Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

[Billy Blanks]

Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

The Tigers did OK. The Yankees fleeced everyone and made out like bandits. Kennedy is worthless. Austin Jackson is a work and progress and for every scout and insider who has said he's awesome there has been a naysayer in kind. But comparing their haul to the Yankees isn't the same because the Yankees didn't give up anything of value while the Tigers did. Max is the real deal, TINSTAAP and all that but Tigers fans should be excited about him. Schlereth we'll have to wait to see on him.

Giving up Edwin Jackson isn't a problem.

But make no mistake the team that won this was the Yankees who gave up very little and got back a lot in Granderson.

The team that got absolutely skull screwed was the D-Backs. Cannot figure them out.

A lot in Granderson?!?!?!

People value this guy WAY to much because he is likeable. In reality all he is and all he ever will be is an average ball player. What do we think Granderson will hit for the Yankees next year? I'm guessing around .260/340/450. And I bet it declines every year after that. If he plays left field, is that good enough from a $10-13 million corner outfielder?

The more I think about this trade I find myself looking at this like I do my investment portfolio. This is the equivalent of presumably selling high on both Granderson and Jackson. As fans, our emotions like Granderson, just like traders like a stock. If they were companies:

Granderson Inc.

The company says things we like, has a good pr department, and was a great buy back in the days when The Maybin Co. looked like the future star. Emperically, however has not produced very much recently. The CFO is telling us that the company they projected 5 years ago, looks more like the one today than the one three years ago, but the buying public keeps buying and inflating the price. The optimum time to sell is before bond holders are asked to make a significant reinvestment.

Jackson young arm LLC
The young startup turned heads 18 months ago as an emerging markets star. A new (often mistaken for durable) arm asset wowed investors. After a fast start, the product turned a little stale, and management was not able to adapt. After exhausting the market the company stumbled to a close. There are buyers who believe that a breath of fresh air could revitalize it, but that window will fade when the newness wears off.

Those are the downsides, but that is the risk. Both of these companies are sells.

[Billy Blanks]

Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

Nope. Trading the only skilled outfielder you have, a gold glove candidate, 30 hr guy, speed... for what? Prospects? So he can't hit lefties, big deal. So he has a mediocre arm- but he can catch and at the CoPa, that is the type of outfielder you need. You watch, the Yanks will turn him around. All this because the dumbazz GM was so shortsighted in signing Willis to an extension without him throwing a pitch, Robertson, Bonderman, Inge on two bad knees, MAGGLIO, Guillen...

so in the process we lose the two guys that have consistently been part of the offense... and that isn't even talking about the seven years left with Alkie Cabrera. Oh, but we got our .200 catcher and SS, not to mention those other AAA level outfielders. Dumbrowski should own up to his mistakes and take his medicine. He blew this deal and he blew the whole Polanco thing. So how much will it take to sign the two closers who rejected arbitration?

Wait until Verlander goes, and I guarantee you, he will.

Welcome back to the days when Toledo had more going for them then the parent club. Cleveland, you'll have company in the cellar.

The only extensions that I would say were "bad" extensions: Willis and maybe Guillen. Inge and Bonderman were healthy when they got their contracts - insurance usually covers any injuries (if they are placed on the DL).

As for Rodney and Lyon I say let them walk - we have more talented guys in the organization. Dombrowski doesn't just think about next year - he looks into the future when all the crappy contracts will be off the books.

He did not "blow" anything with Polanco - if he offers arbitration then you run the risk of Polanco coming back for another year. Why have a declining player at 2B when you have Sizemore, who can do the job for far less money and has earned a chance at the job? That's why companies have early-out retirements, to make better use of their money and inject fresh talent.

He IS owning up to his mistakes. It takes a huge pair to trade Curtis Granderson, knowing how much the fans like him. Look how upset you are right now that you can't even see the value in this trade because you're so in love with Granderson. I get it, people love him, but this does make sense for us to do.

[Billy Blanks]

Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Right. Maybe if we combine Bonderman, Willis and Zumaya we can get 9 innings. For the season.

Illitch has to be sitting back and wondering if Willis is worse than the Hatcher and Krupp deals on his other team.

Edit: I'll be shocked if this team wins 70 games as things stand. Plenty of good seats by July.

