2024 Elections: One Last Chance for Democracy

[Handyman]

Warning: rant about to make landfall. Not directed at you. It is a scream into the wind.

But is there a better one?

I'm using what I have.

I agree, they foul their data with obviously terrible partisan polls, but (1) I'm not sure there are overwhelmingly more R than D BS polls, and (2) they do seem to be lining up with real polling. It does seems like the Dems are ahead in the Rust Belt and the fasc are tied or ahead in the Sun Belt. I have seen no indication that the real voting results will be wildly different -- like Harris takes Wisconsin by 7 or something. So I post to see trending. And because I'm scared and this is my self care (such as it is).

If I used my intuition I would look at how wildly repellent and inept not just the top of the ticket but all of the GOP is and I would think "no way can anybody normal vote for these tools; they're going to lose by 30 everywhere except the Slave States," but I know from experience that nope, 97% of their voters will accept full on Naziism and either ignore it, rationalize it, or glory in it. That is who they are. I have no BS detector anymore -- the smell of BS has been so strong from the Right for 20 years it has destroyed all sensory organs.

I am desperately worried that the reactionary people of our country are going to throw away democracy, irrevocably, not just because of one impotent cowardly demagogue, but because they have never believed in it. What they have believed in, and what gave us stability for 235 years, was the fossilization of their bigotries and superstitions in our laws. Now that there are finally a sufficient number of people voting to change that, they are deliberately choosing their ethnostate over a democratic republic. That is heartbreaking. At the heart of American conservatism is Afrikaner-level apartheid bigotry, and terror of equality, and because I am selfish I am butthurt: that is what I get for believing in regular everyday people as a good socialist and thinking the real problem was freeing them from the oppression of the the economic elites.

Turns out: nope, it's them. They don't care as long as they have a colored neighbor they can kick in the teeth.

To your first question...not that I know of. The issue is baked in because the aggregates want to seem impartial and (much like us) have PTSD about 2016 so they CYA with right leaning polls. (some of the polls are doing it too...hello Times/Sienna!) I mean its bad enough that polls like Rasmussen (who made their bones on fake polls to get on Faux News and who deny the Holocaust) and Trafalgar are always allowed in, but there is now a cottage industry of randos creating polls out of thin air being allowed in. The credibility of 538 died in 2018 when they allowed Patriot Polls into the averages and that was literally 2 HS students making up numbers. (and 538 knew it was bogus) There are a ton of others (from a cursory look at your list SoCal strategies is one...I think they are the one that uses AI to get their numbers and Big Village is an "opt-in" which is dubious)) and they are flooding the market right now so charts like the one mookie posted 2 days ago happen. (better betting lines and to depress enthusiasm amongst the Left) Adding weight helps a little but adding in other issues legit polls have on top of of the odds manipulation going on exasperates the problem. Basically you have to accept that what ever numbers they give you come with a huge grain of salt. The issues are just too big and the good outfits like Ipsos or Morning Consult just don't poll enough to offset it.

To the latter part of your rant, that is where I am as well. Every day I see the craziness that is just sort of shrugged off and cannot believe it. I mean I guess yesterday it broke that Trump gave Putin COVID tests when people here were struggling to get them (and Trump was saying not to to test so the numbers didn't look bad) and is still discussing policy with him and he stopped the FBI during the Kavanaugh Investigation (confirming what we knew at the time) and I bet it got zero traction. Now part of that is the hurricane I get that but Jesus that is still big news. I think a lot of people (and all of the media) grew numb to it. I mean you realize legit everything we said would happen, could happen and definitely should not happen DID happen. Like a bad movie, we knew the plot of this whole game in 2016. The media should be burying him (they dont) and the people should be running away from him like he was Dukakis in the tank. But they don't care...

