The 2011 Boston Red Sox: This Space for Rent

[Rover]

Re: The 2011 Boston Red Sox: This Space for Rent

I don't think that's the thought. I think the thought is more that, while Papelbon is very, very good at what he does, he's not 5 years / $60 MM good, and they can find somebody who can close out games adequately well for a lot less money than that.

But think about it: Will they find one guy to do that, over 5 years time, or will they sign 20 guys over that time in the hopes of finding somebody to do the job? I read that the team is thinking about stocking up on free agent signings for the bullpen in the expectation that many of them won't work out or will get hurt. Great, but that all adds up especially when its veteran players. Then next year you have to do it all over again. I personally would like to see them pay more for consistancy. Papelbon has been remarkably good over his tenure here year in and year out.

If they were a small market team forced into this decision because of money problems, I'd understand. Maybe it will all work out in the end. But sometimes I think these GM's get too cute for their own good. I'm sure some statistical models argued against Mariano Rivera continuing his high level of performance as he neared 40 years old. Yet there he is several years beyond that and still one of the top closers in the league. I would have figured Papelbon for a nice 15 year run with the Sox too had this been handled better.

[Craig P.]

Re: The 2011 Boston Red Sox: This Space for Rent

But think about it: Will they find one guy to do that, over 5 years time

It's legitimate to question whether Papelbon can do it over 5 years time.

I'm sure some statistical models argued against Mariano Rivera continuing his high level of performance as he neared 40 years old. Yet there he is several years beyond that and still one of the top closers in the league. I would have figured Papelbon for a nice 15 year run with the Sox too had this been handled better.

Isn't there an injury history of some sort with Papelbon that doesn't exist with Rivera?

[Rover]

Re: The 2011 Boston Red Sox: This Space for Rent

It's legitimate to question whether Papelbon can do it over 5 years time.


Isn't there an injury history of some sort with Papelbon that doesn't exist with Rivera?

I don't see why not. Papelbon's a fairly young guy. Not aware of any major injuries with him either, although maybe somebody can refresh my memory if there is. Basically you're replacing a known, high quality guy for a bunch of unknowns who may be cheaper individually, but collectively start to add up. That's fine if money is a big problem for your team. It isn't for the Sox so I don't like the crying poverty routine out of them. If they wanted to match the Phils offer, they could have so I'd like to know why they didn't.

[SteveF]

I don't see why not. Papelbon's a fairly young guy. Not aware of any major injuries with him either, although maybe somebody can refresh my memory if there is. Basically you're replacing a known, high quality guy for a bunch of unknowns who may be cheaper individually, but collectively start to add up. That's fine if money is a big problem for your team. It isn't for the Sox so I don't like the crying poverty routine out of them. If they wanted to match the Phils offer, they could have so I'd like to know why they didn't.

It's not the poverty; but you are right in the organization does not value bullpen arms. They are seen as replaceable and unpredictable in all advanced scouting metrics. Add that to the draft picks he nets them by leaving and it was a no brainier.

The fact that the phillies overpaid is a convenient PR spin for them

[ScottK]

Re: The 2011 Boston Red Sox: This Space for Rent

Papelbon's a fairly young guy. Not aware of any major injuries with him either, although maybe somebody can refresh my memory if there is.

Papelbon turns 31 next week. There aren't many relievers worth $13M a year at age 34, which is how old he'll be for the final year of his contract (not counting the option).

As for injuries, he missed the final month of the 2006 season with a shoulder injury.

[Rover]

Re: The 2011 Boston Red Sox: This Space for Rent

Papelbon turns 31 next week. There aren't many relievers worth $13M a year at age 34, which is how old he'll be for the final year of his contract (not counting the option).

As for injuries, he missed the final month of the 2006 season with a shoulder injury.

How many other relievers worth that money is irrelevant. I'm talking about a specific player. Missing one month 5 years ago doesn't seem like he's injury prone to me. If you have a durable reliever performing at a high level, I don't see why you would just watch him walk without a care in the world.

EDIT: Its a little like the Ortiz situation. You know what you're going to get from him (30 HR's, 90+ RBI's). Yeah, you could crank up the stats model and say don't give a 36 year old DH a two year contract because you can probably find somebody else who's GRIT+ will match Papi's, but really - why go through all that when there's other holes to fill on the team (like two starters and several middle relievers not to mention someone to play RF)? If money isn't an object (and it isn't) and you already have two positions filled (closer and DH) I'm not sure I'd recommend making them an issue by letting talent walk. The funny thing would be if they then turned around and signed Wakefield and Varitek back, two players who really haven't done anything to deserve to be resigned.

[Priceless]

Re: The 2011 Boston Red Sox: This Space for Rent

Bobby Valentine? Sure.

[Rover]

Re: The 2011 Boston Red Sox: This Space for Rent

Bobby Valentine? Sure.

If true I like this move a lot. I thought he did a good job with the Mets particularly their WS year. Plus managing in NY he's used to the pressure and scrutiny that comes with the job up here.

[Hammer]

Re: The 2011 Boston Red Sox: This Space for Rent

Per ESPN, Bobby Valentine has accepted the managerial job.

[JF_Gophers]

Re: The 2011 Boston Red Sox: This Space for Rent

Bobby is an odd guy, but just listening to him you can tell he knows baseball. Also as was stated, he has managed under the bright lights of NY, so Boston shouldn't get to him.

Seems like a solid veteran hire. Which is actually not what I expected.

[NMU8405]

Re: The 2011 Boston Red Sox: This Space for Rent

Blue Jays offered John Ferrel for Clay Buchholz

[Rover]

Re: The 2011 Boston Red Sox: This Space for Rent

I like the guy already, only because he's driving negative reactions from half the no talent numbnuts in the press over him allegedly being a jerk. Anybody who PO's the sportswriters can't be all that bad in my book. This is exactly what the team needs. First order of business is to kick Beckett's @ ss into shape and the rest of the starters (Lester & Buchholz) will follow.

[CLS]

Re: The 2011 Boston Red Sox: This Space for Rent

I can't help but thinking that, similar to the Crawford signing being related to NESN's rankings tanking, the the hiring of a high profile manager is closely related to the fact that tickets go on sale December 10. I.e. that this is a business decision, not a baseball decision, and that's why it appears that Lucchino was apparently heavily involved and it may not have been primarily Cherington's decision.

[NMU8405]

Re: The 2011 Boston Red Sox: This Space for Rent

I can't help but thinking that, similar to the Crawford signing being related to NESN's rankings tanking, the the hiring of a high profile manager is closely related to the fact that tickets go on sale December 10. I.e. that this is a business decision, not a baseball decision, and that's why it appears that Lucchino was apparently heavily involved and it may not have been primarily Cherington's decision.

Actually the Winter Meetings drove this hiring. They start next week, and if you go into the meetings without a manager its going to be hard to woo free agents to your team.

[CLS]

Re: The 2011 Boston Red Sox: This Space for Rent

Actually the Winter Meetings drove this hiring. They start next week, and if you go into the meetings without a manager its going to be hard to woo free agents to your team.

Yes, good point with regard to when they hired. I was referring more to who they hired. Hiring Gene Lamont probably wouldn't do much for ticket sales. The Red Sox might think hiring a celebrity manager would.