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2022 MidTerms & State races- who ya got?

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  • Jimjamesak
    replied
    Originally posted by Handyman View Post

    Its weird. I mean it isn't like people are going to think Wasserman or Cook Reports are bad because their forecast had to change after a few months. Hell that used to be the point, you collect data over the course of many months/years so you can evaluate trends and look for patterns. This is, BY FAR, the easiest trend to see and yet they just don't want to see it.

    I get the sense some, Wasserman especially, are waiting for the other shoe to drop and flip things back to an easy Red Wave. They always seems to be in a state of hedge about this. Ironically, they are using previous trends (Presidents party gets hammered in the midterms) to try and disprove a trend. Past results do not guarantee future results seems to be lost in this argument right now.

    I am not saying btw that Palin being valley gutter trash and hated by Alaskans doesn't play into this, it obviously does. But that doesn't discount the facts you laid out in your post. (and other pundits did on Twitter) The GOP lost because women don't like them. It is happening all over the place and the fact that female registration is on the rise in almost every state is a bad sign for the GOP.
    On this Alaska race they are absolutely hedging despite a mountain of evidence that Peltola’s chances get better in November (the electorate swings ~15+D from primary to general being a big one).

    I think nationally they’re just too stuck on Biden and his approval ratings.

    Leave a comment:


  • rufus
    replied
    Solution: Repeal the 19th Amendment.

    Leave a comment:


  • Handyman
    replied
    Originally posted by Jimjamesak View Post
    Yeah, I posted in the states thread where a local numbers guy gleamed from the data that women were the majority of voters in the election despite Alaska having a majority of men as registered voters.

    It’s amazing that they all this data staring them in the face yet they ignore it.
    Its weird. I mean it isn't like people are going to think Wasserman or Cook Reports are bad because their forecast had to change after a few months. Hell that used to be the point, you collect data over the course of many months/years so you can evaluate trends and look for patterns. This is, BY FAR, the easiest trend to see and yet they just don't want to see it.

    I get the sense some, Wasserman especially, are waiting for the other shoe to drop and flip things back to an easy Red Wave. They always seems to be in a state of hedge about this. Ironically, they are using previous trends (Presidents party gets hammered in the midterms) to try and disprove a trend. Past results do not guarantee future results seems to be lost in this argument right now.

    I am not saying btw that Palin being valley gutter trash and hated by Alaskans doesn't play into this, it obviously does. But that doesn't discount the facts you laid out in your post. (and other pundits did on Twitter) The GOP lost because women don't like them. It is happening all over the place and the fact that female registration is on the rise in almost every state is a bad sign for the GOP.

    Leave a comment:


  • Kepler
    replied
    One thing abut the abortion ruling is unlike most political mistakes it doesn't fade with time. Every time a woman risks her life now, or has her life ruined, the brand burns that much worse.

    The GOP made the two most significant political errors in modern American history within a 6-year span. Parties have died for less.

    Leave a comment:


  • Jimjamesak
    replied
    Originally posted by Handyman View Post

    Yeah a lot of people with a lot of egg on their face are making excuses for why this happened. (and has been happening) Last night lots of people on Twitter were pointing out how now all of the people who 2 months ago guaranteed a Red Wave are finding excuses they might be wrong but all seem to be ignoring the obvious reasons right in front of their face. Like Wasserman at Cook who refuses to see this as part of a trend (Dems overperforming Biden's numbers post Dobbs) and just blames it all on Palin.

    Its like in sports, if there is a big upset it is never that the "lesser" team won it is that the "better" team choked.
    Yeah, I posted in the states thread where a local numbers guy gleamed from the data that women were the majority of voters in the election despite Alaska having a majority of men as registered voters.

    It’s amazing that they all this data staring them in the face yet they ignore it.

