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2022 MidTerms & State races- who ya got?

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  • Originally posted by burd View Post

    If Rs gain control or the House and deliver on promises to impeach Biden for obviously insufficient reasons, all while Dump is being prosecuted in various jurisdictions, it seems that could actually help Ds in '24, not with Dump's base but with the margin voters who are so important now.

    I'm ashamed for Wisconsin re: RJ.
    If they do the two things they promised (shut down the government and investigate the Bidens) the Dems will sweep both houses and Biden cakewalks. They needed a Red Wave to survive those moves and it never happened.

    WI electing RoJo sucks, but they re-elected Evers so the Blue Wall of Governors holds. We stopped the steal in '24.
    "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
    -aparch

    "Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
    -INCH

    Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
    -ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007

    Comment


    • Maybe the latest mail-in batch for Washoe showed up in Dx's calculations, now being confirmed by Ralston on Twitter: mail-in went back toward R slightly. All comes down to Clark.

      Comment


      • 215-220 R house
        Code:
        As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
        College Hockey 6       College Football 0
        BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
        Originally posted by SanTropez
        May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
        Originally posted by bigblue_dl
        I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
        Originally posted by Kepler
        When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
        He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Handyman View Post

          Maybe dxs spreadsheet glitches cause of mail in votes?
          COuld be. I don't account for mail in vs same-day or early.

          I just use existing results to say how much they need to outperform.

          7.2% is a big gap with so few votes remaining.
          Code:
          As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
          College Hockey 6       College Football 0
          BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
          Originally posted by SanTropez
          May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
          Originally posted by bigblue_dl
          I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
          Originally posted by Kepler
          When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
          He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

          Comment


          • And Georgia goes to a runoff.

            herschel ****ing walker. Anyone who voted for him should be ashamed

            Comment


            • Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
              215-220 R house
              Isn't this near best case scenario? The Dems weren't holding it, but having extremely narrow margins seemed like the best of the possible outcomes.

              I'd read that Scalise was ready to pounce on the Speaker position if they had a majority but under 225-230 seats.
              I gotta little bit of smoke and a whole lotta wine...

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Deutsche Gopher Fan View Post
                And Georgia goes to a runoff.

                herschel ****ing walker. Anyone who voted for him should be ashamed
                It's very and truly remarkable that this man has even the slightest chance at being a US Senator. Positively embarrassing.
                I gotta little bit of smoke and a whole lotta wine...

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Swansong View Post

                  It's very and truly remarkable that this man has even the slightest chance at being a US Senator. Positively embarrassing.
                  2 million votes, w tf
                  I swear there ain't no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell.

                  Maine Hockey Love it or Leave it

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Swansong View Post

                    It's very and truly remarkable that this man has even the slightest chance at being a US Senator. Positively embarrassing.
                    I mean... Dump was President of the United States.
                    Cornell University
                    National Champion 1967, 1970
                    ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                    Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Spartanforlife4 View Post
                      The simple math still shows Barnes able to catch up with Milwaukee. But it might be the other outstanding in the rural counties that shore up Johnson.
                      He'd need to outperform by >35%. That's almost impossible at this stage from my experience.

                      I just odn't think he's got the #s.
                      Code:
                      As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
                      College Hockey 6       College Football 0
                      BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                      Originally posted by SanTropez
                      May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                      Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                      I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                      Originally posted by Kepler
                      When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                      He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Swansong View Post
                        Isn't this near best case scenario?
                        Yes.

                        The only reasonably possible outcome would have been Nuclear Dobbs: women sneaking out of Republican homes between rapings and beatings and voting large numbers of Republican incumbents out. But it isn't as if they got any smarter overnight so, barring that, this was the best we were going to do.

                        It will be interesting to see what happens lower on tickets: state leg, judges, city councils, school boards. I hope to hell the last 6 years taught the Dems how essential it is to fight them on the beaches and in the school board meetings and in short to cut off their every possible angle to power at any level. We need the GOP completely out of the game of disenfranchisement, all the way from making the laws to judging them to executing them. We need every brownshirt removed from the windpipe of the republic.

                        Last edited by Kepler; 11-09-2022, 11:49 AM.
                        Cornell University
                        National Champion 1967, 1970
                        ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                        Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Swansong View Post

                          Isn't this near best case scenario? The Dems weren't holding it, but having extremely narrow margins seemed like the best of the possible outcomes.

                          I'd read that Scalise was ready to pounce on the Speaker position if they had a majority but under 225-230 seats.
                          Best is a 1-seat margin (obviously). Because the leverage is insane. Do you think McCarthy can get all of his members to always behave 100% of the time?

                          I saw someone suggest that the Ds could pick off a single seat with "You can be Speaker if you promise a debt ceiling bill and XYZ". THe leverage is insane.
                          Code:
                          As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
                          College Hockey 6       College Football 0
                          BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                          Originally posted by SanTropez
                          May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                          Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                          I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                          Originally posted by Kepler
                          When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                          He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post

                            He'd need to outperform by >35%. That's almost impossible at this stage from my experience.

                            I just odn't think he's got the #s.
                            Possible if the remaining tranche is constituted differently from however they constructed the expectation.
                            Cornell University
                            National Champion 1967, 1970
                            ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                            Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
                              Warnock going to get to 49.53% of the vote. Drawing my line in the sand now.
                              Given the number of votes that came in after this, I'm pretty happy with my prediction. 0.12% off (~4,700 votes).
                              Code:
                              As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
                              College Hockey 6       College Football 0
                              BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                              Originally posted by SanTropez
                              May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                              Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                              I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                              Originally posted by Kepler
                              When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                              He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post

                                Best is a 1-seat margin (obviously). Because the leverage is insane. Do you think McCarthy can get all of his members to always behave 100% of the time?

                                I saw someone suggest that the Ds could pick off a single seat with "You can be Speaker if you promise a debt ceiling bill and XYZ". THe leverage is insane.
                                cf. Manchin and Sinema.
                                Cornell University
                                National Champion 1967, 1970
                                ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                                Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

                                Comment

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