2024 Elections: One Last Chance for Democracy

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Mookie is reading Donnie’s emails again. Dementia Donnie is the only person saying Minnesota is in play

[First Time, Long Time]

You guys aren’t looking at state by state polling.

and it’s not like someone can’t pencil their oval for abortion rights AND THEN for the Donald.

right now it’s like 330-118 against biden. Heck MN and WA are even for the Donald right now…

Look at how most polls are done and the fact that they're still mostly calling landlines and you'll see why most people don't trust polls anymore.

[First Time, Long Time]

You know how I know Trump's base is stupid? They're actually trying to claim there were 100,000 people at his event in New Jersey last night and the MAGAts are lapping it up

[rufus]

You know how I know Trump's base is stupid? They're actually trying to claim there were 100,000 people at his event in New Jersey last night and the MAGAts are lapping it up

"Bigger crowds than Springsteen!!!"

[unofan]

The problem isn't the polls but most people's interpretation of them. People suck with visualizing chances and probabilities.

Most people see X candidates is up 5 points and think that means the favored candidate is 100% going to win, when it's really more like a 60% chance. Which means the trailing candidate still has a 40% chance, which is roughly the same as hitting a 5 or 9 on a craps table. Which happens all the farking time.

[mookie1995]

There is another shot from the stage in the comments...more people go to SCSU hockey games. But I'm sure NJ is in play to....

um, nj is NOT in play. solid D for biden.

[Handyman]

um, nj is NOT in play. solid D for biden.

But yet Minnesota is. Minnesota where the Governor has been Blue for over a decade, both houses are Blue and where the majority of the people live in The Cities which are...say it with me now...BLUE!

mookie, let me tell you a little something I have to point out every two years or so and everyone always seems to forget. Right about now there is always polling that shows the Dems are in trouble here. Whether it is Omar (my rep) who is going to struggle, or Angie Craig, or Keith Ellison will lose to some no name lawyer, or Tina Smith is going to have issues with Jason Lewis (hey dx remember that poll that had them tied in like July) and it is super close, or Tim Walz is being pressured by some rando for Governor or that the National GOP is going to find a way to flip the state in the Presidential...it is always something. Then, when all is said and done the margins end up being almost always the same. Ya know why, because polling tends to overcompensate for the mass amounts of people in a few population centers by over-polling outstate. Outstate, where the cows outpopulate the people. That gins up the "Its gonna be a close race!!111!" headlines that the networks and newspapers love and everyone freaks out for the summer...until the State Fair hits and you really see how things are playing out. And this is how it plays out in those "horse races":

Tina Smith won by almost 6% and she might be the most boring candidate ever.
Omar deals with a primary challenge and then they announce she won the actual election 2 minutes after the polls close. (which would be true of any Dem in her district)
Tim Walz wins by 8% and laughs his way to re-election
Angie Craig won her re-election with 51% of the vote...a district that previous to her was Red for like 15 years.
Keith Ellison is still the AG. (though that was close)

Minnesota is not in play.

[Handyman]

The problem isn't the polls but most people's interpretation of them. People suck with visualizing chances and probabilities.

Most people see X candidates is up 5 points and think that means the favored candidate is 100% going to win, when it's really more like a 60% chance. Which means the trailing candidate still has a 40% chance, which is roughly the same as hitting a 5 or 9 on a craps table. Which happens all the farking time.

That is a very large part of it...but I gave up on that fight a long time ago. Nate Silver used to be a real pro at pointing that out in ways even an idiot could understand...but he abandoned that for bad pundit style takes and awful COVID analysis.

But don't discount how polling is done. (another thing Silver used to be great at dumbing down for people) The other problem people have is they never look at who is being polled. I will leave the "no one answers their phone" argument out of this for now...the problem is many of the groups conducting polls are not making their samples truly representative. Let's say your state is 2-1 city to rural. If your poll is 3-1 rural to city (these are obviously just made up numbers to prove a point) that is not going to tell you a true story about how the voters in your state feel. And it isn't always nefarious (though with some it is though it is easy to tell) some it is necessity, some it is just random bad luck, some it is just flawed methodology. And the thing is, that was always part of the issue but before many of the mainstream pollsters or media groups behind the polls were a bit better at explaining or checking/backing up the data before releasing it into the wild. 25 years ago the NY Times poll that came out around Super Tuesday would have scrutinized more by the Times than it was. Now they want their poll out there for the headlines (especially since it was right near some important primaries) and by the time people really look into it the narrative is out there. Polling has just become another arm of the "We need to be first and damn the consequences!" media approach that is prevalent these days.