    Leave a comment:


  • Handyman
    replied
    Originally posted by Jimjamesak View Post
    Unsurprisingly the national media is playing up the “Sarah Palin lost” factor instead of the “maybe a relatively unknown Democrat who overcame a 4 to 1 funding disadvantage in an R+10 state against a former Governor and VP candidate and a member of a political dynasty family ran a pretty good campaign” factor.
    Yeah a lot of people with a lot of egg on their face are making excuses for why this happened. (and has been happening) Last night lots of people on Twitter were pointing out how now all of the people who 2 months ago guaranteed a Red Wave are finding excuses they might be wrong but all seem to be ignoring the obvious reasons right in front of their face. Like Wasserman at Cook who refuses to see this as part of a trend (Dems overperforming Biden's numbers post Dobbs) and just blames it all on Palin.

    Its like in sports, if there is a big upset it is never that the "lesser" team won it is that the "better" team choked.

    Leave a comment:


  • Jimjamesak
    replied
    Unsurprisingly the national media is playing up the “Sarah Palin lost” factor instead of the “maybe a relatively unknown Democrat who overcame a 4 to 1 funding disadvantage in an R+10 state against a former Governor and VP candidate and a member of a political dynasty family ran a pretty good campaign” factor.

    Leave a comment:


  • Spartanforlife4
    replied
    Originally posted by Jimjamesak View Post
    Talking about it in the States thread but, yeah.

    I am absolutely shocked but so, so happy.
    Ah, shoot. Didn’t see that thread. Hope she can repeat in November.

    Leave a comment:


  • Jimjamesak
    replied
    Originally posted by Spartanforlife4 View Post
    In an interesting turn of fortune, Peltola wins in Alaska and will take over Don Young’s seat, defeating Nick Begich (and Palin). She is the first Democratic rep since Nicholas Begich, Nick’s grandfather who disappeared in a plane crash and whose open slot started Young’s 49 year stint.
    Talking about it in the States thread but, yeah.

    I am absolutely shocked but so, so happy.

    Leave a comment:


  • Spartanforlife4
    replied
    In an interesting turn of fortune, Peltola wins in Alaska and will take over Don Young’s seat, defeating Nick Begich (and Palin). She is the first Democratic rep since Nicholas Begich, Nick’s grandfather who disappeared in a plane crash and whose open slot started Young’s 49 year stint.

    Leave a comment:


  • state of hockey
    replied
    Cripes I love this woman.

    https://twitter.com/mrbenwexler/stat...Lp3yvuXaPZUxWA

    Leave a comment:


  • jericho
    replied
    Originally posted by scoobydoo View Post
    are scott jensen and matt birk the best the minnesota gop has to offer? Jfc, i've never seen two more idiotic clowns running for office in this state in my entire life. Ventura could run circles around them on any intelligence test.

    https://twitter.com/birkmatt/status/1565031827454189568
    41-0 :-d

    Leave a comment:


  • Handyman
    replied
    Originally posted by ScoobyDoo View Post
    Are Scott Jensen and Matt Birk the best the Minnesota GOP has to offer? jfc, I've never seen two more idiotic clowns running for office in this State in my entire life. Ventura could run circles around them on any intelligence test.

    https://twitter.com/BirkMatt/status/1565031827454189568
    Yes they are the best. And yes Jesse would destroy these clowns. Jesse at least had experience when he ran. He also had a remnants of a platform. These losers are running on "inclusivity is bad and women should stay home and raise the kids" now that abortion is unpopular. (Notice it isn't what they talk about anymore)

    And they are running this knowing it guarantees a loss because they agreed gonna get crushed in the Twin Cities and other populated areas all of which are dark dark blue. But the empty fields will support it!

    Leave a comment:


  • ScoobyDoo
    replied
    Are Scott Jensen and Matt Birk the best the Minnesota GOP has to offer? jfc, I've never seen two more idiotic clowns running for office in this State in my entire life. Ventura could run circles around them on any intelligence test.

    https://twitter.com/BirkMatt/status/1565031827454189568

    Leave a comment:


  • Handyman
    replied
    Cook has been trending that way for a bit. Wasserman first floated that idea a week or so ago based on trends.

    Leave a comment:

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