2024 Elections: One Last Chance for Democracy

[Handyman]

Mayor of Waukesha, Wisconsin endorses Harris.

https://www.fox6now.com/news/waukesh...-kamala-harris

[Jeb2020]

Ooopsie Poopsie just some good old Human Rights Crimes

Mengele would be proud.

https://x.com/rstorechildhood/status...mrW4iah6iccUyA

[rufus]

Oh, this is good.

https://x.com/MeidasTouch/status/184...mi-in-progress

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

I really should have booked a trip somewhere out of the country for the next 2 weeks...my anxiety is off the charts.

I hear ya. Between the election and a couple of the work projects I'm leading that are slated to go-live next month, I really wish my vacation next week wasn't a domestic trip.

[rufus]

Times are tough, the economy sucks, why........folks have barely enough money to buy 120 guns these days.

https://apnews.com/article/tempe-ari...dfd1612600854a

Let alone the 250,000 rounds of ammo.

Seriously, gun nut Drew, what possible reason would a person have to own 200 guns? Need them for hunting? Self defense?

[ScoobyDoo]

I hear ya. Between the election and a couple of the work projects I'm leading that are slated to go-live next month, I really wish my vacation next week wasn't a domestic trip.

If he wins I may have to just go dark on some social media, and news programs altogether.

[rufus]

Not a cult. And certainly not weird.

https://x.com/brianstelter/status/1849249676609908856

[Handyman]

If he wins I may have to just go dark on some social media, and news programs altogether.

I am going that way as well. I don't want to but its out of my control what he will be able to do and foaming at the mouth over it will only make things worse.

[psych]

24 high-quality polls, as defined by 538, from 9/25 to 10/24 in Pennsylvania, have Harris averaging 49.0% and Trump averaging 47.21%. All 59 polls between 9/25 and 10/24 have Harris averaging 48.32% and Trump averaging 47.54%.
So, what’s 538 trend-line look like for Pennsylvania? Before 9/25, Kamala averaged 48.1% in the polls. After those 59 polls where she averaged 48.32%, or 49.0% if you only use high-quality polls as defined by 538 themselves, her average is down to 47.6%. Seems a little…math doesn’t add up…
Trump? After averaging 47.1% before 9/25, Trump’s now averaging 47.9%, despite the 24 high-quality polls since 9/25 showing him averaging 47.21%. The 59 total polls averaged him at 47.54%, which is still below the 47.9% he’s now allegedly averaging since the beginning in PA. Hell, take out the good polls and use just the junk ones, and Trump’s average in those is only 47.66% since 9/25. Math…doesn’t…add…up…

[Handyman]

Times are tough, the economy sucks, why........folks have barely enough money to buy 120 guns these days.

https://apnews.com/article/tempe-ari...dfd1612600854a

Let alone the 250,000 rounds of ammo.

Seriously, gun nut Drew, what possible reason would a person have to own 200 guns? Need them for hunting? Self defense?

[Jimjamesak]

24 high-quality polls, as defined by 538, from 9/25 to 10/24 in Pennsylvania, have Harris averaging 49.0% and Trump averaging 47.21%. All 59 polls between 9/25 and 10/24 have Harris averaging 48.32% and Trump averaging 47.54%.
So, what’s 538 trend-line look like for Pennsylvania? Before 9/25, Kamala averaged 48.1% in the polls. After those 59 polls where she averaged 48.32%, or 49.0% if you only use high-quality polls as defined by 538 themselves, her average is down to 47.6%. Seems a little…math doesn’t add up…
Trump? After averaging 47.1% before 9/25, Trump’s now averaging 47.9%, despite the 24 high-quality polls since 9/25 showing him averaging 47.21%. The 59 total polls averaged him at 47.54%, which is still below the 47.9% he’s now allegedly averaging since the beginning in PA. Hell, take out the good polls and use just the junk ones, and Trump’s average in those is only 47.66% since 9/25. Math…doesn’t…add…up…

Ah it’s fine, the pollsters are incredibly smart and have totally accounted for all the variables that could affect their models. They are in no way moving numbers around for totally political reasons.

[Handyman]

Ah it’s fine, the pollsters are incredibly smart and have totally accounted for all the variables that could affect their models. They are in no way moving numbers around for totally political reasons.

Look I have said 538 is trash for quite a while now (no I dont care that Nate isn't involved) but they used to at least explain why the math didn't match. Anything here or is the answer just "ABC owns us and they want to fudge the numbers"?

[Scarlet]

You know who's from Houston? Beyonce.

Called it!

https://x.com/nytimes/status/1849483499549430175

[Jimjamesak]

Look I have said 538 is trash for quite a while now (no I dont care that Nate isn't involved) but they used to at least explain why the math didn't match. Anything here or is the answer just "ABC owns us and they want to fudge the numbers"?

I was just making fun of the people online who have been bending over backwards to try defend the ridiculous polling stuff.

[unofan]

Look I have said 538 is trash for quite a while now (no I dont care that Nate isn't involved) but they used to at least explain why the math didn't match. Anything here or is the answer just "ABC owns us and they want to fudge the numbers"?

Hazarding a guess:
Trends are towards Trump, however slightly, and 538's model is designed to give weight to trends over static numbers.
Likely Voter vs. Registered Voter adjustments - Harris does better with the latter, but the models are typically based on the former.
The most recent poll is an Emerson College one, which is a typically very good one and has Trump at +2, so it's probably given outsized weight, especially if it marked a shift from Emmerson College's last poll.