College Football 2010: Dude, Where's my Conference?

[Patman]

Re: College Football 2010: Dude, Where's my Conference?

This is a load of crap.

There's been plenty of planning and strategizing, it's all just been done behind the scenes.

Think of all the college hockey realignment proposals we've seen. How many of them end up massively screwing over a few teams? Even if those proposals are entirely rational and thought-out, you expect those schools to just roll over and take it?

No, the end product won't be clean, but that won't change with more 'planning.' That's not how systems like this evolve.

You can "plan" to build a shed... but you may end up splitting a board with a nail... or even splitting your thumb nail with a hammer.

There may be planning and strategizing... I'm saying that the hypothetical perfect super-conference breakaway league requires a fair bit of planning and not this adhoc strategery that we're going to see go down in the next month.

That isn't to say they couldn't break away in the end... but, it wouldn't shock me that one of these conferences end up with a round number of teams or accept somebody they didn't want... or so on. What is to say the pac-10 doesn't split after getting to 16 because of opposing interests?

edit: i still get the feeling that some of these winners won't be getting what they are looking for.

edit #2: Do you think that a lot of planning wasn't involved in launching the "Challenger" shuttle... the "best laid plans of mice and men" and all that stuff. Hell, look at the market... all you need is a healthy dose of hubris and confusion.

[dxmnkd316]

Re: College Football 2010: Dude, Where's my Conference?

Should I believe the rumors about a WCHA Football Conference?

No. I'm starting a counter.

[blockski]

Re: College Football 2010: Dude, Where's my Conference?

You can "plan" to build a shed... but you may end up splitting a board with a nail... or even splitting your thumb nail with a hammer.

There may be planning and strategizing... I'm saying that the hypothetical perfect super-conference breakaway league requires a fair bit of planning and not this adhoc strategery that we're going to see go down in the next month.

That isn't to say they couldn't break away in the end... but, it wouldn't shock me that one of these conferences end up with a round number of teams or accept somebody they didn't want... or so on. What is to say the pac-10 doesn't split after getting to 16 because of opposing interests?

edit: i still get the feeling that some of these winners won't be getting what they are looking for.

edit #2: Do you think that a lot of planning wasn't involved in launching the "Challenger" shuttle... the "best laid plans of mice and men" and all that stuff. Hell, look at the market... all you need is a healthy dose of hubris and confusion.

And how do you know this is ad hoc 'strategery'?

You can't be the Big Ten and saw "I want teams X, Y, and Z" and get it to happen. Instead, you say "I want Nebraska and a few others" and you anticipate the moves of other conferences and plan accordingly. You pick off a school like Nebraska first because they're already a good fit with a strong brand and fanbase, and they are also unhappy with their current arrangement. Maybe you want Notre Dame, but you can't lead with that because you won't get them to join under those circumstances. It's all about the sequencing.

Just because you're not privy to their plans and forecasts doesn't mean a plan doesn't exist.

And of course some conference will end up with someone they don't want - again, there will be winners and losers. You try to set that out in advance and convince the losers of the deal that they should just accept it and agree to it.

As to your first edit - whether they get what they wanted or not is irrelevant, the old system wasn't sustainable under the current financial pressures. Change was inevitable.

As to your second edit - this is strategic planning and it's a political process. Comparing it to precision engineering and manufacturing is a false comparison. That's a top-down process controlled from the start, while this is a process with multiple independent actors each protecting their own self-interest. I don't see the relevance of your comparison.

[GreatLakerMohawk]

Re: College Football 2010: Dude, Where's my Conference?

This is about television markets and cable network money.

Rutgers --> NYC TV market --> money.

Won't argue this point at all. Big Ten's always been about making money and they're making a ton of it off of their network now. Schools should want in on that to get a cut of the money. Big Ten can afford to not tip their hand to anyone.

Big XII fell asleep at the wheel by falling back on Fox Sports regional groups to broadcast their games. They also ruined themselves by being the lone conference to really raise a stink against the playoff system.

[Handyman]

Re: College Football 2010: Dude, Where's my Conference?

As long as were talking rumors I just got this forwarded to me from a friend. He got it from the board on the local paper site.

I would say there is about zero percent chance that is true...but at this point we can't really rule anything out. 2 months ago would anyone assume we would be here?

[Craig P.]

Re: College Football 2010: Dude, Where's my Conference?

