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2022 MidTerms & State races- who ya got?

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  • Handyman
    replied
    https://twitter.com/DavidEdwards/sta...51056748720128

    Kari Lake suggested Ron DeSantis is part of a conspiracy to "slow roll" her election results. "You know, Ron DeSantis goes out and gives his big speech and then they want to make it look like the Trump Republicans don't have a chance."
    It is already starting...

    Leave a comment:


  • Handyman
    replied
    Yeah...you are doing a great job but math is not happy with how things are going ;^)

    BTW every state should do what Colorado does...it will prolong things a bit but it makes voting so much easier for people who maybe can't get around.

    Leave a comment:


  • dxmnkd316
    replied
    Originally posted by Spartanforlife4 View Post
    Boebertâ??s now up 800 after same day votes came in from Pueblo. It sounds like there are still 5000 or so left for mail-in. Frisch needs to win at least 58% or more from those to eek it out. This is probably getting dragged out another week for the military deadline .
    Interesting. Because I"m seeing the votes coming in from Otero. Or rather, three additional precincts reported complete with that vote dump, and still 128/128 in Pueblo.

    Originally posted by Handyman View Post
    So in Colorado, I guess you can put your ballot in a box anywhere and it will go to the proper precinct. (if I am reading right) While that is very helpful for the voter it is probably why there is weirdness happening with the votes.

    This comes up because Pitkin County is waiting on more to arrive.
    So this makes more sense why it's 128/128 reporting but votes are still coming in from those counties.


    Edit: I don't think any model does well with races this close. Too sensitive to small changes. :-)

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  • Spartanforlife4
    replied
    Boebert’s now up 800 after same day votes came in from Pueblo. It sounds like there are still 5000 or so left for mail-in. Frisch needs to win at least 58% or more from those to eek it out. This is probably getting dragged out another week for the military deadline .

    Leave a comment:


  • Handyman
    replied
    So in Colorado, I guess you can put your ballot in a box anywhere and it will go to the proper precinct. (if I am reading right) While that is very helpful for the voter it is probably why there is weirdness happening with the votes.

    This comes up because Pitkin County is waiting on more to arrive.

    Leave a comment:


  • Handyman
    replied
    Originally posted by Russell Jaslow View Post

    Just the opposite. It increases MTG's power. She will lead a small group of extremist votes which she can ransom off to any R agenda that comes up in the House. Think how a Parliamentary system works -- the smaller parties sometimes have more power than the majority party. This is where MTG will fall into.

    Impeachment may be off the table, but she will cause a lot more trouble in other areas.
    There isn't much trouble to cause though. Sure she can scream and yell and get put on committees and jam them up, but she has no authority to do anything and she certainly won't have a full on coalition of the GOP. All you need is 1 Kinzinger and she is as impotent as her soon to be ex husband. ;^)

    If it was someone that was less, ummm, vitriolic I would agree with you 100%. If it was someone who was, umm, more political I would 100% agree with you. She will do more damage to them than she will to the country if she is the face of the Trumper Wing of a slim majority. (see also: Gaetz, Matt)

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  • Kepler
    replied
    Originally posted by Russell Jaslow View Post

    Just the opposite. It increases MTG's power. She will lead a small group of extremist votes which she can ransom off to any R agenda that comes up in the House. Think how a Parliamentary system works -- the smaller parties sometimes have more power than the majority party. This is where MTG will fall into.

    Impeachment may be off the table, but she will cause a lot more trouble in other areas.
    Colbert's guest made this point very well. "The optimal majority for any Member is one, because every man is a king." The smaller Meadows' majority, the more chaos and the more ulcers he gets. When he was Speaker, Newt Gingrich called his own party "fucking cannibals."

    Leave a comment:


  • Bronco
    replied
    Originally posted by FadeToBlack&Gold View Post

    I'm a little worried about getting a bunch of 18-22 year-olds to see how Uncle Joe gets credit and to vote for an octogenarian who is old enough to remember segregation, but as long as they do then demographics will not favor the GOP any longer.

