2022 MidTerms & State races- who ya got?

[Spartanforlife4]

CO-08 is interesting because the Republican conceded yesterday while still within very close range and it’s only gotten closer. Now within 150 votes.

[Spartanforlife4]

Yeah, I don’t think Colorado’s system works great for the data. It appears that precincts can and do report multiple times. Dx, you said Pueblo was far under expected votes yesterday. It sounds like there is still a good chunk to go. Whether those votes work in Frisch’s favor depending on same day or late mail and yada yada is a different story (if that type of trend even happens in CO), but either these reporters are being lied to by clerks or there are still votes out there in blue counties.

[Handyman]

Keep in mind, my data doesn't rely on news reports, it relies on the actual data.

What matters is how many precincts are reporting, how many votes are in, who the votes were cast for, and then uses that in combination with the expected # of votes to determine the state of the race.

My previous post said that it looked like the counties that Frisch was more heavily favored didn't have any outstanding precincts left. The overwhelming majority of precincts left were in red counties.

Right but I wasnt talking about your previous post I was referencing the one Spartan posted from the local person this morning saying that seems to be inaccurate.

I know where you are getting your data, and from what I am seeing it seems even the official sources (i.e. government sites counting the ballots) are not up to speed right now. The precincts seem to be a mess in quite a few places.

(not saying you are wrong, just saying you might be premature ;^) )

[Handyman]

I made this comment on Twitter election night in response to someone saying they want the media to talk about how the GOP rhetoric turned off voters:

"Good luck with that. By this time next week we will be hearing about how tonight was actually BAD for the Dems because "Dems in Disarray" is all the corporate media cares about."

Someone responded to my comment with this:




Non-Trumper Twitter is not being kind to the Times right now and I am here for it!

[dxmnkd316]

That doesn't seem to jive with the post previous to yours?

And I am sure it is just how you worded it messing with me, but why would a county in CO affect the other counties you mentioned?

Anyways I think you might want to wait on updating because it seems all the news out there (even from official sites) is suspect whether it is good or bad at this moment.

Keep in mind, my data doesn't rely on news reports, it relies on the actual data.

What matters is how many precincts are reporting, how many votes are in, who the votes were cast for, and then uses that in combination with the expected # of votes to determine the state of the race.

My previous post said that it looked like the counties that Frisch was more heavily favored didn't have any outstanding precincts left. The overwhelming majority of precincts left were in red counties.

[Handyman]

That doesn't seem to jive with the post previous to yours?

And I am sure it is just how you worded it messing with me, but why would a county in CO affect the other counties you mentioned?

Anyways I think you might want to wait on updating because it seems all the news out there (even from official sites) is suspect whether it is good or bad at this moment.

[dxmnkd316]

Bad news everyone. What I thoguth was going to happen, happened.

The outstanding votes in CO were indeed not from the locations promised but WERE in the counties I kept seeing were open. So they flipped her seat, AZ6, CA41, MD6

Final projection now 214-221 :-(

Senate

Governors

Sec of State

House

State

Reporting

Needed

State

Reporting

Needed

State

Reporting

Needed

Code

State

Reporting

Needed

AZ

79.7%

-11.8%

AZ

79.3%

-3.6%

AZ

78.5%

-10.8%

AK

D

AK

70.3%

133.2%

NV

90.3%

13.4%

NV

90.1%

0.2%

H1

AZ

75.1%

-3.2%

D

GA

93.9%

-10.9%

GA

94.1%

GA

93.0%

H2

AZ

69.9%

R

NV

90.3%

6.0%

MI

96.1%

MN

94.2%

H4

AZ

73.4%

-26.1%

D

CO

90.5%

MN

94.7%

MI

95.9%

H6

AZ

81.5%

3.9%

R

NH

83.6%

WI

96.9%

H3

CA

63.2%

7.1%

R

PA

95.6%

H6

CA

26.6%

-7.9%

D

NC

92.3%

H9

CA

53.0%

-10.5%

D

OH

93.7%

H13

CA

41.6%

-0.2%

D

WI

96.9%

H21

CA

41.1%

-5.8%

D

IA

92.7%

H22

CA

40.8%

3.3%

R

FL

96.5%

H23

CA

37.1%

R

H25

CA

42.4%

-14.5%

D

H26

CA

50.4%

-7.6%

D

H27

CA

45.6%

14.0%

R

H40

CA

43.5%

R

H41

CA

42.6%

0.3%

R

H45

CA

48.9%

10.2%

R

H47

CA

60.3%

-1.2%

D

H49

CA

60.4%

-3.6%

D

H3

CO

95.3%

2.2%

R

H8

CO

90.0%

-1.5%

D

H5

CT

96.5%

-8.9%

D

H17

IL

92.6%

-21.2%

D

H3

IA

90.4%

4.3%

R

H2

ME

52.8%

-69.4%

D

H6

MD

88.3%

9.7%

R

H10

MI

99.0%

R

H1

MT

93.5%

30.0%

R

H1

NV

85.7%

-12.4%

D

H3

NV

87.9%

-6.3%

D

H4

NV

83.8%

-13.7%

D

H2

NM

92.0%

-5.6%

D

H4

NY

92.5%

R

H17

NY

97.0%

R

H18

NY

95.6%

-7.9%

D

H19

NY

96.1%

R

H22

NY

96.0%

15.0%

R

H5

OR

70.6%

5.2%

R

H6

OR

73.7%

-4.9%

D

H3

WA

79.1%

-9.8%

D

H8

WA

70.3%

-15.2%

D

H10

WA

65.7%

-21.7%

D

H15

CA

D

H34

CA

D

H37

CA

D

[Spartanforlife4]

The remaining votes are supposedly all from heavy Frisch counties, so it’s not over yet. This is a tedious process, though. Apparently the machine rejects 60% of ballots due to signature. And that’s considered normal. So there’s a lot of human work involved.

This might seriously come down to who is an engaged voter and willing to go get their ballot cured if the signature is rejected by the machine and the human.

https://twitter.com/annalynnfrey/sta...dY4iMZKye7hluw

[Scarlet]

Lauren Boebert has taken the lead. Sigh. I hate hate hate there was so much gloating yesterday.

[rufus]

It'll be a disaster for the GOP. The Freedom Caucus ruined Boehner and Ryan as Speaker and they had a stronger grasp. A bunch of Qanoners with a tiny majority will be a ****show. They're gonna look like the Tories in Britain right now.

And the downside?

[French Rage]

What's equally funny is the incels who are responding to these Tweets that "lib cat ladies" aren't worth the trouble and they won't date/marry them, LMAO.

Those women would make those guys spend all of their time at gay things like quilting bees. They'd rather go watch pro wrestling with all of their male friends.

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

What's equally funny is the incels who are responding to these Tweets that "lib cat ladies" aren't worth the trouble and they won't date/marry them, LMAO.

[dxmnkd316]

This suggestion courtesy of Jesse Watters, who left his wife of 10 years for a woman 10 years younger than him who works for him and whose tires he let air out of so she had to ride home with him.

That's so ****ed up that I know it has to be true

[French Rage]

2. Find unmarried women that voted 68% Dem and "put a ring on it."

This suggestion courtesy of Jesse Watters, who left his wife of 10 years for a woman 10 years younger than him who works for him and whose tires he let air out of so she had to ride home with him.

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

BUt it didn't accomplish anything but panic the people on the ground on how to protect them. It did nothing but drain resources.

THe afghanistan exit went as well as it possibly could have given the circumstances. Exits are ugly, always, always, always.

Ask anyone from the Vietnam era how the final evacuation from Saigon went.