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  • #46
    Originally posted by ScoobyDoo View Post
    Basically, machine guns are legal now. That's great news. That means mass killings can be MAASSSIVE!!!!!!!!!! killings from now on.
    It’s been a while since a load of elementary kids have been mowed down at school. The blood lust is growing

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    • #47
      Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post

      fair enough, but I'm not sure I buy Mike Johnson passing a bill that could be read as "anti 2nd amendment" in any form

      i could buy the senate getting to 60, but I will grant you that's optimistic of me.
      There is a better chance the Twins win out all the way through the World Series.
      "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
      -aparch

      "Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
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      Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
      -ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007

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      • #48
        Originally posted by Handyman View Post

        There is a better chance the Twins win out all the way through the World Series.
        I didn't say it was likely, but I also don't think it's that unlikely.

        I'm just not sure "yeah, machine guns are good actually" is a winning message. Even given our meek response after sandy hook.
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        When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
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        Comment


        • #49
          As we close in on the end of the term, there are still some big ones sitting in the wings:
          Rahimi, can domestic abusers be banned from obtaining firearms
          SEC, how much independence/powers do administrative agencies and administrative law judges have
          Moore, is a tax on unrealized gains in foreign entities constitutional
          Relentless v. Dept of Commerce, will Chevron deference survive
          NetChoice LLC - does social media moderation violate the 1st amendment
          Murthy - do government discussions with social media violate 1st amendment.
          Fischer - does charge used to convict many Jan. 6 defendants apply to Jan. 6 insurrection
          Grants Pass - can cities criminalize homelessness
          Moyle - does a federal emergency medical treatment requirement preempt a state's complete abortion ban
          Trump - do presidents have absolute immunity

          Plus a number of other criminal / statutory interpretation cases. Next ones are expected Thursday and Friday this week.

          Obvious calls:
          Relentless (Chevron deference is going down 6-3 on party lines, its been in conservative crosshairs for decades)
          Trump (presidents are not absolutely immune - should be 9-0, will probably be 6-1-1-1)
          Grants Pass (We won't go back to debtors prisons, but there will be lots of commentary about the lawless liberal cities on the west coast and the need to address it).

          Should be obvious, but the fact they made it this far is scary
          NetChoice (1st amendment applies to government actions, social media is not a government, should be 9-0 but who knows what the lunatic right will argue)
          Murthy (governments have the right to talk to people - in the absence of actual coercion there's no 1st amendment violation. Should be an obvious 9-0 but will be at least 7-2, could be 5-4)
          Rahimi (yes you can prevent domestic abusers from possessing firearms - should be 9-0 but won't be)
          Moore (yes Congress can tax unrealized gains if it chooses, should be 9-0 but will probably be 7-2 or 6-3)

          No clue:
          SEC - would've guessed this was going to be 6-3 along party lines earlier, but since they upheld the CFPB earlier this term I have hope the liberals + Roberts + Barrett maintains some normalcy.
          Fischer - I have no clue how this will go. Criminal law tends to make strange bedfellows in the most normal of cases, and this one is so far from normal that it could go anywhere.
          Moyle - My best guess is 5-4 or 5-1-3 saying the Idaho law survives, but I won't be shocked if the liberals and Roberts can pull Barrett over.
          Last edited by unofan; 06-17-2024, 11:46 AM.

          Comment


          • #50
            Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post

            I didn't say it was likely, but I also don't think it's that unlikely.

            I'm just not sure "yeah, machine guns are good actually" is a winning message. Even given our meek response after sandy hook.
            Even if you assume all Dems vote for it (not a guarantee) there is no chance enough Republicans would do it. Hell when asked they all changed the subject. Nothing on guns that is helpful will ever pass Congress until the filibuster is dead.
            "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
            -aparch

            "Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
            -INCH

            Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
            -ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007

            Comment


            • #51
              Originally posted by unofan View Post
              Trump (presidents are not absolutely immune - should be 9-0, will probably be 6-1-1-1)
              I'm guessing 5-2-2. Roberts and Beer Boy join the sane, Thomas says ditto to whatever casuistic loogy Gorsuch hawks up with and the Handmaid is just that for Alito's pseudo-Aquinian assertion of the divine mandate of Presidents.
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              • #52
                Originally posted by unofan View Post
                As we close in on the end of the term, there are still some big ones sitting in the wings:
                Rahimi, can domestic abusers be banned from obtaining firearms
                SEC, how much independence/powers do administrative agencies and administrative law judges have
                Moore, is a tax on unrealized gains in foreign entities constitutional
                Relentless v. Dept of Commerce, will Chevron deference survive
                NetChoice LLC - does social media moderation violate the 1st amendment
                Murthy - do government discussions with social media violate 1st amendment.
                Fischer - does charge used to convict many Jan. 6 defendants apply to Jan. 6 insurrection
                Grants Pass - can cities criminalize homelessness
                Moyle - does a federal emergency medical treatment requirement preempt a state's complete abortion ban
                Trump - do presidents have absolute immunity

                Plus a number of other criminal / statutory interpretation cases. Next ones are expected Thursday and Friday this week.