But yeah, the lack of ability amongst the people to understand probability is kind of mind-boggling! Especially since sports shows you how it works literally every day in an easily digestible manner.

[rufus]

The problem isn't the polls but most people's interpretation of them. People suck with visualizing chances and probabilities.

Most people see X candidates is up 5 points and think that means the favored candidate is 100% going to win, when it's really more like a 60% chance. Which means the trailing candidate still has a 40% chance, which is roughly the same as hitting a 5 or 9 on a craps table. Which happens all the farking time.

Also, being up 5 points doesn't mean squat when the margin of error is 5 points.

[Handyman]

https://www.threads.net/@aaron.rupar...ZcBimSeRF2WpQw

Trump vows to deport pro-Palestinian college campus protesters

How do you deport American students exactly?

[Handyman]

https://www.threads.net/@gtconway3/p...y5wMoX0NTLQ0Yw

That one made me think of mookie

[dxmnkd316]

That is a very large part of it...but I gave up on that fight a long time ago. Nate Silver used to be a real pro at pointing that out in ways even an idiot could understand...but he abandoned that for bad pundit style takes and awful COVID analysis.

But don't discount how polling is done. (another thing Silver used to be great at dumbing down for people) The other problem people have is they never look at who is being polled. I will leave the "no one answers their phone" argument out of this for now...the problem is many of the groups conducting polls are not making their samples truly representative. Let's say your state is 2-1 city to rural. If your poll is 3-1 rural to city (these are obviously just made up numbers to prove a point) that is not going to tell you a true story about how the voters in your state feel. And it isn't always nefarious (though with some it is though it is easy to tell) some it is necessity, some it is just random bad luck, some it is just flawed methodology. And the thing is, that was always part of the issue but before many of the mainstream pollsters or media groups behind the polls were a bit better at explaining or checking/backing up the data before releasing it into the wild. 25 years ago the NY Times poll that came out around Super Tuesday would have scrutinized more by the Times than it was. Now they want their poll out there for the headlines (especially since it was right near some important primaries) and by the time people really look into it the narrative is out there. Polling has just become another arm of the "We need to be first and damn the consequences!" media approach that is prevalent these days.

But yeah, the lack of ability amongst the people to understand probability is kind of mind-boggling! Especially since sports shows you how it works literally every day in an easily digestible manner.

I do remember. Do you remember that link that I posted showing the aggregators were within 1-2% or so of the popular vote? Because you can point to individual errant polls all you want, I still stand by the fact that the polls by and large did get it and most other races right.

[mookie1995]

But yet Minnesota is. Minnesota where the Governor has been Blue for over a decade, both houses are Blue and where the majority of the people live in The Cities which are...say it with me now...BLUE!

mookie, let me tell you a little something I have to point out every two years or so and everyone always seems to forget. Right about now there is always polling that shows the Dems are in trouble here. Whether it is Omar (my rep) who is going to struggle, or Angie Craig, or Keith Ellison will lose to some no name lawyer, or Tina Smith is going to have issues with Jason Lewis (hey dx remember that poll that had them tied in like July) and it is super close, or Tim Walz is being pressured by some rando for Governor or that the National GOP is going to find a way to flip the state in the Presidential...it is always something. Then, when all is said and done the margins end up being almost always the same. Ya know why, because polling tends to overcompensate for the mass amounts of people in a few population centers by over-polling outstate. Outstate, where the cows outpopulate the people. That gins up the "Its gonna be a close race!!111!" headlines that the networks and newspapers love and everyone freaks out for the summer...until the State Fair hits and you really see how things are playing out. And this is how it plays out in those "horse races":

Tina Smith won by almost 6% and she might be the most boring candidate ever.
Omar deals with a primary challenge and then they announce she won the actual election 2 minutes after the polls close. (which would be true of any Dem in her district)
Tim Walz wins by 8% and laughs his way to re-election
Angie Craig won her re-election with 51% of the vote...a district that previous to her was Red for like 15 years.
Keith Ellison is still the AG. (though that was close)

Minnesota is not in play.

Everybody hates “congress”, but loves their congressperson.

[rufus]

https://www.threads.net/@aaron.rupar...ZcBimSeRF2WpQw



How do you deport American students exactly?

Pretty easy when your new administration is populated by true believers who will work to do what you want regardless of what the laws say, and whether what you want to do is legal or not.

[ScoobyDoo]

Everybody hates “congress”, but loves their congressperson.

I don't like mine. I may have at one time, but not anymore and not ever again.