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2022 MidTerms & State races- who ya got?

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  • FadeToBlack&Gold
    replied
    Originally posted by Kepler View Post

    Like I said, I think very few of us are equipped to handle it. We all came off the same conveyor belt. Certain speech acts are not permissible.

    Young white females were always going to vote in huge numbers for Dems. But young white males did, also, when they could easily have followed middle aged and old white males into the clutches of the GOP.

    Heroism is going above and beyond. We cannot be blind to what happened simply because of the wholly predictable unthinking backlash that will unleash. Once we realize that, and finally start responding to a changing reality with thought rather than predigested scripts, we will be able to actually deal with reality. In this instance, a reality which promises to save everyone.
    That may be, but I'm not about to heap too much praise on white men. There's still a lot of derp out there, and we've gotten our kudos over the centuries that we've been in charge of the western world.

    Leave a comment:


  • ScoobyDoo
    replied
    He has to run cause he figures that Garland won't go after him if he's running. Presidential Immunity BS. Garland is probably going to puss out on arresting him now that the election is over because of the run-off in Georgia. Which means Dump got another month reprieve.

    Leave a comment:


  • FadeToBlack&Gold
    replied
    Originally posted by RaceBoarder View Post

    Does the Roaring Fork valley have much of a permanent population nowadays?

    I thought that was one of the first areas that cleared out the locals when the vacation economy moved towards it's current status in the late 90's.
    My impression is that if you aren't independently wealthy or can't get into subsidized resort employee housing, you're living in Glenwood Springs and taking the bus 40 miles up-valley into Aspen every workday. For awhile Carbondale was an affordable alternative, but now even that has its own downtown and pricey real estate for people who can't afford Aspen but want to be adjacent.

    Leave a comment:


  • RaceBoarder
    replied
    Originally posted by burd View Post

    I have a hard time seeing Dump making a serious run if he doesn't get the nom. He's too afraid of losing again, and the writing on the wall will be pretty clear if he can't even get his party's support. His only option would be to become the face of the revolution. More likely he resorts to Pout and Spout from his Fla. HQ.

    It would be cool, though, to see him campaign from prison on a work-release.
    He'll just claim that the primary was "rigged" and that the R's want to muffle the voice of the REAL "Real Americans".

    Leave a comment:


  • French Rage
    replied
    Originally posted by burd View Post

    He's too afraid of losing again,
    That would be true if he were even able to conceive of the possibility that he actually lost, and past experience has not shown that to be so.

    Leave a comment:


  • burd
    replied
    Originally posted by RaceBoarder View Post

    That's the neat part!

    They stick with Trump. Trump will claim that the R system is rigged. In the process he will tick off DeSantis' people. If Dump wins the primary, DeSantis' people no-show. If Dump loses (better scenario), he runs as an indie, with every vote for him being someone who would otherwise vote R. If a state is even the SLIGHTEST bit purple, this hands it to D's.
    I have a hard time seeing Dump making a serious run if he doesn't get the nom. He's too afraid of losing again, and the writing on the wall will be pretty clear if he can't even get his party's support. His only option would be to become the face of the revolution. More likely he resorts to Pout and Spout from his Fla. HQ.

    It would be cool, though, to see him campaign from prison on a work-release.

    Leave a comment:


  • RaceBoarder
    replied
    Originally posted by rufus View Post

    But what do all the MAGAts do once the Republicans start slamming on Trumpy?
    That's the neat part!

    They stick with Trump. Trump will claim that the R system is rigged. In the process he will tick off DeSantis' people. If Dump wins the primary, DeSantis' people no-show. If Dump loses (better scenario), he runs as an indie, with every vote for him being someone who would otherwise vote R. If a state is even the SLIGHTEST bit purple, this hands it to D's.

    Leave a comment:


  • dxmnkd316
    replied
    Originally posted by Swansong View Post
    Moulton tripped out of the gate by trying to oust Pelosi as a rookie back bencher, and she punished him for it.

    Hopefully, when Pelosi retires, if Moulton is still in Congress he can move forward again.
    It wasn't just that, remember that he was one of the dumb****s who flew to Afghanistan without authorization durign the evacuation last year? This moron shouldn't be anywhere near a leadership position.

    Leave a comment:


  • Swansong
    replied
    Originally posted by rufus View Post

    But what do all the MAGAts do once the Republicans start slamming on Trumpy?
    I think there are two distinct kinds of MAGA Chuds.
    • Trump cultists. These people largely don't vote and if they do, only for Trump. The biggest mistake the GQP ever paid was to embrace these trolls and rely on them, because they will not follow the party onto the next guy. Further, they're usually so odious that they drive away that big squishy middle that both parties need.
    • Non-Trumpist bullies. Ben Shapiro. Ron DeSantis. Greg Abbott. And their voters (like much of my family). These people likely despise Trump personally but will cognitive-dissonance themselves into dismissing all the problems with Trump-the-person because they like the result. Give them a Ron DeSantis or someone else who does basically the same thing but minus the TRUMP and they'll jump in a heartbeat.

