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  • Originally posted by Handyman View Post

    That is from 2018...to say it is outdated is an understatement. Hell Here is Pew just 2 years later saying Millennials and Gen Z favored Biden by 20 points. (with Trump gaining with Millennials)

    A lot of the "experts" blamed the GOP's crap showing in 2022 on Gen Z organizing against them. They may not be fans of the geriatrics that are in charge but they do care about their rights and even in Red areas they tend to be the loudest voices of protest and good lord are they motivated and organized these days. As I said in the previous post, I would say at best it is .35 of Gen Z votes GOP.

    We won't know though for sure until next year so we will wait and see. Between now and then there will be all sort of BS fear mongering or TD dancing about Gen Z based on 5 people some schmuck at the NYTimes saw at a Starbucks while he/she was waiting for a Machiatto and an application for work. By about November 15th 2024 we will have the data we need :^)
    I did think it was interesting that the Pew data showed Millennials as by the far most pro D with Gen Z basically matching Boomers in their preferences. Talk about needing a trigger warning. :-)

    We'll know after 2024. I hope to heck Gen Z (1) is the most skewed pro-D generation in history, and (2) defies age expectations and is comparable in turnout to Millenials and Boomers. It's been a long time since a true landslide election.

    Cornell University
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    ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
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    • Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
      I'd also guess Gen Z is somewhere in the .35 range. I don't think .25 is out of the realm of possibilities. The probability distribution is skewed though. 0.25 is probably 10x the likelihood of 0.5.
      There's just no possible way. We're talking about across the entire country. Start at what appears to be about average now. Say, .52-.48. Every point you tick up or down from there is monumentally important. If you get to .57-.43 for the generation coming into its maturity and that is electoral death for the GOP, not just for the White House, but in every state except the special needs ones (AL-MS-WV-WY-ID-UT-NE). A 14-point advantage in a major participating generation would flip TX! That is just not going to happen. No generational flip like that has ever occurred in American history.

      Change is gradual. If we can lock in Gen Z lifetime at .55-.45, that +10 points that will revolutionize our politics over time. We would be blessed for that to happen. Anything more is a fantasy, unless Gen Z's numbers are too small to matter, which we don't want.
      Cornell University
      National Champion 1967, 1970
      ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
      Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

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      • The electoral death is the previous 52-48 split before the 16-24 year old women watched their rights ripped away on June 24th, 2022, and attacked daily ever since in every red state. That's probably small now for the national electorate, but it'll get worse every election at this rate.
        "I went over the facts in my head, and admired how much uglier the situation had just become. Over the years I've learned that ignorance is more than just bliss. It's freaking orgasmic ecstasy".- Harry Dresden, Blood Rites


        Western Michigan Bronco Hockey- 2012 Mason Cup Champions

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        • Originally posted by Kepler View Post

          There's just no possible way. We're talking about across the entire country. Start at what appears to be about average now. Say, .52-.48. Every point you tick up or down from there is monumentally important. If you get to .57-.43 for the generation coming into its maturity and that is electoral death for the GOP, not just for the White House, but in every state except the special needs ones (AL-MS-WV-WY-ID-UT-NE). A 14-point advantage in a major participating generation would flip TX! That is just not going to happen. No generational flip like that has ever occurred in American history.

          Change is gradual. If we can lock in Gen Z lifetime at .55-.45, that +10 points that will revolutionize our politics over time. We would be blessed for that to happen. Anything more is a fantasy, unless Gen Z's numbers are too small to matter, which we don't want.
          You're right. But that's only part of the Votes Received formula. As someone else (swansong?) mentioned, likelihood of voting is roughly equal to (0.8*Age) + 25.

          So the actual swing is somewhat lower. A 30-point margin among Gen Z is basically cut in half in final tallies.
          Last edited by dxmnkd316; 07-25-2023, 12:32 PM.
          Code:
          As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
          College Hockey 6       College Football 0
          BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
          Originally posted by SanTropez
          May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
          Originally posted by bigblue_dl
          I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
          Originally posted by Kepler
          When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
          He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

          Comment


          • Appears they're going to try and impeach Joe Biden. Good plan.
            **NOTE: The misleading post above was brought to you by Reynold's Wrap and American Steeples, makers of Crosses.

            Originally Posted by dropthatpuck-Scooby's a lost cause.
            Originally Posted by First Time, Long Time-Always knew you were nothing but a troll.

            Comment


            • Can't wait to see what banana republic charges they gin up on Joe. The senate is where the evidence gets brought forth, and Schumer is likely going to pull a McConnell and shelve the charges.
              “Demolish the bridges behind you… then there is no choice but to build again.”

