2022 MidTerms & State races- who ya got?

[aparch]

From Twitter...

@hugolowell New: Attorney General Merrick Garland, DAG Monaco, FBI Director Wray and NatSec AAG Olsen will host a press conference at 1:30p ET discussing alleged criminal activity by a nation-state actor in the US

[Handyman]

I doubt there is a plan. I'm not saying that voters should sink Biden for the economy. What I'm saying is that anyone in Kepler's position that thinks the economy doesn't suck is oblivious.

I am not in Kepler's position...far from it. I am (barely) living paycheck to paycheck because of certain factors out of my control and my bills are getting more expensive by the hour. (while my retirement loses value even faster in the short term)

The economy does not suck. It is a complete absurd notion that is easily dismissed if you pay attention to more than just clickbait headlines. (which sadly most of this country does not)

If the people in your scenario are so self-centered and stupid that they can't see past their own struggles to see what is really going on and think that by voting for a party that would rather light them on fire than help them...then the Republicans have finally succeeded in Regan's vision of completely ****ing up this country and making everyone ****ing stupid. Congrats.

[Handyman]

You are missing my point. The entire economic order built since Reagan punishes everyone but the 1%. The economy doesn't suck -- it doesn't matter. The rise and fall of the market is completely cut off from the treatment of workers, which is always horrible.

That is what I meant. In the Neoliberal world which the GOP built and the Dems didn't try hard enough to stop because they are also co-opted, even a raging bull market won't help the average American. They are ****ed either way. This is the world your party built. Own it. You were duped. You cheered while they cut your throat because they preached hate against the people you hate too. But you were the biggest loser of all, which would be funny if it wasn't tragic that others had to suffer who didn't deserve it the way you do.

Its true. Energy bills dont go down because the DJIA goes up.

[rufus]

Its true. Energy bills dont go down because the DJIA goes up.

They could have gone down if we'd invested more in renewables five years ago.

But................................

[Swansong]

While we all have jobs and the markets are doing well mostly, inflation and cost of living is putting a serious and real harm on most people. To say "the economy is going great" is repeating the mistake the Republicans were making in 2008. The situations are vastly different, but whistling past the graveyard is still whistling past the graveyard.

I don't really understand monetary policy very well, but as I do understand it, we had a choice of two options as we realized the pandemic was going to linger. We could continue Trumps policy of doing nothing at all and let unemployment stay sky high, with long-lasting effects, or we could flood the economy with money in the forms of quantitative easing, continued low interest rates (long after they "should" have been raised), straight cash stimulus and other plans. We went with option 2, which likely saved enormous amounts of jobs and businesses and helped prevent a recession that would have made 2009 look minor. However, the result is that inflation would set in (I mean, look at the rest of the world, including nations that did nothing at all - they're still feeling inflation). Say what you will about the Fed's believe that inflation was transitory, but the fact is all of these (in my opinion, necessary and correct) moves do have consequences. Consequences that we need to pay for. If we had a media that was honest and an opposition party that wasn't straight-up fascist, I think we'd be in a better shape.


That said, at least for now, unemployment is absurdly low (which is terrific and a huge hedge against a deep recession).

But this all comes together to mean that we - the parts of the US that don't embrace fascism - are likely losing both houses of congress and that's very bad.

[rufus]

But that's not all of it. As Katie Porter showed, over 50% of the current inflation is coming from corporations just increasing their profit margins. They started bilking consumers during the pandemic, and are continuing to do so.

[Handyman]

While we all have jobs and the markets are doing well mostly, inflation and cost of living is putting a serious and real harm on most people. To say "the economy is going great" is repeating the mistake the Republicans were making in 2008. The situations are vastly different, but whistling past the graveyard is still whistling past the graveyard.

I don't really understand monetary policy very well, but as I do understand it, we had a choice of two options as we realized the pandemic was going to linger. We could continue Trumps policy of doing nothing at all and let unemployment stay sky high, with long-lasting effects, or we could flood the economy with money in the forms of quantitative easing, continued low interest rates (long after they "should" have been raised), straight cash stimulus and other plans. We went with option 2, which likely saved enormous amounts of jobs and businesses and helped prevent a recession that would have made 2009 look minor. However, the result is that inflation would set in (I mean, look at the rest of the world, including nations that did nothing at all - they're still feeling inflation). Say what you will about the Fed's believe that inflation was transitory, but the fact is all of these (in my opinion, necessary and correct) moves do have consequences. Consequences that we need to pay for. If we had a media that was honest and an opposition party that wasn't straight-up fascist, I think we'd be in a better shape.


That said, at least for now, unemployment is absurdly low (which is terrific and a huge hedge against a deep recession).

But this all comes together to mean that we - the parts of the US that don't embrace fascism - are likely losing both houses of congress and that's very bad.

Inflation sucks...hard. It is literally punching me in the gut on a daily basis. The truth is that inflation is this way for about a dozen reasons some of which pre-date the Pandemic. The Pandemic just kicked into overdrive the consequences to ours (and others) actions for the past 40 years. Sooner or later this was coming, and everyone who ever took Econ past Micro 101 knew it. Hell every non Supply Side economist since the mid 1990s has been saying it...

The thing is we have just come to accept that corporations don't have to be helpful members of society. We give them ****ing everything and they still will try and squeeze blood from a turnip. Oil Companies are the ultimate example (with Tech right behind them) where because they know society needs their product they always charge to the highest level possible, maximize their profits while screwing over their workers and consumers, and then doubly benefit from any fallout or corrections. If corporations took even a minor amount less in quarterly profits (rounding errors when you are talking these figures) Inflation would barely be noticeable. If companies paid a living wage (current Minimum Wage is a joke) same thing. Neither is true so everyone struggles.