We have very solid pitching and I don't think our offense looks any worse than anyone else in our division. We're on par with the Twins. We have Cabrera, Ordonez, Guillen and Raburn/Thomas; they have Mauer, Morneau, Kubel and Young. Neither team has much outside of that. The White Sox have..? The Royals..? The Indians..? Who are we worse than and why?

[Hammer]

Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

He did not "blow" anything with Polanco - if he offers arbitration then you run the risk of Polanco coming back for another year. Why have a declining player at 2B when you have Sizemore, who can do the job for far less money and has earned a chance at the job? That's why companies have early-out retirements, to make better use of their money and inject fresh talent.

I don't buy this with Polanco. I would have offered arbitration. The worst case scenario is that he accepts arbitration and you have him for one more year, until such time that you can determine that Sizemore really can play 2B at the major league level. Now, we're in the position that if this kid is shows immediately that he can hit, and can play 2B like his hands aren't on backwards, it's a great move.

However, if he struggles the first month and is hitting .192 on May 1, and is showing that he needs more time in the minors, we've got a real problem. Ramon Santiago breaks down once you get past 200-250 at bats. The only year he's been above 300 at bats wasn't pretty, even though it was six years ago.

Sure, Polanco is in decline, but one more season to make sure that Sizemore is indeed ready likely would have been more prudent. In this scenario, if he shows that he's ready, you can always trade Polanco in May or June. It's not like you have to give him a 3 year deal, like Philly did.

[GreatLakerMohawk]

Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

Billy Boner - Granderson is going to hit 35-40 homers next year thanks to both Yankee Stadium and the lineup surrounding him. Also, and you're going to hate this, his BABIP was pretty low last year meaning he was also unlucky.

You're really going to dislike him in pinstripes. Just like you're really going to dislike Phil Coke in the old English "D."

[Hammer]

Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

We have very solid pitching and I don't think our offense looks any worse than anyone else in our division. We're on par with the Twins. We have Cabrera, Ordonez, Guillen and Raburn/Thomas; they have Mauer, Morneau, Kubel and Young. Neither team has much outside of that. The White Sox have..? The Royals..? The Indians..? Who are we worse than and why?

We have a very good front end, but the #4 and #5 starter options right now are troubling at best. For now I'll operate under the assumption that Scherzer is the #3 starter, and will fiil Jackson's shoes nicely, but after that? Uh-oh. Galarraga has been bad for a year and a half, and to pencil in anything out of Robertson, Bonderman or Bonine at this point is foolhardy at best.

We also have no closer, and right now, no proven set-up man. Best case scenario is that Ryan Perry spends the winter figuring out how to throw strikes and wins the 9th inning job in March. We gotta get him there first. Seay is fine for lefties, but you and I both know that we don't want Zach Miner in the game in the 8th inning when it's 3-2 and 2 runners on. He's best to get us through the 6th and 7th innings. There's nothing else sitting in the pen that makes me feel cozy when the 8th inning rolls around.

There's some serious holes to be filled. Don't go penciling this team in for 85 wins yet. That bit us in the *** in 2008.

[Billy Blanks]

Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

I don't buy this with Polanco. I would have offered arbitration. The worst case scenario is that he accepts arbitration and you have him for one more year, until such time that you can determine that Sizemore really can play 2B at the major league level. Now, we're in the position that if this kid is shows immediately that he can hit, and can play 2B like his hands aren't on backwards, it's a great move.

However, if he struggles the first month and is hitting .192 on May 1, and is showing that he needs more time in the minors, we've got a real problem. Ramon Santiago breaks down once you get past 200-250 at bats. The only year he's been above 300 at bats wasn't pretty, even though it was six years ago.

Sure, Polanco is in decline, but one more season to make sure that Sizemore is indeed ready likely would have been more prudent. In this scenario, if he shows that he's ready, you can always trade Polanco in May or June. It's not like you have to give him a 3 year deal, like Philly did.

In Sizemore, we are basically getting a player the exact opposite of Polanco. Placido never struck out and never took walks. Sizemore will K quite a bit and compensate for that with a good BB%. Polanco had no power, and made his living with a good BA and outstanding defense. Sizemore has pretty good pop in his bat for a 2B and will probably need to give us a OPS above .800 to make up for a defensive game that is only supposed to project to be average (will it get there?). To top it off, Polanco is in decline and Sizemore is about to hit his prime years. From all the reports I've read, Sizemore sounds like a high floor player who should be a pretty good player for us and an average to above average 2nd baseman.