And its because, truly, it is a friggin cult on top of a large percentage of Old White Men who are watching their power and influence erode right before their very eyes. Add in the fact that not one of them read 1984 or The Emperor's New Clothes and you see a problem. If you have ever watched a doc about any cult its a perfect parallel up to and including the fact that anyone deemed a rational thinker (you gotta grade on a curve when you are talking GOPers leaving) is excommunicated and labelled as an enemy equal to those of us who already oppose them. Their bigotry, misogyny and fear blinds them to the world living outside their tunnel vision. We are seeing it in real time right now. People in rural North Carolina not seeing the people right next to them handing out supplies, clearing roads, getting people out on helicopters...because their false idol says it isn't happening! People booing lower interest rates and inflation because as soon as inflation dropped Trump told them they wanted higher Inflation! Republican mayors and governors saying Venezuelan Gangs are not taking over Aurora or eating the pets in Ohio and people still saying it is true because a Fat Orange told them so. (and begging for mass deportation of LEGAL IMMIGRANTS) The party of Reagan talking about how great the Russians are, union workers applauding Trump wanting to end overtime, veterans giving a draft dodger a Purple Heart, mine workers supporting the guy who wants to end the regulations that save their lives (when the mines are even open) Latinos supporting a man who wants to deport them, young women taking selfies with the man who will take away their rights to bodily autonomy or even to get divorced...it goes on and on. And most of these people aren't like low IQ Jerks that have no clue, they know better you can tell. When say Jordan Klepper or The Good Liars (if you don't know them, watch their stuff it is like the Klepper rally stuff only more in depth) go to rallies you can see in the expressions of a lot of those people they know what they are saying makes no sense but they are so pot committed at this point they ignore the parts that make them doubt their faith. Same thing you saw in the Branch Davidians or Nexium or Scientology. By the time you get to the point where David Koresh is saying he is the next prophet or they ask you to brand yourself to be part of the super secret sex and torture cult for Keith Raniere or you learn aliens live inside you and you are about to get special powers...its too late you blackmail yourself into ignoring all of that and focusing on the good parts. Hey organized Religion has been doing that for thousands of years...cults just take a couple steps further.

I was raised to believe that even with the baked in racism, the biased judicial system and well, the large quantity of uneducated people that overall we can do more good than they can do bad if we just keep going. Freedom isn't easy, and the very things that make this country great are also the things that allow for what is happening now. And it aint going away even if we win. Its why, as much as it still irks me that we forced Biden out...it needed to be done. Biden is the last of those that think the system can be saved by going back to what we had before and he should be praised for his optimism and his ability to get a lot of great things done fighting against the tide but he is just not the man for the new fight. The AOC's of the world know that world is gone as does Harris. Its not just policy, it is about fixing the cracks that allowed this all to happen. Its about the next decade where the GOP shifts from Trump to Vance...its about making the case for the next 250 years not defending the first 250.

Just remember, right now they are yelling the loudest but there are more of us than there are of them. I worry every day but that is what they want. The media because it drives ratings and the Right because it depresses turnout. They know they are in trouble that is why they have Elmo bribing people to register voters (and his mom calling for out and out election fraud) and they currently have like 100 cases trying to screw with the voting less than a month out. They have no answer for the truth so they are hoping we get so angry and scared that we freeze up and stay home. Indicators are showing that registrations are up in every Battleground State and early voting is showing zero lack of enthusiasm. (last I saw in Pennsylvania of the first batch of mail in votes it was 3-1 D to R with a small percentage of no affiliation) The courts for the most part arent letting them cheat...so phuck it if we are going down lets go down fighting. History will remember us all fondly...it will remember azzholes like joecct like they do the colonists loyal to the crown.

[sorry...im just in a weird place and needed a rant]

[Handyman]

Not really. Most military funding ends up in the pockets of consumers. All of those bullets and planes are built by normal consumers. And given so many military jobs are done by congress reps to put money in their district- it’s a good way to distribute money. Well, not all that good since a lot ends up with people who never use it.

That is what I meant by "contained". It would kill us but I think the rest of the world would be insulated from it...except military contractors from other countries. Our economy would go bananas unless you staggered it over like a decade.

[MichVandal]

That is what I meant by "contained". It would kill us but I think the rest of the world would be insulated from it...except military contractors from other countries. Our economy would go bananas unless you staggered it over like a decade.

To me, the more frustrating thing about Elmo’s comments is that it perpetuated the myth that Rs care about the budget and deficit. Since at least Reagan, the deficit has gone way more up under r presidents than Ds by a very wide margin. Instead of tax and spend, they tax cut and spent more. Crazy. Elmo will get paid twice- once to rockets and the other on interest on the government debt. Easy money for rich people.

[Jimjamesak]

I’m just glad it’s hockey season as that gives me a useful distraction from the doom, “Dems are freaking out about Wisconsin Senate race!” type of stuff the feed wants to give me.

(The Wisconsin Senate story from The Hill being an example of the stuff Google et al are trying to feed)

[ScoobyDoo]

To me, the more frustrating thing about Elmo’s comments is that it perpetuated the myth that Rs care about the budget and deficit. Since at least Reagan, the deficit has gone way more up under r presidents than Ds by a very wide margin. Instead of tax and spend, they tax cut and spent more. Crazy. Elmo will get paid twice- once to rockets and the other on interest on the government debt. Easy money for rich people.

Voodoo Economics. Does it work on people because it's Voodoo or just because they're stupid.

