That 10-15 range always seems to be the cut off between the really good teams and the great teams.
Barring realignment that means there will be 5 at large bids next year.

I'm fine with teams outside the top 10 needing an AQ to get in. I just no longer have any faith in using the NPI to determine the top 10.
 
Another idea could be to create committees comprised of a handful of coaches, athletic directors, and SIDs from both the Eastern and Western regions. These committees could rank the teams in their respective region at the end of each season, and each teams portfolio could be compared heads-up against a school from the other region. This would allow some subjective reasoning, ie. strength of conference, head to head results, results vs. common opponents, etc.

To make this work, secrecy would be essential. It would be critical that these meetings be held only after 11pm in darkly lit rooms located in undisclosed locations. Committee appointment should be prioritized to coaches and AD's who are still smokers, and preferably come from a background in sports other than ice hockey (or no sport at all.)

;)
For the love of God, no!!!! That said, the "smoke filled room" spark some of the most intense, creative conversation I ever saw on here!
 
Barring realignment that means there will be 5 at large bids next year.

I'm fine with teams outside the top 10 needing an AQ to get in. I just no longer have any faith in using the NPI to determine the top 10.
Salve and the NESCAC performing so well OOC threw a wrench into the formula. Last year was the first year using NPI and there were no issues about the ranking. The final 4 consisted of 4 of the top 5 NPI teams going into the tournament.
 
Salve and the NESCAC performing so well OOC threw a wrench into the formula. Last year was the first year using NPI and there were no issues about the ranking. The final 4 consisted of 4 of the top 5 NPI teams going into the tournament.
4 of the top 6 (Aurora was #3 and SNC was #5). The West really dropped the ball in the quarterfinals 🤦‍♂️
 
I know. But right now (granted a one year outlier), I would be more concerned with getting to the semifinals before I bitch and moan about which Western teams get in.
I care if SNC makes it to the semifinals and I think I've accepted that they will only have the opportunity to do so if they win on Saturday. I don't care if Adrian or Aurora make it that far, but I think they both deserve to be playing in round 1 regardless of the result on Saturday.
 
The best day will be when we get to 16 teams and can do a D1-esque tournament. I wish we had a way to make the conferences a little bigger and lessen the amount of auto-bids, but that's probably a pipe dream.

If you had 16 teams this year, you add Adrian and St. Norbert to the at-large list and that bracket is so good.

We're 5 teams away from hitting that number with the D3 6:1 ratio, if my info is correct at least
 
So here we go: straight KRACH (or PW, or even RPI) selects the field and the seeding/siting, and if you don't like it- or can't raise/spend the money- then opt out and let the next team opt in.
 
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