But I think it's a moot point, because I don't think DD/Chadd value the comp picks all that much. And if you don't really want the picks, then it makes sense not to offer arbitration if you don't want the player.

[Billy Blanks]

Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

Streaker-

As for "Alkie" - he is arguably the best young hitter in baseball not named Mauer or Ramirez, and will be worth every penny of that $20 million per season. If he produces as well as "Alkie" Mantle did then the Tigers will care less about his choice of hobbies.

[Hammer]

Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

I don't doubt that in three years Sizemore will be a far better option at 2B than Polanco. However, that doesn't help us next season. If this kid struggles out of the gate, we've got very few options at all, and none that are appealing. A double play combo of Santiago/Everett, quite frankly, is not what I want in the lineup every day while this kid is putting his act back together in Toledo. We're asking an awful lot of a kid who has yet to take a major league at bat, and just broke his ankle about 4 weeks ago.

I suspect that Chadd values the 1st round pick of Philly (in this case) to be higher than we think, especially given his track record over the last 5-6 years in the 1st round, and also given the fact that Illitch has given the green light repeatedly to go over and above the MLB slot recommendations to sign these picks. Remember, the Tigers would have received more than a sandwich pick for Polanco.

Somebody was going to sign Polanco as a free agent. He wasn't accepting arbitration to come back, especially now that we know that he signed for 3 years in Philadelphia and isn't even going to play 2B. We likely would have wound up with somebody else's 1st round pick as well as our own, and unless Polanco ended up with the Yankees, it would have been higher than Philly's.

[Hammer]

Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

As for Cabrera, the proof is going to be in the pudding. If it doesn't become a recurring problem, and he doesn't go get loaded like a freight train the night before a big game at the end of a pennant race, fine.

But if this kid falls off the wagon and needs treatment, we've got more issues than Sports Illustrated, and any and all bets are off for everybody involved.

[Billy Blanks]

Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

Just like you're really going to dislike Phil Coke in the old English "D."

Yeah, I'm going to hate this...Phil Coke yielded only 44 hits in 60 innings of work in 2009. He held lefties to a .195 BAA and .584 OPS. Righties only hit .227 off him. His WHIP and (and HR/9 ) both suggest he'll allow fewer baserunners than Rodney. Not to mention he lost 18 lbs and got in much better physical shape. I was impressed with him last year, he throws hard, and can pitch back to back.

[bronconick]

Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

We have very solid pitching and I don't think our offense looks any worse than anyone else in our division. We're on par with the Twins. We have Cabrera, Ordonez, Guillen and Raburn/Thomas; they have Mauer, Morneau, Kubel and Young. Neither team has much outside of that. The White Sox have..? The Royals..? The Indians..? Who are we worse than and why?

This team imploded in the 2nd half of last year, primarily because the hitting sucked donkey balls. They're already staring at Inge, Everett and Laird playing most games, and now there are two more question marks at CF and 2B. Those 4 other positions might be the only guys hitting over .230.

There's nothing all that impressive about the bullpen, a pen that will likely see more use with the Jackson/Scherzer move, since Jackson pitched 20% more innings. Beyond that, there's a whole crapload of money tied into guys who can't even make the rotation.

Those kids might turn out in a couple years, but I think it more likely this team is selling off any expiring contracts in July next season ala Cleveland to actual contenders than anything else.

[Billy Blanks]

Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

Make a few adjustment for not playing on a parking lot anymore, adjust for weather...their pitching hasn't improved and with all that offense, they were decidedly below .500 until the middle of September...

[Billy Blanks]

Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFkN3HwHgH8

Austin Jackson Bio

His nickname is A-Jax.

[Terrierbyassociation]

Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

You know what's baffling. How someone can watch a lot of baseball and completely discount defense. How people cannot understand basic concepts like a player being a good defensive player in a hard and important defensive position like SS or CF makes them more valuable than a fat (and getting fatter) statue who plays the easiest defensive position in the game and plays it poorly.

Granderson is worth more than he's getting paid. We can't say the same about Cabrera.