2022 MidTerms & State races- who ya got?

[French Rage]

What's equally funny is the incels who are responding to these Tweets that "lib cat ladies" aren't worth the trouble and they won't date/marry them, LMAO.

Those women would make those guys spend all of their time at gay things like quilting bees. They'd rather go watch pro wrestling with all of their male friends.

[rufus]

It'll be a disaster for the GOP. The Freedom Caucus ruined Boehner and Ryan as Speaker and they had a stronger grasp. A bunch of Qanoners with a tiny majority will be a ****show. They're gonna look like the Tories in Britain right now.

And the downside?

[Scarlet]

Lauren Boebert has taken the lead. Sigh. I hate hate hate there was so much gloating yesterday.

[Spartanforlife4]

The remaining votes are supposedly all from heavy Frisch counties, so it’s not over yet. This is a tedious process, though. Apparently the machine rejects 60% of ballots due to signature. And that’s considered normal. So there’s a lot of human work involved.

This might seriously come down to who is an engaged voter and willing to go get their ballot cured if the signature is rejected by the machine and the human.

https://twitter.com/annalynnfrey/sta...dY4iMZKye7hluw

[dxmnkd316]

Bad news everyone. What I thoguth was going to happen, happened.

The outstanding votes in CO were indeed not from the locations promised but WERE in the counties I kept seeing were open. So they flipped her seat, AZ6, CA41, MD6

Final projection now 214-221 :-(

Senate

Governors

Sec of State

House

State

Reporting

Needed

State

Reporting

Needed

State

Reporting

Needed

Code

State

Reporting

Needed

AZ

79.7%

-11.8%

AZ

79.3%

-3.6%

AZ

78.5%

-10.8%

AK

D

AK

70.3%

133.2%

NV

90.3%

13.4%

NV

90.1%

0.2%

H1

AZ

75.1%

-3.2%

D

GA

93.9%

-10.9%

GA

94.1%

GA

93.0%

H2

AZ

69.9%

R

NV

90.3%

6.0%

MI

96.1%

MN

94.2%

H4

AZ

73.4%

-26.1%

D

CO

90.5%

MN

94.7%

MI

95.9%

H6

AZ

81.5%

3.9%

R

NH

83.6%

WI

96.9%

H3

CA

63.2%

7.1%

R

PA

95.6%

H6

CA

26.6%

-7.9%

D

NC

92.3%

H9

CA

53.0%

-10.5%

D

OH

93.7%

H13

CA

41.6%

-0.2%

D

WI

96.9%

H21

CA

41.1%

-5.8%

D

IA

92.7%

H22

CA

40.8%

3.3%

R

FL

96.5%

H23

CA

37.1%

R

H25

CA

42.4%

-14.5%

D

H26

CA

50.4%

-7.6%

D

H27

CA

45.6%

14.0%

R

H40

CA

43.5%

R

H41

CA

42.6%

0.3%

R

H45

CA

48.9%

10.2%

R

H47

CA

60.3%

-1.2%

D

H49

CA

60.4%

-3.6%

D

H3

CO

95.3%

2.2%

R

H8

CO

90.0%

-1.5%

D

H5

CT

96.5%

-8.9%

D

H17

IL

92.6%

-21.2%

D

H3

IA

90.4%

4.3%

R

H2

ME

52.8%

-69.4%

D

H6

MD

88.3%

9.7%

R

H10

MI

99.0%

R

H1

MT

93.5%

30.0%

R

H1

NV

85.7%

-12.4%

D

H3

NV

87.9%

-6.3%

D

H4

NV

83.8%

-13.7%

D

H2

NM

92.0%

-5.6%

D

H4

NY

92.5%

R

H17

NY

97.0%

R

H18

NY

95.6%

-7.9%

D

H19

NY

96.1%

R

H22

NY

96.0%

15.0%

R

H5

OR

70.6%

5.2%

R

H6

OR

73.7%

-4.9%

D

H3

WA

79.1%

-9.8%

D

H8

WA

70.3%

-15.2%

D

H10

WA

65.7%

-21.7%

D

H15

CA

D

H34

CA

D

H37

CA

D

[Handyman]

That doesn't seem to jive with the post previous to yours?

And I am sure it is just how you worded it messing with me, but why would a county in CO affect the other counties you mentioned?

Anyways I think you might want to wait on updating because it seems all the news out there (even from official sites) is suspect whether it is good or bad at this moment.

[dxmnkd316]

That doesn't seem to jive with the post previous to yours?

And I am sure it is just how you worded it messing with me, but why would a county in CO affect the other counties you mentioned?

Anyways I think you might want to wait on updating because it seems all the news out there (even from official sites) is suspect whether it is good or bad at this moment.

Keep in mind, my data doesn't rely on news reports, it relies on the actual data.

