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2022 MidTerms & State races- who ya got?

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  • dxmnkd316
    replied
    UPdated for almost all house seats
    Senate Governors Sec of State House
    State Reporting Needed State Reporting Needed State Reporting Needed Code State Reporting Needed
    AZ 77.0% -11.3% AZ 76.6% -4.2% AZ 75.8% -10.5% AK
    GA 93.9% -10.9% NV 86.4% 12.3% NV 86.2% 3.0% H1 AZ 70.9% -3.0%
    NV 86.5% 7.2% GA 94.1% 62.8% GA 93.0% H2 AZ 69.3% 13.0%
    AK 0.0% 1.0% MI 96.1% -104.8% MN 94.2% -74.5% H4 AZ 63.2% -18.4%
    CO 89.0% MN 94.7% -70.3% MI 94.8% -131.8% H6 AZ 77.0% -1.2%
    NH 80.4% WI 96.7% -71.0% H3 CA 62.5% 7.1%
    PA 95.0% H6 CA 26.6% -7.9%
    NC 92.3% H9 CA 53.0% -10.5%
    OH 93.7% H13 CA 41.6% -0.2%
    WI 96.8% 35.3% H21 CA 41.1% -5.8%
    IA 92.7% H22 CA 40.8% 3.3%
    FL 96.5% H23 CA 36.6% 17.6%
    OR H25 CA 37.2% -17.3%
    H26 CA 50.4% -7.6%
    H27 CA 45.6% 14.0%
    H40 CA 38.8% 20.4%
    H41 CA 28.8% -8.7%
    H45 CA 47.8% 10.4%
    H47 CA 59.3% -0.7%
    H49 CA 59.9% -3.4%
    H3 CO 92.8% -6.5%
    H8 CO 73.5% -6.7%
    H5 CT
    H3 IA 88.0% 4.3%
    H17 IL
    H6 MD
    H2 ME
    H10 MI
    H1 MT
    H2 NM
    H1 NV 83.7% -8.9%
    H3 NV 86.0% -2.8%
    H4 NV 80.1% -10.6%
    H4 NY 92.4% 25.1%
    H17 NY 96.0% 11.6%
    H18 NY 95.6% -7.9%
    H19 NY 96.1% 45.5%
    H22 NY 95.8% 13.0%
    H5 OR 66.0% 4.5%
    H6 OR 65.5% -4.1%
    H3 WA 71.7% -8.5%
    H8 WA 61.0% -12.3%
    H10 WA 57.0% -17.0%
    H15 CA
    H34 CA
    H37 CA

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  • Deutsche Gopher Fan
    replied
    Republicans in disarray!!!!

    https://twitter.com/kurteichenwald/s...fmBJzof0OvrfcA

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  • Drew S.
    replied
    Just read that Katie Porter could be in trouble. That would be a shocker if she lost.

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  • Deutsche Gopher Fan
    replied
    Originally posted by Handyman View Post

    Hey remember when Drew said it was bad the Dems helped get election deniers on the ballot and the entire country gave him the finger? Good times :^)
    Haha I just realized- the dems won every race where they meddled in the primary.

    hahahahahahahahah

    something something out of state money is bad!! No fair!!

    Leave a comment:


  • Swansong
    replied
    Either way, the Democrats need to spend the lame duck period punting the debt ceiling into 2025. They absolutely cannot let the fascists hold that cudgel over the country.

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  • Swansong
    replied
    Another thought I saw posted elsewhere. If the margin in the House is under 5, it could easily swing majority back and forth as house members leave and/or die. Special elections could have enormous consequences.

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  • RaceBoarder
    replied
    I'm starting to think that some of the R's are starting to poop bricks after seeing these results. Despite "winning", they know that this wasn't the Red Wave they were bleating about and have gone radio silent for the moment.

    I'm sure Tucker and Co will come up with a new narrative by 8pm EST, but for now it seems to just be shocked silence...

    Leave a comment:


  • Deutsche Gopher Fan
    replied
    Good to see Nate getting roasted.

    his comment yesterday about including such obv biased polls by the GOP was that dems should have done the same.

    maybe everyone can be over him now

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  • Kepler
    replied
    Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post

    Best is a 1-seat margin (obviously). Because the leverage is insane. Do you think McCarthy can get all of his members to always behave 100% of the time?

    I saw someone suggest that the Ds could pick off a single seat with "You can be Speaker if you promise a debt ceiling bill and XYZ". THe leverage is insane.
    cf. Manchin and Sinema.

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  • dxmnkd316
    replied
    Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
    Warnock going to get to 49.53% of the vote. Drawing my line in the sand now.
    Given the number of votes that came in after this, I'm pretty happy with my prediction. 0.12% off (~4,700 votes).

    Leave a comment:


  • Kepler
    replied
    Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post

    He'd need to outperform by >35%. That's almost impossible at this stage from my experience.

    I just odn't think he's got the #s.
    Possible if the remaining tranche is constituted differently from however they constructed the expectation.

    Leave a comment:


  • dxmnkd316
    replied
    Originally posted by Swansong View Post

    Isn't this near best case scenario? The Dems weren't holding it, but having extremely narrow margins seemed like the best of the possible outcomes.

    I'd read that Scalise was ready to pounce on the Speaker position if they had a majority but under 225-230 seats.
    Best is a 1-seat margin (obviously). Because the leverage is insane. Do you think McCarthy can get all of his members to always behave 100% of the time?

    I saw someone suggest that the Ds could pick off a single seat with "You can be Speaker if you promise a debt ceiling bill and XYZ". THe leverage is insane.

    Leave a comment:


  • Kepler
    replied
    Originally posted by Swansong View Post
    Isn't this near best case scenario?
    Yes.

    The only reasonably possible outcome would have been Nuclear Dobbs: women sneaking out of Republican homes between rapings and beatings and voting large numbers of Republican incumbents out. But it isn't as if they got any smarter overnight so, barring that, this was the best we were going to do.

    It will be interesting to see what happens lower on tickets: state leg, judges, city councils, school boards. I hope to hell the last 6 years taught the Dems how essential it is to fight them on the beaches and in the school board meetings and in short to cut off their every possible angle to power at any level. We need the GOP completely out of the game of disenfranchisement, all the way from making the laws to judging them to executing them. We need every brownshirt removed from the windpipe of the republic.

    Last edited by Kepler; 11-09-2022, 12:49 PM.

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  • dxmnkd316
    replied
    Originally posted by Spartanforlife4 View Post
    The simple math still shows Barnes able to catch up with Milwaukee. But it might be the other outstanding in the rural counties that shore up Johnson.
    He'd need to outperform by >35%. That's almost impossible at this stage from my experience.

    I just odn't think he's got the #s.

    Leave a comment:


  • Kepler
    replied
    Originally posted by Swansong View Post

    It's very and truly remarkable that this man has even the slightest chance at being a US Senator. Positively embarrassing.
    I mean... Dump was President of the United States.

    Leave a comment:

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