2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather

[Ralph Baer]

The season won't start for a few days, but there is a possible fish storm. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[dxmnkd316]

Subscribed.

[Kepler]

Over/under year of first Cat 7: 2050

4: 130-154
5: 155-184
6: 185-219
7: 220+

[dxmnkd316]

Over/under year of first Cat 7: 2050

4: 130-154
5: 155-184
6: 185-219
7: 220+

I'll take the over. Only because it's extremely hard for me to fathom an EF5 tornado the size of a hurricane eyewall.

edit: Jesus. Apparently Patricia hit 215 sustained in the pacific. If you're talking strictly Atlantic, then Allen in 1980 hit 190 sustained. Even that is breathtaking.

so maybe the under?

edit 2: ok. Part of my problem is that I think of the worst tornadoes as those that scour the earth, nothing vertical left including grass. I would guess that's closer to the top end of the EF5 recorded tornado speeds. 200 mph, while devastating in every sense, doesn't necessarily erase everything in its path.

so when I see 220 mph "cat 7" and see that's north of EF5, I immediately think of the worst tornadoes from the news.

[Ralph Baer]

and so it begins.

T. S. Alberto

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...?cone#contents

[joecct]

Invest 95L bears watching. One week out, the models look like they're converging between/around Jamaica and Cuba.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#95L

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

I'll take the over. Only because it's extremely hard for me to fathom an EF5 tornado the size of a hurricane eyewall.

edit: Jesus. Apparently Patricia hit 215 sustained in the pacific. If you're talking strictly Atlantic, then Allen in 1980 hit 190 sustained. Even that is breathtaking.

so maybe the under?

edit 2: ok. Part of my problem is that I think of the worst tornadoes as those that scour the earth, nothing vertical left including grass. I would guess that's closer to the top end of the EF5 recorded tornado speeds. 200 mph, while devastating in every sense, doesn't necessarily erase everything in its path.

so when I see 220 mph "cat 7" and see that's north of EF5, I immediately think of the worst tornadoes from the news.

I'm waiting for the first 200+ MPH mega-hurricane to hit Miami/FLL, or Tampa, or Jacksonville. It's coming in our lifetimes, and you know that every affected "DoN't TrEaD oN mE!1!!!11!" Floriduh conservative will immediately demand a federal bailout.

[Proud2baLaker]

I'll take the over. Only because it's extremely hard for me to fathom an EF5 tornado the size of a hurricane eyewall.

edit: Jesus. Apparently Patricia hit 215 sustained in the pacific. If you're talking strictly Atlantic, then Allen in 1980 hit 190 sustained. Even that is breathtaking.

so maybe the under?

edit 2: ok. Part of my problem is that I think of the worst tornadoes as those that scour the earth, nothing vertical left including grass. I would guess that's closer to the top end of the EF5 recorded tornado speeds. 200 mph, while devastating in every sense, doesn't necessarily erase everything in its path.

so when I see 220 mph "cat 7" and see that's north of EF5, I immediately think of the worst tornadoes from the news.

The highest wind speed ever recorded on earth was at 302 mph (later revised to 321 mph after additional analysis) during the 1999 Bridge Creek-Moore Tornado in Oklahoma. However, the official "record" does not count tornadic events so the 254 mph from Cyclone Olivia in 1996 (which struck Northern/Western Australia) still holds the official record.

There are 9 tornados that have had wind speeds above that 254. With 3 above 300 mph. 4 of the top 5 and 6 of the 9 were in Oklahoma. Those speeds were as recorded by mobile doppler and other mobile radar units. Some of those 9 were classified as only EF3/EF4 because, while those mobile radars indicated extremely high wind speed, damage on the ground was not sufficient enough to rate higher.

Though there is no official observation, it is also believed, based on damage and other factors, that the 1925 Tri-State Tornado that hit Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana also had 300+ mph winds. There are others that are believed to have had 300+ mph winds as well.

The caveat here is that the windspeeds are not at ground level, often 100-400 feet up, so those winds are not what is causing the actual damage typically.

[joecct]

TS Beryl (formerly Invest 95L). Soon to be Hurricane Beryl.

[Ralph Baer]

TS Beryl (formerly Invest 95L). Soon to be Hurricane Beryl.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...?cone#contents

[Kepler]

Because what Haiti really needs now...

[dxmnkd316]

Because what Haiti really needs now...

Because the universe isn't just, it's absolutely going to be Haiti that gets the first Cat 7 landfall.

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

There are 9 tornados that have had wind speeds above that 254. With 3 above 300 mph. 4 of the top 5 and 6 of the 9 were in Oklahoma. Those speeds were as recorded by mobile doppler and other mobile radar units. Some of those 9 were classified as only EF3/EF4 because, while those mobile radars indicated extremely high wind speed, damage on the ground was not sufficient enough to rate higher.

I hear it's a terrific place to build a supertall.

[Kepler]

From what I read (Browsed. While inebriated.) the alley has shifted east out of Oklahoma, and now it's Arkansas and Missouri that will get pounded.

[dxmnkd316]

From what I read (Browsed. While inebriated.) the alley has shifted east out of Oklahoma, and now it's Arkansas and Missouri that will get pounded.

I've read the same thing. I suspect there's some, or even a good amount of truth to that.

I still wouldn't build skyscrapers in Oklahoma given it's one of the most seismically active areas not on the pacific coast.