The economy isn't the problem, it is the economic actors (and the people they pay off in Congress) who are. If everyone has a job and no one can afford to live that isn't the economy as a problem.

[Handyman]

But that's not all of it. As Katie Porter showed, over 50% of the current inflation is coming from corporations just increasing their profit margins. They started bilking consumers during the pandemic, and are continuing to do so.

The funny thing is it is now starting to bite some of these companies. (mostly retail) Target, Amazon, Wal-Mart, Nike and others had to add extra "Black Friday" sales the last couple months because they overbought products thinking people would continue their Pandemic spending habits. Once people went back to work though and once inflation hit there was no more frivolous spending. There are warehouses of clothes and household items taking up space that they can't give away. Because they can't sell it that means they can't put out the new items for this winter/shopping season. They never stopped to think that people wouldn't be able to just buy whatever they want forever, nor would they want to.

[Handyman]

I think I actually spotted that troll. Anything else and he’s truly a lunatic.
More importantly, any chance polls are now underestimating newly registered female voters looking to take aw- restore their right to choose? I won’t claim to know. Just looking for some hope as the polls inevitably tighten back up with “economy, economy, economy” clanging and banging in the media. Handy, this might be a job for you. Speaking of, ever get an idea of a charity I should donate to if newly registered female voters help propel Democrats to victory in the House?

Not yet...but I will.

Here is some non-negative news:


https://twitter.com/RonBrownstein/st...82125575032832

Likewise new @CNN polls show Ds +15 for PA Gov, +6 for PA Senate & MI Gov, +2 for WI Gov & -1 in WI Senate. Close states are close & maybe bottom falls out at end for Ds w/late deciding voters (who may be more sensitive to economy) but narrative of big R surge seems...premature?

[Handyman]

Here is some early voting data which is also not bad news: https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1584587417792585729

Via TargetEarly, % D/R who've voted at this point in:
2020 2022
US 52-37 54-36
GA 48-44 52-40
MI 41-38 53-27
PA 69-25 73-23
VA 54-32 56-29
WI 38-40 42-29

Early vote is more D in US and these states. Some good news from NV too:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/s...67450057236480

NEWS: This is a large batch of mail ballots and Dems are crushing Repubs in Clark County almost 2 to 1. Very similar to what happened in 2020: Early voting has slight edge to GOP and then Dems obliterate the lead. These are significant numbers after two days.

The one thing that the media leaves out of their polling and doomsday whining is early voting...and it appears that much like 2020 early voting is (so far) a massive win for Dems in many of the worrisome states. If that holds (and no one here is saying it will) then the GOP/media plan to suppress voting with negative headlines in the hopes of closer races backfired because it motivated people to vote as quickly as possible.

[Handyman]

Decent news out of Texas: https://twitter.com/kwtx/status/1584258387864616961

ON THE EVE OF EARLY VOTING: A day before early voting begins in Texas, a new Beacon Research Poll shows the Texas Gubernatorial race as a tossup among voters.

Beto is making the rounds today pushing the opening of early voting. Also is claiming over the the last 3 weeks they signed up upwards of 70k new voters on his campus tours. That is also info that would not show up in polling.

We will see how it plays out. Normally I would doubt Beto but Abbott is not well liked even by Republicans in Texas so...

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

The economy doesn't suck if you're living in the D.C. suburbs, in one of your two homes, pulling down $400k annually with your spouse, reading the NYT and WaPo on Sundays, wondering whether you should spend Uncle Joe's student loan refund to you on a new Peloton.

There are what...2, maybe 3 regular posters on these threads currently in a situation like that?

[Swansong]

Derisively dismissing the student loan refunds as some sort of sop to the upper class is just proof that the right absolutely has no idea how to argue the policy. There's an income limit, first of all. Further, the overwhelming majority of recipients are lower or middle class. $10,000 loan forgiveness and/or refund is the difference between making a car payment or not. Or between replacing your washing machine now or waiting a year and having to use a laundromat.


But hey. Why be honest when you can just lie about it and whine about Starbucks employees having their LA degrees paid for?

[SJHovey]

There are what...2, maybe 3 regular posters on these threads currently in a situation like that?

If you want all the boxes ticked, I can think of only one.

[SJHovey]

Derisively dismissing the student loan refunds as some sort of sop to the upper class is just proof that the right absolutely has no idea how to argue the policy. There's an income limit, first of all. Further, the overwhelming majority of recipients are lower or middle class. $10,000 loan forgiveness and/or refund is the difference between making a car payment or not. Or between replacing your washing machine now or waiting a year and having to use a laundromat.


But hey. Why be honest when you can just lie about it and whine about Starbucks employees having their LA degrees paid for?

Well, I'm not going to go back and find it, but I'm pretty certain Kepler was on one of these threads a couple of weeks ago talking about how much he and/or his wife got refunded or reduced. In fact, wasn't he the poster that got the whole stack of checks, but in odd amounts, adding up to the total refunded, or was that someone else?

Now, how much does he make, precisely? I have no idea. But given what he has said about his job, and his wife's job, and the fact that he has a home in Maryland or Northern Virginia or somewhere else in the D.C. area, and a second home in Arizona (or wherever it is), and given the fact that he has readily admitted to being in the one percent, you tell me.

As for the student loan forgiveness, I think that might have been my only comment on it. I personally don't think it's that big of a deal either way. On the other hand, when you have some clown coming on here, who claims to be wealthy, and then whining when the NYT and WaPo writes that the economy isn't great right now, well that needs to be responded to.