              Live Radio from 100.3

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              • Originally posted by bronconick View Post
                The electoral death is the previous 52-48 split before the 16-24 year old women watched their rights ripped away on June 24th, 2022, and attacked daily ever since in every red state. That's probably small now for the national electorate, but it'll get worse every election at this rate.
                But IINM there was no landslide in 2022. We outperformed and that was likely helped by Dobbs, but we didn't just blow the GOP out of the water. By all rights, we should be winning women under 35 by 100-0 non-white and maybe 75-25 white, but that is not going to happen.

                I would love to see electoral consequences for policy, but I learned in 2004 that the percentage of voters who are affected by actual substantive policy is a 10% slice. The other 90% of the electorate are boilerplate forever, and about 46-44 D. The only wiggle room is how many points we add of the ten above our 46.

                I'll grant you, we should add all 10. But (1) that's the very ceiling, and (2) even that just doesn't happen. 90% of the electorate is in the can already. The GOP learned that, which is how they went Full On Nazi and still have a bottom of 44. If the Dems became an actual Communist Party, our bottom would be a 46.
                Cornell University
                National Champion 1967, 1970
                ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

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                • Originally posted by aparch View Post
                  Can't wait to see what banana republic charges they gin up on Joe. The senate is where the evidence gets brought forth, and Schumer is likely going to pull a McConnell and shelve the charges.
                  Yeah I mean they don't even have anything yet. We keep hearing about how they will be bringing stuff out but then nothing happened. As dumb as impeaching Clinton was, at least there was a crime there they could point to with perjury and obstruction. There's not even a there there with Biden that we can argue about yet. (Nor do I think there ever will be.)

                  Cornell '04, Stanford '06


                  KDR

                  Rover Frenchy, Classic! Great post.
                  iwh30 I wish I could be as smart as you. I really do you are the man
                  gregg729 I just saw your sig, you do love having people revel in your "intelligence."
                  Ritt18 you are the perfect representation of your alma mater.
                  Miss Thundercat That's it, you win.
                  TBA#2 I want to kill you and dance in your blood.
                  DisplacedCornellian Hahaha. Thread over. Frenchy wins.

                  Test to see if I can add this.

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                  • Yeah, this is them inventing a scandal since none materialized organically. They'll rope-a-dope this until February or March and then they'll likely vote to impeach to make it a campaign issue. I'm just surprised that they waited this long, and didn't trip over themselves impeaching Biden on day 3.



                    Also, the evidence they have is... wow. Not? Not really evidence. I mean, Hunter will never hold office again, I suppose (that's a joke, I know he never held office). But the actual, material ties to Joe or even of an actual cover up are - being generous - extremely tenuous. The fact is, nothing happened other than Hunter is a ****bag.
                    I gotta little bit of smoke and a whole lotta wine...

                    Comment


                    • But, if they keep saying something did long enough, they know their herp-a-derps will think something did, and nothing anyone can say will convince them otherwise. And once Biden skates, it's just more proof that there's two systems of justice.

                      Kinda like election fraud.
                      What kind of cheese are you planning to put on top?

                      Comment


                      • We’re not a direct democracy. We are a *constitutional republic.* We need to revive civic duty among young Americans. That’s why I’m for a constitutional amendment to raise the voting age from 18 to 25, but to still allow 18-year-olds to vote if they either pass the same civics test required of immigrants to become naturalized citizens, or else to perform 6 months of military or first responder service. We must be ambitious.
                        - Vivek Ramaswamy
                        **NOTE: The misleading post above was brought to you by Reynold's Wrap and American Steeples, makers of Crosses.

                        Originally Posted by dropthatpuck-Scooby's a lost cause.
                        Originally Posted by First Time, Long Time-Always knew you were nothing but a troll.

                        Comment


                        • We need to revive civic duty by removing people from the civic process. Brilliant!

                          Cornell '04, Stanford '06


                          KDR

                          Rover Frenchy, Classic! Great post.
                          iwh30 I wish I could be as smart as you. I really do you are the man
                          gregg729 I just saw your sig, you do love having people revel in your "intelligence."
                          Ritt18 you are the perfect representation of your alma mater.
                          Miss Thundercat That's it, you win.
                          TBA#2 I want to kill you and dance in your blood.
                          DisplacedCornellian Hahaha. Thread over. Frenchy wins.

                          Test to see if I can add this.

                          Comment


                          • It’s almost like that particular demographic votes 90% for the other party…

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by French Rage View Post
                              We need to revive civic duty by removing people from the civic process. Brilliant!
                              I’m sure they’ll be an exception for any girl who farts out a baby as a teen.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by ScoobyDoo View Post
                                Heinlein did it

                                *see cross post in book thread
                                Code:
                                As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
                                College Hockey 6       College Football 0
                                BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                                Originally posted by SanTropez
                                May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                                Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                                I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                                Originally posted by Kepler
                                When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                                He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                                Comment

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