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2022 MidTerms & State races- who ya got?

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  • Handyman
    replied
    Originally posted by psych View Post
    It appears election-denier Don Bolduc is going to pull it out versus Sununu-backed Chuck Morse in NH. One has to think that significantly improves Hassan’s chances, even in a state as dominated at the state-level by the GOP as New Hampshire is currently.
    He is now saying the election wasn't stolen...

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  • LynahFan
    replied
    Congratulations, Chris Pappas, 2022 National Champion!

    (so old I forgot the exact phrasing)

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  • Drew S.
    replied
    New England has our own MTG https://www.boston.com/news/politics...1=hp_secondary

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  • psych
    replied
    It appears election-denier Don Bolduc is going to pull it out versus Sununu-backed Chuck Morse in NH. One has to think that significantly improves Hassan’s chances, even in a state as dominated at the state-level by the GOP as New Hampshire is currently.

    Leave a comment:


  • dxmnkd316
    replied
    Originally posted by Kepler View Post
    Per 538 (settle down), the likelihood of the GOP taking the House (73%) has now nearly dropped below the likelihood of the Dems holding the Senate (69%, nice).

    Note that in June the GOP's House chance was 86% while the Dems Senate chance was 40%.

    It's still a long way to go for the Dems to hold the House, but hopefully Lindsay just helped.

    Another way to put this, since June the House popular vote has dropped by R+6.4 to R+2.9, and the prediction for seats controlled has dropped from 234-101 to 227-208. Due to aggressive Republican gerrymandering, they would still take the House if the popular vote was between even and D+2ish.
    That's using the deluxe method, which I still find problematic. The polls-only method is down to 39-61 in the house (224-211 - with it basically being a dead even split as the median case) and 81-19 in the senate (median 54, estimated 52).

    Polls-only senate shows a 1% chance of having >60 seats. 72% chance of gaining seats.
    Last edited by dxmnkd316; 09-13-2022, 12:51 PM.

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  • Kepler
    replied
    Per 538 (settle down), the likelihood of the GOP taking the House (73%) has now nearly dropped below the likelihood of the Dems holding the Senate (69%, nice).

    Note that in June the GOP's House chance was 86% while the Dems Senate chance was 40%.

    It's still a long way to go for the Dems to hold the House, but hopefully Lindsay just helped.

    Another way to put this, since June the House popular vote has dropped by R+6.4 to R+2.9, and the prediction for seats controlled has dropped from 234-101 to 227-208. Due to aggressive Republican gerrymandering, they would still take the House if the popular vote was between even and D+2ish.
    Last edited by Kepler; 09-13-2022, 11:21 AM.

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  • Kepler
    replied
    The Right: the cruelty is the point.

    Shoot them all into the Sun.

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  • ScoobyDoo
    replied
    https://twitter.com/bridget123goooo/...30850439397379

    Gaetz took pics of his dem opponent, Rebekah Jones’s 12 yo autistic son & posted them on FB mocking him & her. FL-1, get him out of our lives! He is sick. He does not deserve the seat he holds. The way we fight back is we vote for good candidates that care about humanity.

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  • Swansong
    replied
    Some food for thought.
    • NH is a little ol' piece of Alabama in most places outside Nashua and Manchester.
    • Sununu is absolutely typical of the "moderate" republican that will grudgingly do the wrong thing because party.
    • Baker is an exception to the above point. In 2016 and 2020 he refused to attend the GQP convention and refused to endorse Trump. Seriously, he'd be a moderate Dem in like 25-30 states.
    • MA loves moderate Republican governors, but to be fair the competition hasn't always been great; either the candidate is a complete idiot (2014 Martha Coakley), a horrible campaigner (2002 Shannon O'Biren), even more to the right than the Republican (1990 John Silber) or complete also-rans (pretty much everyone else except Deval Patrick). Baker might have won again in 2022 but the state GQP decided it would rather have a loser than Baker and nominated election-denying Jeff Diehl, who's about to be massacred by Democrat and current-AG Maura Healey.

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  • rufus
    replied
    Originally posted by psych View Post

    That’s what makes people like Sununu terrifying. How do New Englanders, so craven in their liberal righteousness, continually vote for people like Sununu and Baker? It’s been going on forever, and I can only think it’s because they’re liberal culturally, but fiscally conservative, which is about as hypocritical and bullsh-t as it gets.
    But he looks so non-threatening.

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  • Kepler
    replied
    Originally posted by psych View Post

    Nah. Liberals in Massachusetts loved Baker more than Republicans by a country mile. He didn’t win re-election with ONLY Republican votes in a state that went for Biden by 33%.
    Well, I'm not counting MA. They're just morons.

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  • psych
    replied
    Originally posted by Kepler View Post

    It's not liberals. There are plenty of racists and ignoramuses in New England.

    In every place, there are losers. And those losers who become butthurt and blame everyone else but themselves for losing are called "conservatives."

    They will always be with us, as there will always be people who are below the mean, inept, and ready to evade their personal responsibility.
    Nah. Liberals in Massachusetts loved Baker more than Republicans by a country mile. He didn’t win re-election with ONLY Republican votes in a state that went for Biden by 33%.

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  • Kepler
    replied
    Originally posted by psych View Post

    That’s what makes people like Sununu terrifying. How do New Englanders, so craven in their liberal righteousness, continually vote for people like Sununu and Baker? It’s been going on forever, and I can only think it’s because they’re liberal culturally, but fiscally conservative, which is about as hypocritical and bullsh-t as it gets.
    It's not liberals. There are plenty of racists and ignoramuses in New England.

    In every place, there are losers. And those losers who become butthurt and blame everyone else but themselves for losing are called "conservatives."

    They will always be with us, as there will always be people who are below the mean, inept, and ready to evade their personal responsibility.

    Leave a comment:


  • psych
    replied
    Originally posted by Kepler View Post

    Sununu is a member of that crime family from NH that has always been craven and will do anything for power. He was "moderate" only in the sense that Trent Lott, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, or Mitch McConnell are. They will use an insane ideology to smash and grab, but they do not themselves subscribe to any ideology.
    That’s what makes people like Sununu terrifying. How do New Englanders, so craven in their liberal righteousness, continually vote for people like Sununu and Baker? It’s been going on forever, and I can only think it’s because they’re liberal culturally, but fiscally conservative, which is about as hypocritical and bullsh-t as it gets.

    Leave a comment:


  • Kepler
    replied
    Originally posted by mookie1995 View Post
    Center right took over from center left in Sweden.

    just sayin’
    That "center right" includes a neo-Nazi party that got 21% of the vote.

    So, pretty much exactly the GOP. There are stupid and sick people even in Sweden.

    Just sayin'.


    Last edited by Kepler; 09-12-2022, 10:08 AM.

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