    The questions to me are:
    1. Who will win in a primary series?
    2. What will Trump do if he doesn't win?

    Leave a comment:


  • Swansong
    replied
    Moulton tripped out of the gate by trying to oust Pelosi as a rookie back bencher, and she punished him for it.

    Hopefully, when Pelosi retires, if Moulton is still in Congress he can move forward again.

    Leave a comment:


  • bronconick
    replied
    So the response from GOP pundits who had a red trickle over the tsunami has been to

    1. Raise the voting age to 21 and
    2. Find unmarried women that voted 68% Dem and "put a ring on it."

    Leave a comment:


  • rufus
    replied
    Originally posted by RaceBoarder View Post

    Reality is setting in and they realize there is no path forward...

    Of course Dumpy doesn't realize this.
    But what do all the MAGAts do once the Republicans start slamming on Trumpy?

    Leave a comment:


  • ericredaxe
    replied
    Originally posted by Drew S. View Post

    Seth Moulton seems much better on paper than in reality. He always comes across really phony and unlikable to me.
    Really? My impression is the exact opposite. He seems super genuine and very likable to me.

    Leave a comment:


  • Drew S.
    replied
    Originally posted by ericredaxe View Post

    I like Abrams, but she is 0 for 2 in a swing state that Democrats will need to win (especially if Florida continues trending red). Fetterman I'd like to hear more from (and ensure his health is ok) before putting him at the top of the ticket. Possible options that come to mind might be Roy Cooper, Jared Polis. Gavin Newsom seems to be positioning himself for a run at some point. I've also been a big fan of Seth Moulton for some time.... would love to see him take another run. I'm also still a Kamala fan.
    Seth Moulton seems much better on paper than in reality. He always comes across really phony and unlikable to me.

    Leave a comment:


  • dxmnkd316
    replied
    Morning update:

    CCM tightens her race a bit but the governor's race gets wider.
    NV's house races are all still looking good.
    Porter's race gets a hair better for her.

    CA-45 also got a bit bluer.
    We've got to be getting close to a called race in AZ senate

    Final project still stands at 217-218

    Senate Governors Sec of State House
    State Reporting Needed State Reporting Needed State Reporting Needed Code State Reporting Needed
    AZ 80.4% -12.6% AZ 80.0% -3.6% AZ 79.1% -11.5% AK D
    AK 70.3% 133.2% NV 90.4% 13.9% NV 90.2% 0.3% H1 AZ 75.1% -3.2% D
    GA 93.9% -10.9% GA 94.1% GA 93.0% H2 AZ 69.9% R
    NV 90.5% 6.2% MI 96.1% MN 94.2% H4 AZ 73.4% -26.1% D
    CO 90.5% MN 94.7% MI 95.9% H6 AZ 81.5% 3.9% R
    NH 83.6% WI 96.9% H3 CA 63.2% 7.1% R
    PA 95.6% H6 CA 26.6% -7.9% D
    NC 92.3% H9 CA 53.0% -10.5% D
    OH 93.7% H13 CA 41.6% -0.2% D
    WI 96.9% H21 CA 41.1% -5.8% D
    IA 92.7% H22 CA 40.8% 3.3% R
    FL 96.5% H23 CA 37.1% R
    H25 CA 39.4% -17.7% D
    H26 CA 50.4% -7.6% D
    H27 CA 45.6% 14.0% R
    H40 CA 39.7% R
    H41 CA 28.8% -8.7% D
    H45 CA 48.9% 10.2% R
    H47 CA 60.3% -1.2% D
    H49 CA 60.4% -3.6% D
    H3 CO 94.1% -0.7% D
    H8 CO 84.2% -4.5% D
    H5 CT 96.5% -8.4% D
    H17 IL 92.6% -21.2% D
    H3 IA 90.4% 4.3% R
    H2 ME 48.4% -74.7% D
    H6 MD 75.9% -2.5% D
    H10 MI 99.0% R
    H1 MT 93.5% 30.0% R
    H1 NV 85.7% -12.4% D
    H3 NV 87.9% -6.3% D
    H4 NV 83.8% -13.7% D
    H2 NM 92.0% -5.6% D
    H4 NY 92.5% R
    H17 NY 97.0% R
    H18 NY 95.6% -7.9% D
    H19 NY 96.1% R
    H22 NY 98.0% 17.1% R
    H5 OR 70.6% 5.2% R
    H6 OR 73.7% -4.9% D
    H3 WA 78.2% -9.0% D
    H8 WA 67.4% -14.3% D
    H10 WA 65.7% -21.7% D
    H15 CA D
    H34 CA D
    H37 CA D

    Leave a comment:

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