[Jimjamesak]

Also, I’m curious about how Alaska is going to end up. Dump probably still wins but it’s likely by an uncomfortable margin. Peltola’s constant presence in advertising, the attempt to repeal RCV, and of course abortion (a federal ban would basically kill Alaska’s ironclad personal privacy protection) are going to drive left leaning turnout. It also doesn’t help that Alaska’s population is in decline, the question is which side is declining faster? The major oil companies pulling out haven’t helped the right much (BP pulled out and took a lot of wealthier execs and engineers with them).

[rufus]

To me, the more frustrating thing about Elmo’s comments is that it perpetuated the myth that Rs care about the budget and deficit. Since at least Reagan, the deficit has gone way more up under r presidents than Ds by a very wide margin. Instead of tax and spend, they tax cut and spent more. Crazy. Elmo will get paid twice- once to rockets and the other on interest on the government debt. Easy money for rich people.

Also, saw the other day that while the national debt will increase no matter who's elected, Trump's plans will cause it to grow double what it would under Harris.

I'm sure Drew is paying close attention to that, how concerned he is about the debt and all.

[burd]

Also, saw the other day that while the national debt will increase no matter who's elected, Trump's plans will cause it to grow double what it would under Harris.

I'm sure Drew is paying close attention to that, how concerned he is about the debt and all.

Well, there's deficit spending, and then there's wasting our tax money on blacks, browns, atheists, and deviants.

[dxmnkd316]

That is what I meant by "contained". It would kill us but I think the rest of the world would be insulated from it...except military contractors from other countries. Our economy would go bananas unless you staggered it over like a decade.

The problem is when you pull money out of any sector of any economy, it ripples through the rest.

Stop buying bullets? Manufacturers cut jobs. Workers can't afford food and televisions. So they cut television purchases. Television purchases get cut, overseas manufacturer cuts jobs. Overseas manufacturers cut jobs, etc.

Economies and sectors are never contained. They always ripple. It's almost always just a matter of scale. $2T even to military would spread like a tsunami.

[Handyman]

Voodoo Economics. Does it work on people because it's Voodoo or just because they're stupid.

[Handyman]

The problem is when you pull money out of any sector of any economy, it ripples through the rest.

Stop buying bullets? Manufacturers cut jobs. Workers can't afford food and televisions. So they cut television purchases. Television purchases get cut, overseas manufacturer cuts jobs. Overseas manufacturers cut jobs, etc.

Economies and sectors are never contained. They always ripple. It's almost always just a matter of scale. $2T even to military would spread like a tsunami.

But dont we make most of those things here? We aren't buying guns and ammo from businesses abroad are we? (I have no clue) There is no ripple if the ponds are separate ya know what I mean?

(there will be ripples elsewhere but not nearly as much as if say, we cut other areas)

Lets just pray we never find out for sure.

[rufus]

Well, there's deficit spending, and then there's wasting our tax money on blacks, browns, atheists, and deviants.

Yeah, can't be having that. Exxon needs incentives to drill baby, drill.

[rufus]

But dont we make most of those things here? We aren't buying guns and ammo from businesses abroad are we? (I have no clue) There is no ripple if the ponds are separate ya know what I mean?

(there will be ripples elsewhere but not nearly as much as if say, we cut other areas)

Lets just pray we never find out for sure.

The folks who make those bullets buy TVs. Cars, motorcycles, toasters and washing machines. Lots of those aren't made here.

Those folks get laid off or their hours cut, cause they ain't making as many bullets, they don't buy cars, TVs, new toasters.

As he said, the ripple goes worldwide.

[LynahFan]

The folks who make those bullets buy TVs. Cars, motorcycles, toasters and washing machines. Lots of those aren't made here.

Those folks get laid off or their hours cut, cause they ain't making as many bullets, they don't buy cars, TVs, new toasters.

As he said, the ripple goes worldwide.

True, but it's simpler than that. Ballpark terms, defense contractors bill the USG at roughly $250/hr, or $500k/year per employee. Cutting federal spemding by $2T per year would instantly cause 4,000,000 layoffs. Its probably even more than that, because government jobs aren't as expensive, so if some of the layoffs were government employees (say, soldiers), then there woudl be even more. But let's go with 4M. As any Congressman knows, every high-paying defense job supports 3-4 gas station attendants, waitresses, child care workers, etc, so 4M layoffs quickly turns to 12M. That's getting into the ballpark of COVID-19 levels of job loss - only permanent. If those 12M people stop stopping at Walmart, Target, and Amazon, then millions more jobs will be lost and the effects snowball into a complete meltdown of the economy.

Just a ridiculous, stupid thing to say to impress ridiculous, stupid people.

[Jimjamesak]

So do the polls account for people dying from stupidity? Seems like the Florida polls might need a rework…