2022 MidTerms & State races- who ya got?

[Handyman]

If Rs gain control or the House and deliver on promises to impeach Biden for obviously insufficient reasons, all while Dump is being prosecuted in various jurisdictions, it seems that could actually help Ds in '24, not with Dump's base but with the margin voters who are so important now.

I'm ashamed for Wisconsin re: RJ.

If they do the two things they promised (shut down the government and investigate the Bidens) the Dems will sweep both houses and Biden cakewalks. They needed a Red Wave to survive those moves and it never happened.

WI electing RoJo sucks, but they re-elected Evers so the Blue Wall of Governors holds. We stopped the steal in '24.

[psych]

Maybe the latest mail-in batch for Washoe showed up in Dx's calculations, now being confirmed by Ralston on Twitter: mail-in went back toward R slightly. All comes down to Clark.

[dxmnkd316]

215-220 R house

[dxmnkd316]

Maybe dxs spreadsheet glitches cause of mail in votes?

COuld be. I don't account for mail in vs same-day or early.

I just use existing results to say how much they need to outperform.

7.2% is a big gap with so few votes remaining.

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

And Georgia goes to a runoff.

herschel ****ing walker. Anyone who voted for him should be ashamed

[Swansong]

215-220 R house

Isn't this near best case scenario? The Dems weren't holding it, but having extremely narrow margins seemed like the best of the possible outcomes.

I'd read that Scalise was ready to pounce on the Speaker position if they had a majority but under 225-230 seats.

[Swansong]

And Georgia goes to a runoff.

herschel ****ing walker. Anyone who voted for him should be ashamed

It's very and truly remarkable that this man has even the slightest chance at being a US Senator. Positively embarrassing.

[walrus]

It's very and truly remarkable that this man has even the slightest chance at being a US Senator. Positively embarrassing.

2 million votes, w tf

[Kepler]

It's very and truly remarkable that this man has even the slightest chance at being a US Senator. Positively embarrassing.

I mean... Dump was President of the United States.

[dxmnkd316]

The simple math still shows Barnes able to catch up with Milwaukee. But it might be the other outstanding in the rural counties that shore up Johnson.

He'd need to outperform by >35%. That's almost impossible at this stage from my experience.

I just odn't think he's got the #s.

[Kepler]

Isn't this near best case scenario?

Yes.

The only reasonably possible outcome would have been Nuclear Dobbs: women sneaking out of Republican homes between rapings and beatings and voting large numbers of Republican incumbents out. But it isn't as if they got any smarter overnight so, barring that, this was the best we were going to do.

It will be interesting to see what happens lower on tickets: state leg, judges, city councils, school boards. I hope to hell the last 6 years taught the Dems how essential it is to fight them on the beaches and in the school board meetings and in short to cut off their every possible angle to power at any level. We need the GOP completely out of the game of disenfranchisement, all the way from making the laws to judging them to executing them. We need every brownshirt removed from the windpipe of the republic.

[dxmnkd316]

Isn't this near best case scenario? The Dems weren't holding it, but having extremely narrow margins seemed like the best of the possible outcomes.

I'd read that Scalise was ready to pounce on the Speaker position if they had a majority but under 225-230 seats.

Best is a 1-seat margin (obviously). Because the leverage is insane. Do you think McCarthy can get all of his members to always behave 100% of the time?

I saw someone suggest that the Ds could pick off a single seat with "You can be Speaker if you promise a debt ceiling bill and XYZ". THe leverage is insane.

[Kepler]

He'd need to outperform by >35%. That's almost impossible at this stage from my experience.

I just odn't think he's got the #s.

Possible if the remaining tranche is constituted differently from however they constructed the expectation.

[dxmnkd316]

Warnock going to get to 49.53% of the vote. Drawing my line in the sand now.

Given the number of votes that came in after this, I'm pretty happy with my prediction. 0.12% off (~4,700 votes).

[Kepler]

Best is a 1-seat margin (obviously). Because the leverage is insane. Do you think McCarthy can get all of his members to always behave 100% of the time?

I saw someone suggest that the Ds could pick off a single seat with "You can be Speaker if you promise a debt ceiling bill and XYZ". THe leverage is insane.

cf. Manchin and Sinema.