What matters is how many precincts are reporting, how many votes are in, who the votes were cast for, and then uses that in combination with the expected # of votes to determine the state of the race.

My previous post said that it looked like the counties that Frisch was more heavily favored didn't have any outstanding precincts left. The overwhelming majority of precincts left were in red counties.

[Handyman]

I made this comment on Twitter election night in response to someone saying they want the media to talk about how the GOP rhetoric turned off voters:

"Good luck with that. By this time next week we will be hearing about how tonight was actually BAD for the Dems because "Dems in Disarray" is all the corporate media cares about."

Someone responded to my comment with this:




Non-Trumper Twitter is not being kind to the Times right now and I am here for it!

[Handyman]

Keep in mind, my data doesn't rely on news reports, it relies on the actual data.

What matters is how many precincts are reporting, how many votes are in, who the votes were cast for, and then uses that in combination with the expected # of votes to determine the state of the race.

My previous post said that it looked like the counties that Frisch was more heavily favored didn't have any outstanding precincts left. The overwhelming majority of precincts left were in red counties.

Right but I wasnt talking about your previous post I was referencing the one Spartan posted from the local person this morning saying that seems to be inaccurate.

I know where you are getting your data, and from what I am seeing it seems even the official sources (i.e. government sites counting the ballots) are not up to speed right now. The precincts seem to be a mess in quite a few places.

(not saying you are wrong, just saying you might be premature ;^) )

[Spartanforlife4]

Yeah, I don’t think Colorado’s system works great for the data. It appears that precincts can and do report multiple times. Dx, you said Pueblo was far under expected votes yesterday. It sounds like there is still a good chunk to go. Whether those votes work in Frisch’s favor depending on same day or late mail and yada yada is a different story (if that type of trend even happens in CO), but either these reporters are being lied to by clerks or there are still votes out there in blue counties.

[Spartanforlife4]

CO-08 is interesting because the Republican conceded yesterday while still within very close range and it’s only gotten closer. Now within 150 votes.

[Russell Jaslow]

If dxs projection is right and it ends up 218-217 I think we might see McCarthy go apoplectic because (and yes I do honestly mean this) I think Biden can get a non-Trumper Rep to switch sides on certain issues. It won't be anything major mind you but enough to continue to show how good he actually is at his job.

Also, a one seat majority will likely kill MTGs coming "IM GUNA IMPEACH DA BIDEN!!1@" act.

Just the opposite. It increases MTG's power. She will lead a small group of extremist votes which she can ransom off to any R agenda that comes up in the House. Think how a Parliamentary system works -- the smaller parties sometimes have more power than the majority party. This is where MTG will fall into.

Impeachment may be off the table, but she will cause a lot more trouble in other areas.

[Bronco]

I'm a little worried about getting a bunch of 18-22 year-olds to see how Uncle Joe gets credit and to vote for an octogenarian who is old enough to remember segregation, but as long as they do then demographics will not favor the GOP any longer.

For the good of the party, I hope some of our fossilized Dems in Congress are convinced to retire in 2024, particularly in the Senate. Debbie Stabenow, I'm looking at you - you'll be 74 in 2024, it's time to hand over the reins. I can think of at least 3 MI women who should be in the running to take over her seat.

I have no problem with Stabenow. I didn't have a problem with Levin either tbh. Senate positions are too precious to risk so I'm fine with another 6 years of Stabenow than have it up to chance with another Peters type election. Or ideally Stabenow gets re-elected and then retires 2 years into the term with Whitmer replacing her.

[Kepler]

Just the opposite. It increases MTG's power. She will lead a small group of extremist votes which she can ransom off to any R agenda that comes up in the House. Think how a Parliamentary system works -- the smaller parties sometimes have more power than the majority party. This is where MTG will fall into.

Impeachment may be off the table, but she will cause a lot more trouble in other areas.

Colbert's guest made this point very well. "The optimal majority for any Member is one, because every man is a king." The smaller Meadows' majority, the more chaos and the more ulcers he gets. When he was Speaker, Newt Gingrich called his own party "****ing cannibals."

[Handyman]

Just the opposite. It increases MTG's power. She will lead a small group of extremist votes which she can ransom off to any R agenda that comes up in the House. Think how a Parliamentary system works -- the smaller parties sometimes have more power than the majority party. This is where MTG will fall into.

Impeachment may be off the table, but she will cause a lot more trouble in other areas.

There isn't much trouble to cause though. Sure she can scream and yell and get put on committees and jam them up, but she has no authority to do anything and she certainly won't have a full on coalition of the GOP. All you need is 1 Kinzinger and she is as impotent as her soon to be ex husband. ;^)

If it was someone that was less, ummm, vitriolic I would agree with you 100%. If it was someone who was, umm, more political I would 100% agree with you. She will do more damage to them than she will to the country if she is the face of the Trumper Wing of a slim majority. (see also: Gaetz, Matt)