USC got hammered. They lose 30 initial counters over three years (with an overall limit each year of 75) in addition to the bowl ban.

That's about what Miami got, and if I remember right, the Hurricanes were knocked flat for four or five years.

[Craig P.]

Re: College Football 2010: Dude, Where's my Conference?

I won't argue that at all.

What I will say is that Rutgers is the excuse for the Big Ten Network to demand entry into NYC television markets (and all of the cable dollars that come with that).

They can demand until they're blue in the face; without the necessary critical mass of interest in the market, the providers will tell them to pound sand.

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: College Football 2010: Dude, Where's my Conference?

I would say there is about zero percent chance that is true...but at this point we can't really rule anything out. 2 months ago would anyone assume we would be here?

Zero percent then? You're not even going to give it a 0.0000001% chance?

[Hammer]

Re: College Football 2010: Dude, Where's my Conference?

USC got hammered. They lose 30 initial counters over three years (with an overall limit each year of 75) in addition to the bowl ban.

That's about what Miami got, and if I remember right, the Hurricanes were knocked flat for four or five years.

So that makes for a 15-man class each of the next three years? Do I read that properly? I suspect that's about as close to the death penalty that we're going to see for a while.

[Craig P.]

Re: College Football 2010: Dude, Where's my Conference?

By "similar" payout, you mean "double the", right? And I doubt NBC will pay more than they do currently, since ND's 2.4 average last year lags behind CBS's 4.4 average for the SEC and ABC's 3.9 for the season.

No, I mean similar.

The Integer gets about 22 million per school, total.

ND gets something like 15 million from NBC if rumors are to be believed. In a good year, we'll get at least 4 million in bowl money, and we get about 2 million from the Big East for non-football sports.

[Craig P.]

Re: College Football 2010: Dude, Where's my Conference?

So that makes for a 15-man class each of the next three years? Do I read that properly? I suspect that's about as close to the death penalty that we're going to see for a while.

It looks like it's pretty much the most serious sanction the NCAA has the stomach to levy after giving SMU the death penalty. Miami got 31 scholarships over three years, Alabama got 21 over three years.

[Handyman]

Re: College Football 2010: Dude, Where's my Conference?

Zero percent then? You're not even going to give it a 0.0000001% chance?

I said ABOUT zero...anything is possible

[Craig P.]

Re: College Football 2010: Dude, Where's my Conference?

Regarding your point about only Texas and Notre Dame paying for themselves, I disagree. A buddy of mine pointed out that Kansas would more than pay for itself as well. In fact, Kansas brought in $3 million more than Notre Dame in 2009.

How would Kansas pay for itself with the Big Ten? They need to add $22 million in overall conference revenue. That means they need to be worth $22 million combined among the various sports contracts (and, hypothetically, improved bowl tie-ins). Considering that college basketball isn't really a big deal money-wise, what does KU have to offer other than the relatively small KC market?

For that matter, *** is your source on KU bringing in $3 MM more than ND in '09? Personally, I highly doubt that's true. The XII TV contract is subpar AND I'd imagine that the unequal revenue sharing is not kind to KU.

[CLS]

Re: College Football 2010: Dude, Where's my Conference?

USC got hammered. They lose 30 initial counters over three years (with an overall limit each year of 75) in addition to the bowl ban.

That's about what Miami got, and if I remember right, the Hurricanes were knocked flat for four or five years.

Sucks that slimeball Pete Carroll skipped town, and ordinarlly I'd feel sorry for his successor. But given who his successor is, I hope that they have a game scheduled with Tennesee in three years.

[Handyman]

Re: College Football 2010: Dude, Where's my Conference?

How would Kansas pay for itself with the Big Ten? They need to add $22 million in overall conference revenue. That means they need to be worth $22 million combined among the various sports contracts (and, hypothetically, improved bowl tie-ins). Considering that college basketball isn't really a big deal money-wise, what does KU have to offer other than the relatively small KC market?

For that matter, *** is your source on KU bringing in $3 MM more than ND in '09? Personally, I highly doubt that's true. The XII TV contract is subpar AND I'd imagine that the unequal revenue sharing is not kind to KU.

Here are the numbers from 07-08 FWIW:

http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/spo...-tell-you.html

11th Kansas $86,009,257 Big 12
14th Notre Dame $83,352,439 Independent

That seems to be total athletic budget.

edit to add:

20th Nebraska $75,492,884 Big 12