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2022 MidTerms & State races- who ya got?

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  • Jimjamesak
    replied
    Originally posted by ScoobyDoo View Post
    None of their issues ever die down. The only one that might be backfiring is Roe V Wade. They actually caught the car that time and it might bite them in the ***. But, CRT, all that stuff? Still going strong. Hunter Biden and the millions and millions of caravans traveling through Mexico still feed the beast.
    RCV must be working because I haven’t had any of that trash up here. The abortion stuff is killing them though.

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  • ScoobyDoo
    replied
    None of their issues ever die down. The only one that might be backfiring is Roe V Wade. They actually caught the car that time and it might bite them in the ***. But, CRT, all that stuff? Still going strong. Hunter Biden and the millions and millions of caravans traveling through Mexico still feed the beast.

    Leave a comment:


  • Kepler
    replied
    Originally posted by ScoobyDoo View Post
    There is hope. Let's hope the country in 2022 is smarter than Virginia in 2021.
    Let's hope, but I'm not sure I see any evidence of that.

    BTW did the CRT idiocy finally calm down? They should have waited and ridden that in an on year. It was a perfect conservative boogie man, like bathrooms and flag burning, but I'm not sure you can go back to that well.

    I guess from that list, though, just find the next unbelievably stupid thing. The Right has no bottom to how craven its Members are or how stupid its voters are.

    It is great that the people who think everything is a conspiracy are the people who are so easily led around by the nose.

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  • Jimjamesak
    replied
    FiveThirtyEight with some mostly good analysis on the Alaska races. Their thoughts on the House race are much the same as mine, if Begich finishes third it's a crapshoot on where his votes will go but if Palin (somehow) finishes third then Begich will win. Their Senate analysis is mostly on point, Tshibaka is at her ~40% ceiling while Murkowski is in great shape going into the RCV election (for the record I'm Chesbro 1 and Murkowski 2 in November). Their Governor analysis is waaaaaaaaaaay off though, almost no one who is voting for Walker is going to rank Dunleavy as their 2. Dunleavy has also probably hit his max number in this primary like Tshibaka.

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  • ScoobyDoo
    replied
    There is hope. Let's hope the country in 2022 is smarter than Virginia in 2021.

    Leave a comment:


  • Swansong
    replied
    I don't put much faith into polling but the non-specific crosstabs about demographics and preferences, combined with the enormous increase in women registering since Dobbs does give me some hope.

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  • Deutsche Gopher Fan
    replied
    Lol, fox poll has dads up 28 for D candidates

    https://twitter.com/rachelbitecofer/...4BqX89f1at9ipw

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  • Deutsche Gopher Fan
    replied
    Speaking of the Bible, saw an interesting yard sign today on my walk.

    I live near a church- don’t even know what kind, don’t care- I just know it’s not catholic. But the house next to it has a yard sign directly facing church that said “people of faith for reproductive rights”

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  • Kepler
    replied
    I assume after the GOP gets done stopping non-whites from voting they'll start the repeal of the 19th Amendment cuz the Bible.

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  • Jimjamesak
    replied
    Originally posted by Spartanforlife4 View Post

    From what I’ve read a lot of the outstanding vote is from heavily Dem areas as well. Not sure how many votes it will get since it’s rural areas, but not often the Dem is even in contention.
    It won’t be a huge amount but it’ll be enough to push Peltola’s numbers well into the 40s. The other surprise is how well she’s doing in a low turnout election too. Turnout was only around 25% for this election.

    Originally posted by Spartanforlife4
    How did a Begich end up as a Republican in Alaska?
    I don’t really know. If I had to guess he’s probably just an opportunist who saw a path to power.

    Hilarious that he’s getting beat though, he has spent a lot of his (family) money and a lot of funding from Americans For Prosperity to finish third.

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  • Handyman
    replied
    Originally posted by WeAreNDHockey View Post

    God if only these trends continued and these people show up at the polls.
    What, besides overt pessimism, tells you they won't. Its been trending this way for months now and I highly doubt people registered so they can wait in line for the primaries...

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  • Spartanforlife4
    replied
    Originally posted by Jimjamesak View Post
    The general assumption right now is Palin will win because Begich’s votes will just transfer to her, which is a good assumption but one I’m kind of skeptical on. I get the whole “Republicans will just pick the other Republican” thing but Palin is deeply unpopular among a good portion of the population here and there’s a good chance a good portion of Begich’s votes either ranked Peltola second or, more likely, left the second choice blank.
    From what I’ve read a lot of the outstanding vote is from heavily Dem areas as well. Not sure how many votes it will get since it’s rural areas, but not often the Dem is even in contention.

    How did a Begich end up as a Republican in Alaska?

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  • WeAreNDHockey
    replied
    Originally posted by Deutsche Gopher Fan View Post
    But…but…the silent majority durrrrrrr

    this data can’t make the nazis feel good right now. Better find new ways to purge or suppress voters

    https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1...p_17VYHz9pEh2A
    God if only these trends continued and these people show up at the polls.

    I believe it to be apocryphal (and I could be wrong) but a lot of people claim that various anti-marriage equality bills on ballots in 2004 helped drive voter turnout of republicans and aided in W's re-election. Thinking about that leaves me wondering if putting specific things on November's ballots, especially in purple states, regarding preserving women's access to safe healthcare or enshrining a right to choose in a state consitution is what we really need to drive people to the polls. It's one thing to remind people that they can vote for politicians who believe that women have brains and deserve to control their own bodies and overall not treating them like cattle or property, but maybe we need more than that.

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  • Kepler
    replied
    Originally posted by WeAreNDHockey View Post
    Over under on how many versions of "shut up and dribble" we'll get from the various checkpoints of the GQP?
    I saw the perfect tag line for this election:

    Vote like you may not get another chance.
    End the Right. Save the world.

    Leave a comment:


  • Jimjamesak
    replied
    The general assumption right now is Palin will win because Begich’s votes will just transfer to her, which is a good assumption but one I’m kind of skeptical on. I get the whole “Republicans will just pick the other Republican” thing but Palin is deeply unpopular among a good portion of the population here and there’s a good chance a good portion of Begich’s votes either ranked Peltola second or, more likely, left the second choice blank.

    Leave a comment:

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