2022 MidTerms & State races- who ya got?

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

I get the sense some, Wasserman especially, are waiting for the other shoe to drop and flip things back to an easy Red Wave. They always seems to be in a state of hedge about this. Ironically, they are using previous trends (Presidents party gets hammered in the midterms) to try and disprove a trend. Past results do not guarantee future results seems to be lost in this argument right now.

The lamestream media are all begging for a major "October Oopsie" (e.g. some sort of mental meltdown from Biden) so the trends regress, and they can say they were right the whole time.

[Jimjamesak]

The lamestream media are all begging for a major "October Oopsie" (e.g. some sort of mental meltdown from Biden) so the trends regress, and they can say they were right the whole time.

Their misunderstanding of RCV and how it actually works isn’t much better. Just because the two Republican candidates got 60% of the first round votes doesn’t mean one of them would’ve gotten 60% in the traditional primary to FPTP general system. And their stupid takes are absolutely feeding into the BS against RCV.

[Swansong]

Their misunderstanding of RCV and how it actually works isn’t much better. Just because the two Republican candidates got 60% of the first round votes doesn’t mean one of them would’ve gotten 60% in the traditional primary to FPTP general system. And their stupid takes are absolutely feeding into the BS against RCV.

Cotton is one of those "acts dumb, is smart" ****birds, so he knows exactly what he's doing.

[Jimjamesak]

Cotton is one of those "acts dumb, is smart" ****birds, so he knows exactly what he's doing.

Oh I’m not talking about Cotton. There have been plenty of “experts”, actual media people like FiveThirtyEight and others, bleating about on Twitter about the exact same stuff.

The only difference between them and Cotton is they’re not shouting CONSPIRACY but only saying “well it’s a strange result” despite the polling predicting this exact outcome.

[Swansong]

Oh I’m not talking about Cotton. There have been plenty of “experts”, actual media people like FiveThirtyEight and others, bleating about on Twitter about the exact same stuff.

The only difference between them and Cotton is they’re not shouting CONSPIRACY but only saying “well it’s a strange result” despite the polling predicting this exact outcome.

Well that's dumb.

[Handyman]

Their misunderstanding of RCV and how it actually works isn’t much better. Just because the two Republican candidates got 60% of the first round votes doesn’t mean one of them would’ve gotten 60% in the traditional primary to FPTP general system. And their stupid takes are absolutely feeding into the BS against RCV.

The media also doesn't like RCV because it makes them less valuable. In a run off one headline can sink a candidate so everyone plays nice enough and gives necessary access to keep things as kosher as possible. (Except Trump) RCV changes the equation and gives the media less clout.

These days Ron Burgundy is the perfect avatar for the mainstream media. They can't write, they can't think for themselves and they certainly can't do basic math. They are talking teleprompters one step up from an Amazon Alexa only less useful.

[Jimjamesak]

Well that's dumb.

FiveThirtyEight literally has this in their article:

What’s more, that Republican underperformance disappears if you look not at the results from the final round, but rather at only first-choice votes. Sixty percent of voters selected a Republican (either Palin or Begich) as their preferred candidate, while only 40 percent selected a Democrat (Peltola), perhaps a better gauge of their actual partisan preferences. In fact, by that metric, the Alaska special election was actually an overperformance for Republicans. Their 20-point combined margin over Peltola was 5 points better than the state’s R+15 partisan lean.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...bout-november/

Same ****ing garbage out of Cotton’s mouth, just spoken by an “expert”.

If it was an actual “gauge of their partisan tendencies” then Palin would’ve won.

[Jimjamesak]

The media also doesn't like RCV because it makes them less valuable. In a run off one headline can sink a candidate so everyone plays nice enough and gives necessary access to keep things as kosher as possible. (Except Trump) RCV changes the equation and gives the media less clout.

These days Ron Burgundy is the perfect avatar for the mainstream media. They can't write, they can't think for themselves and they certainly can't do basic math. They are talking teleprompters one step up from an Amazon Alexa only less useful.

Oh no doubt. RCV forces people to vote candidates not party, something the media cannot understand today.

[Swansong]

And it completely and utterly - and purposefully? - ignores the fact that RCV results in people actually voting differently than in FPTP voting.

[Jimjamesak]

And it completely and utterly - and purposefully? - ignores the fact that RCV results in people actually voting differently than in FPTP voting.

But they already knew that! They’re experts! (rolleyes)

Honestly, I think FiveThirtyEight is just grasping at straws trying to keep their “red wave” narrative mixed with a little bit of ignorance.

[unofan]

In fairness to the national media, if the other R candidate had squeaked past Palin into 2nd, he probably wins by 6-8 points which would've been well in line with post-Dobbs trends (Democrats doing better than Biden, but not 20 points better).

Having said that, yes the media is being slow to recognize that Dobbs has absolutely impacted the midterms.

[Kepler]

Honestly, I think FiveThirtyEight is just grasping at straws trying to keep their “red wave” narrative mixed with a little bit of ignorance.

If you think that you have no idea how they or statistics work.

[French Rage]

Their misunderstanding of RCV and how it actually works isn’t much better. Just because the two Republican candidates got 60% of the first round votes doesn’t mean one of them would’ve gotten 60% in the traditional primary to FPTP general system. And their stupid takes are absolutely feeding into the BS against RCV.

I mean, even if it was FPTP, a plurality wins it, so the Dem still wins. They might say that if there was only one R running then the R would've taken the full 60%, but they could have still had there here if one of the Rs would've backed out. Nothing about this made the R stay in, it could have happened in any FPTP race with one being an independent.

[Handyman]

If you think that you have no idea how they or statistics work.

It isn't about the stats, it is about the fact that they either don't get how rcv works or are being completely obtuse and misrepresenting the math. The arguments are stupid for the average Trumper but stats geeks should know better.

This stuff isn't advanced calculus...anyone who has passed basic algebra can figure it out. Hell read a history book plenty of examples of how this played out in history. Yet still some how the smartest people in the room take the derp argument and run with it.

Ifs and buts...that is what they are using. "If only one GOPer ran..." or "but the vote is split..." that is great and all but in the actual world 2 GOPers did run and they did split the vote so they lost. And it isnt because of misunderstanding ballots or dumb luck its cause Begich voters hate Palin enough to not rank her #2 and cause women hate the GOP.

Their odds are fine overall because they are malleable. As polls continue to add data the numbers will solidify and that is how it is supposed to be. They need to stick to that.

[Kepler]

No. The thing you guys keep missing is all the narratives presented are provisional and meaningless, because 538 is a math site. We read it for politics or sports narratives because we are stupid and that's what sells to us, but all of those narratives are just the trough for the pigs. The math is all that matters and the math doesn't care about the stuff we "know" about politics or sports because we don't know anything about them. We just tell ourselves stories because the future is scary.

538 is, was, and always will be about descriptive, not prescriptive, mathematics. The instant you or I think those numbers "explain" anything IRL, we have categorically misunderstood the site.