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2022 MidTerms & State races- who ya got?

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  • Spamberger jumps into the lead with those PW votes. Hey guess what, it's not a horror movie.

    We are going to overperform the midterm mean. It's hard to imagine we will not lose the House but the fact is it's possible, and that's a staggering GOP fail.
    Cornell University
    National Champion 1967, 1970
    ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
    Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

    Comment


    • Originally posted by ScoobyDoo View Post
      Spanberger is losing big right now. That's not a good sign.
      Still following this one?
      That community is already in the process of dissolution where each man begins to eye his neighbor as a possible enemy, where non-conformity with the accepted creed, political as well as religious, is a mark of disaffection; where denunciation, without specification or backing, takes the place of evidence; where orthodoxy chokes freedom of dissent; where faith in the eventual supremacy of reason has become so timid that we dare not enter our convictions in the open lists, to win or lose.

      Comment


      • Senate Governors Sec of State
        State Reporting Needed State Reporting Needed State Reporting Needed
        AZ -0.163171 -16.3% AZ 12.5% AZ -17.1%
        CO -24.5% GA 7.5% GA 11.9%
        FL 105.7% MI 0.2% MN 6.8%
        GA -10.6% MN -8.4% MI -1.7%
        NV 1.0% WI -6.6% NV 1.0%
        NH -54.2% NV
        NC 3.2% OK
        OH 2.5% OR
        PA -16.4% KS
        WI -1.2%
        wa
        in
        ut
        IA 0.5%
        Code:
        As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
        College Hockey 6       College Football 0
        BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
        Originally posted by SanTropez
        May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
        Originally posted by bigblue_dl
        I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
        Originally posted by Kepler
        When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
        He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

        Comment


        • "The Other Nate":

          So far, Democrats are running about a point ahead of our expectations outside of Florida, with the GOP lead in the House starting to come down a bit. Not many signs of a red wave at this point.
          Cornell University
          National Champion 1967, 1970
          ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
          Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

          Comment


          • dx the fact that those numbers are swinging from light red to light blue is very good, right?
            Cornell University
            National Champion 1967, 1970
            ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
            Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

            Comment



            • Updated with a really stupid, but the only thing I got, way to look at reporting. I did an AVERAGE reporting across all counties in each state. Not ideal, for very obvious reasons, but there's no better way for me to do it.
              Senate Governors Sec of State
              State Reporting Needed State Reporting Needed State Reporting Needed
              AZ 27.4% -16.3% AZ 27.2% -11.8% AZ 26.9% -17.1%
              CO 55.6% -27.3% GA 85.4% 8.4% GA 83.1% 12.4%
              FL 94.0% 111.5% MI 22.8% -2.0% MN 0.8% -40.6%
              GA 85.2% -10.7% MN 0.8% -25.6% MI 19.3% -2.2%
              NV 0.0% 1.0% WI 26.8% -7.0% NV 0.0% 1.0%
              NH 19.3% -52.8% NV
              NC 92.2% 3.7% OK
              OH 81.6% 3.1% OR
              PA 55.6% -15.9% KS
              WI 25.9% -1.2%
              wa
              in
              ut
              IA 30.7% 1.9%
              Code:
              As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
              College Hockey 6       College Football 0
              BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
              Originally posted by SanTropez
              May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
              Originally posted by bigblue_dl
              I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
              Originally posted by Kepler
              When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
              He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

              Comment


              • GOP now has 5 House flips, which they needed to take the majority. So the Dems must gain a net 1 rom now on. We saved 2 of 3 in VA so you can thank me personally. We lost all 3 in FL.
                Cornell University
                National Champion 1967, 1970
                ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                  dx the fact that those numbers are swinging from light red to light blue is very good, right?
                  Blue is good :-)
                  Yes, but you want dark green too :-)
                  Code:
                  As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
                  College Hockey 6       College Football 0
                  BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                  Originally posted by SanTropez
                  May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                  Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                  I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                  Originally posted by Kepler
                  When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                  He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                    GOP now has 5 House flips, which they needed to take the majority. So the Dems must gain a net 1 rom now on. We saved 2 of 3 in VA so you can thank me personally. We lost all 3 in FL.
                    Florida is forever lost.

                    The VA loss was one of the lowest hanging fruit. It's really good news that we held the other two. I think we could pick up some. I almost loaded the entire house into the spreadsheet but didn't want to get blocked from the data feed I'm hijacking.
                    Code:
                    As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
                    College Hockey 6       College Football 0
                    BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                    Originally posted by SanTropez
                    May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                    Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                    I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                    Originally posted by Kepler
                    When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                    He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post

                      Florida is forever lost.

                      The VA loss was one of the lowest hanging fruit. It's really good news that we held the other two. I think we could pick up some. I almost loaded the entire house into the spreadsheet but didn't want to get blocked from the data feed I'm hijacking.
                      What are you seeing in CO-3 (Boebert district)? Looks like with about 1/2 to 2/3 of the vote in, she's losing by about 6-7 points. I haven't seen it discussed anywhere yet, so I presume she will win handily. But, I was curious what you were seeing.
                      North Dakota
                      National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

                      Comment


                      • Holy hell!!!!!!

                        Boebert might lose!!!
                        Code:
                        As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
                        College Hockey 6       College Football 0
                        BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                        Originally posted by SanTropez
                        May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                        Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                        I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                        Originally posted by Kepler
                        When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                        He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                        Comment


                        • Holy crap! With 15% in Castelli leads Stefanik 58.5-41.5. The fact that she doesn’t have this wrapped up is a GREAT sign.
                          Uncle Mickey: July 23, 1950-July 22, 2003

                          WRPI, 91.5 FM...usually color commentary.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post

                            What are you seeing in CO-3 (Boebert district)? Looks like with about 1/2 to 2/3 of the vote in, she's losing by about 6-7 points. I haven't seen it discussed anywhere yet, so I presume she will win handily. But, I was curious what you were seeing.
                            I wish I had loaded some of these house races but focused on getting the Senate and Governors in. Every single race is two separate queries to the website and it's a pain in the *** to setup. I should ahve done this earlier, but the problem was that I wouldn't know what formulas are incorrect until I started seeing data stream in. As it turns out, I had to spend about two hours now getting formulas fixed. NBC reports percentages as 54.2% instead of .542 which.. whatever, but I had to update half a dozen formulas for each race and then apply it to the entire worksheet. It's a pain..


                            ANyways, I think we have a chance of holding the house based on Boebert alone. That's a big big big big surprise for me.
                            Code:
                            As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
                            College Hockey 6       College Football 0
                            BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                            Originally posted by SanTropez
                            May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                            Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                            I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                            Originally posted by Kepler
                            When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                            He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by jericho View Post
                              Holy crap! With 15% in Castelli leads Stefanik 58.5-41.5. The fact that she doesn’t have this wrapped up is a GREAT sign.
                              Between this and Boebert, you've got some REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAALLY worrying signs if you're a GOP operative.
                              Code:
                              As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
                              College Hockey 6       College Football 0
                              BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                              Originally posted by SanTropez
                              May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                              Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                              I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                              Originally posted by Kepler
                              When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                              He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
                                Holy hell!!!!!!

                                Boebert might lose!!!
                                Are you able to calculate the margin Frisch would need to outperform down the stretch?
                                North Dakota
                                National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

                                Comment

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