    For the good of the party, I hope some of our fossilized Dems in Congress are convinced to retire in 2024, particularly in the Senate. Debbie Stabenow, I'm looking at you - you'll be 74 in 2024, it's time to hand over the reins. I can think of at least 3 MI women who should be in the running to take over her seat.
    I have no problem with Stabenow. I didn't have a problem with Levin either tbh. Senate positions are too precious to risk so I'm fine with another 6 years of Stabenow than have it up to chance with another Peters type election. Or ideally Stabenow gets re-elected and then retires 2 years into the term with Whitmer replacing her.

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  • Russell Jaslow
    replied
    Originally posted by Handyman View Post
    If dxs projection is right and it ends up 218-217 I think we might see McCarthy go apoplectic because (and yes I do honestly mean this) I think Biden can get a non-Trumper Rep to switch sides on certain issues. It won't be anything major mind you but enough to continue to show how good he actually is at his job.

    Also, a one seat majority will likely kill MTGs coming "IM GUNA IMPEACH DA BIDEN!!1@" act.
    Just the opposite. It increases MTG's power. She will lead a small group of extremist votes which she can ransom off to any R agenda that comes up in the House. Think how a Parliamentary system works -- the smaller parties sometimes have more power than the majority party. This is where MTG will fall into.

    Impeachment may be off the table, but she will cause a lot more trouble in other areas.

    Leave a comment:


  • Spartanforlife4
    replied
    CO-08 is interesting because the Republican conceded yesterday while still within very close range and it’s only gotten closer. Now within 150 votes.

    Leave a comment:


  • Spartanforlife4
    replied
    Yeah, I don’t think Colorado’s system works great for the data. It appears that precincts can and do report multiple times. Dx, you said Pueblo was far under expected votes yesterday. It sounds like there is still a good chunk to go. Whether those votes work in Frisch’s favor depending on same day or late mail and yada yada is a different story (if that type of trend even happens in CO), but either these reporters are being lied to by clerks or there are still votes out there in blue counties.

    Leave a comment:


  • Handyman
    replied
    Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post

    Keep in mind, my data doesn't rely on news reports, it relies on the actual data.

    What matters is how many precincts are reporting, how many votes are in, who the votes were cast for, and then uses that in combination with the expected # of votes to determine the state of the race.

    My previous post said that it looked like the counties that Frisch was more heavily favored didn't have any outstanding precincts left. The overwhelming majority of precincts left were in red counties.
    Right but I wasnt talking about your previous post I was referencing the one Spartan posted from the local person this morning saying that seems to be inaccurate.

    I know where you are getting your data, and from what I am seeing it seems even the official sources (i.e. government sites counting the ballots) are not up to speed right now. The precincts seem to be a mess in quite a few places.

    (not saying you are wrong, just saying you might be premature ;^) )
    Last edited by Handyman; 11-10-2022, 03:25 PM.

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  • Handyman
    replied
    I made this comment on Twitter election night in response to someone saying they want the media to talk about how the GOP rhetoric turned off voters:

    "Good luck with that. By this time next week we will be hearing about how tonight was actually BAD for the Dems because "Dems in Disarray" is all the corporate media cares about."

    Someone responded to my comment with this:




    Non-Trumper Twitter is not being kind to the Times right now and I am here for it!

    Leave a comment:


  • dxmnkd316
    replied
    Originally posted by Handyman View Post
    That doesn't seem to jive with the post previous to yours?

    And I am sure it is just how you worded it messing with me, but why would a county in CO affect the other counties you mentioned?

    Anyways I think you might want to wait on updating because it seems all the news out there (even from official sites) is suspect whether it is good or bad at this moment.
    Keep in mind, my data doesn't rely on news reports, it relies on the actual data.

    What matters is how many precincts are reporting, how many votes are in, who the votes were cast for, and then uses that in combination with the expected # of votes to determine the state of the race.

    My previous post said that it looked like the counties that Frisch was more heavily favored didn't have any outstanding precincts left. The overwhelming majority of precincts left were in red counties.

    Leave a comment:


  • Handyman
    replied
    That doesn't seem to jive with the post previous to yours?

    And I am sure it is just how you worded it messing with me, but why would a county in CO affect the other counties you mentioned?

    Anyways I think you might want to wait on updating because it seems all the news out there (even from official sites) is suspect whether it is good or bad at this moment.

    Leave a comment:

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