                Obvious calls:
                Relentless (Chevron deference is going down 6-3 on party lines, its been in conservative crosshairs for decades)
                Trump (presidents are not absolutely immune - should be 9-0, will probably be 6-1-1-1)
                Grants Pass (We won't go back to debtors prisons, but there will be lots of commentary about the lawless liberal cities on the west coast and the need to address it).

                Should be obvious, but the fact they made it this far is scary
                NetChoice (1st amendment applies to government actions, social media is not a government, should be 9-0 but who knows what the lunatic right will argue)
                Murthy (governments have the right to talk to people - in the absence of actual coercion there's no 1st amendment violation. Should be an obvious 9-0 but will be at least 7-2, could be 5-4)
                Rahimi (yes you can prevent domestic abusers from possessing firearms - should be 9-0 but won't be)
                Moore (yes Congress can tax unrealized gains if it chooses, should be 9-0 but will probably be 7-2 or 6-3)

                No clue:
                SEC - would've guessed this was going to be 6-3 along party lines earlier, but since they upheld the CFPB earlier this term I have hope the liberals + Roberts + Barrett maintains some normalcy.
                Fischer - I have no clue how this will go. Criminal law tends to make strange bedfellows in the most normal of cases, and this one is so far from normal that it could go anywhere.
                Moyle - My best guess is 5-4 or 5-1-3 saying the Idaho law survives, but I won't be shocked if the liberals and Roberts can pull Barrett over.
                Moyle is a big one. EMTALA is the underpinning of quite a few hospital assesssments and admissions, even psychiatric ones. Assuming they overrule EMTALA, hopefully SCOTUS is able to thread a needle that doesn’t unravel the rest of it. Not a legal mind, so not sure how’d they’d pull that feat off.

                Comment


                • #53
                  To the extent we can try to guess majority opinion authors by who hasn't written for given sitting:

                  Rahimi - Only one left from November - Roberts, Alito, Kagan, and Sotomayor all are options. Guessing this is Kagan, as Sotomayor would've had it out already. Possibly Roberts if he was needed to get a fellow conservative on board. If it goes 5-4 in favor of domestic abusers having guns, then it'll be Alito unless Roberts swoops in to tone it down.

                  SEC - only major one from December. Liberals all have their opinions out. Two other minor ones from December as well. Guessing Roberts has this one, while Gorsuch/Barrett have the two minor ones.

                  Relentless - only major one from January. Assuming Roberts has this one as the conservative magnum opus against the administrative state (which is why he probably has SEC, too, to show he's not entirely unreasonable). Kagan or Kavanaugh have the other outstanding criminal one from January

                  NetChoice LLC - only major one from February - Gorsuch/Alito/Barrett are the ones without opinions, and there should be 3 left. This could be a Barrett constitutional law professor opinion. Assume Gorsuch has the Fed Reserve one and Alito gets to punch the EPA some more in the other two.

                  Too early to predict the others, not enough opinions out in the March and April sittings to narrow down authors.

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    I legit may need to get some prescription anxiety meds before the chevron decision comes out.

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      Regarding the NetChoice decision, I assume the right's argument will be that social media is a de facto public utility due to its collective power and social influence. This argument rests on the notion that, similar to water and electricity, one cannot fully participate in modern society in the 21st century without some degree of social media presence. Therefore, forcibly "deplatforming" an individual constitutes a 1A violation from that angle.

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        1st today is Moore by Kavanaugh - 7-2 on the outcome - 5-2-2 on the reasoning (majority was Kavanaugh+liberals+Roberts, Barrett concurred joined by Alito, Thomas and Gorsuch dissented). Congress can tax foreign unrealized, unrepatriated gains.

                        Thomas and Gorsuch dissent, saying Congress can only tax income when it's realized.
                        Last edited by unofan; 06-20-2024, 09:12 AM.

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          Next is a malicious prosecution case. 6-3 by Kagan. The existence of a legitimately charged crime does not inherently bar a claim for malicious prosecution for a baseless charge made at the same time.

                          Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch dissent.

                          Comment


                          • #58
                            Next is a decision by Thomas regarding expert testimony standards. 6-3, with Gorsuch, Sotomayor and Kagan dissenting. There will be at least one more.

                            Comment


                            • #59
                              Last is another malicious prosecution-type case. Per curium decision saying the circuit court applied a wrong standard. Lots of concurring opinions. Thomas dissents.

                              More tomorrow. Lots of major ones still outstanding.

                              Comment


                              • #60
                                They're just going to rope-a-dope us along until we tune it out and they say yes, presidents do have full immunity, aren't they? And completely obliterate Chevron deference.
                                I gotta little bit of smoke and a whole lotta wine...

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