SCOTUS, Now with KBJ

[unofan]

6-3, against Justice Pubic Hair, Justice Yacht Bribe, and Justice Handmaid? Or will Justice Beer Boy go for it too?

Thomas and Alito for sure. Barrett is next most likely. Then Gorsuch, then Kavanaugh. I think Kavanaugh is less likely to go down that rabbit hole because Gorsuch can claim its a state's rights thing.

[unofan]

You don't think they'll bounce those cases on standing? Regardless of what they think of student loan relief, I find it hard to believe that this court wants to spend it's time listening to a broad set of challenges by various states on yet unnamed issues.

I think they should do that, and would be happy if they did, but I think they'll skirt around it. If they wanted to kick based on standing, it likely would've come out Friday with the immigration one that was also kicked for lack of standing.

[mookie1995]

did Laura ingraham ever blow Thomas?

[SJHovey]

Student loan relief goes bye bye.

You don't think they'll bounce those cases on standing? Regardless of what they think of student loan relief, I find it hard to believe that this court wants to spend it's time listening to a broad set of challenges by various states on yet unnamed issues.

[Kepler]

independent legislature theory goes down, but by a much closer margin than it should.

6-3, against Justice Pubic Hair, Justice Yacht Bribe, and Justice Handmaid? Or will Justice Beer Boy go for it too?

[unofan]

So one week to go, we've got these left:
Affirmative action in college admissions (likely Roberts, possibly Alito)
personal jurisdiction case (likely Kavanaugh)
1st amendment vs anti-discrimination laws (likely Gorsuch)
Independent legislature theory (likely Roberts if shot down, likely Alito if they buy into it)
student loan relief (likely Alito)
Trademark case (likely Sotomayor)
religious accommodation standards (likely Alito, possibly Kagan)
"True threat" standard (likely Kagan, possibly Alito).

My guesses:
Affirmative action is going bye bye.
Personal jurisdiction probably not required (pro business, anti states).
anti-discrimination laws - "artists" can discriminate, with some b.s. thrown in about how it won't apply to race but only other protected characteristics.
independent legislature theory goes down, but by a much closer margin than it should.
Student loan relief goes bye bye.
trademark case - Lannan act doesn't apply to purely foreign sales.
Religious accom - probably some clarification that is pro religion, but not a wholesale reversal of traditional standards
True threat - criminal law will stand.

[dxmnkd316]

Some other good banter from SCOTUSBlog:

--Hello all, just down from the courtroom. There was some buzz in the press section this morning as we arrived, Ginni Thomas was taking her seat in the VIP section.
--She was accompanied by someone that we thought was lawyer Mark Paoletta. Ann Marimow of the Washington Post looked across and said, Yes, that's him.
--No, Ginni is likely here because today is her husband's birthday. Justice Thomas is 75 years old today.
--Maria makes a good point that it is Justice Thomas's birthday today. I assume they will be going to Medieval Times tonight.

[dxmnkd316]

I got bored while eating lunch, so here's the rundown - Cases linked on title. Blue cases are "significant" according to SCOTUSBlog.

November - 3cases remaining:
Not Written Yet: Roberts, Thomas, Alito, and Kavanaugh
My guess: Thomas x2 killing AA. Alito gets Jones and Roberts gets Mallory
Comments: That doesn't look great for affirmative action. Both Harvard and UNC are in November term.

December - 2 cases remaining:
Not Written Yet: Roberts, Kagan, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh.
My Guess: Roberts, Alito, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh. Roberts gets Moore, Alito gets Texas, 303 and EHR go to Gorsuch and Kavanaugh.
Comments: Not great for Moore... Hopefully I'm wrong about the numbers and Kagan writes that (or roberts+libs+gorsuch/kav).....
US v. Texas- Whether state plaintiffs have Article III standing to challenge the DHS Guidelines for the Enforcement of Civil Immigration Law; Whether guidelines are contrary to other sections or violate administrative procedure act; whether 8 USC prevents entry of an order to "hold unlawful and set aside" guidelines in 5 USC.
303 Creative v Elenis - Whether applying a public-accommodation law to compel an artist to speak or stay silent violates the free speech clause of the First Amendment.
US v Executive Health Resources - Whether the government has authority to dismiss a False Claims Act suit after initially declining to proceed with the action, and what standard applies if the government has that authority.
Moore v. Harper - Whether a state's judicial branch may nullify the regulations governing the "Manner of holding Elections for Senators and Representatives ... prescribed ... by the Legislature thereof," and replace them with regulations of the state courts' own devising, based on vague state constitutional provisions purportedly vesting the state judiciary with power to prescribe whatever rules it deems appropriate to ensure a "fair" or "free" election.

February - 2 cases remaining:
Not Written Yet: Roberts, Alito, Kagan, Gorsuch, Barrett, and Jackson
My Guess: Roberts, Alito
Biden v. Nebraska - (1) Whether six states have Article III standing to challenge the Department of Education's student-debt relief plan; and (2) whether the plan exceeds the secretary of education's statutory authority or is arbitrary and capricious.)
Department of Education v. Brown - (1) Whether two student-loan borrowers have Article III standing to challenge the Department of Education's student-debt relief plan; and (2) whether the department's plan is statutorily authorized and was adopted in a procedurally proper manner.

March - 1 case remaining:
Not Written Yet: Thomas, Sotomayor, Kavanaugh, Barrett, and Jackson
My Guess: Roberts, Thomas, Sotomayor, Kavanaugh, Barrett, Jackson. But wouldn't be surprised if Gorsuch gets Arizona and one of the listed moves to a December case
Arizona v. Navajo Nation- This is related to Native American water rights.
Abitron Austria GmbH v. Hetronic International, Inc. - Whether the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 10th Circuit erred in applying the Lanham Act, which provides civil remedies for infringement of U.S. trademarks, extraterritorially to Abitron Austria GmbH's foreign sales, including purely foreign sales that never reached the United States or confused U.S. consumers.
Coinbase, Inc. v. Bielski - Whether a non-frivolous appeal of the denial of a motion to compel arbitration ousts a district court's jurisdiction to proceed with litigation pending appeal
United States v. Hansen - Whether the federal criminal prohibition against encouraging or inducing unlawful immigration for commercial advantage or private financial gain, in violation of 8 U.S.C. is facially unconstitutional on First Amendment overbreadth grounds.
Lora v. United States - Whether 18 U.S.C., which provides that "no term of imprisonment imposed... under this subsection shall run concurrently with any other term of imprisonment," is triggered when a defendant is convicted and sentenced under 18 U.S.C.
Samia v. United States - Whether admitting a codefendant's redacted out-of-court confession that immediately inculpates a defendant based on the surrounding context violates the defendant's rights under the confrontation clause of the Sixth Amendment.

April - 2 cases remaining:
Not Written Yet: Alito, Sotomayor, Kagan, Kavanaugh
Comments: Groff is a big one. I'd almost rather give up Groff if it means we have a better shot at Moore or the student loan cases.
My Guess: Alito, Sotomayor, Kagan, Kavanaugh. Just because it's the hardest kick in the pants, I wouldn't be surprised to see Alito get Groff.
Groff v. DeJoy - (How far employers must go to accommodate religious practices of their employees.) - Whether the court should disapprove the more-than-de-minimis-cost test for refusing religious accommodations under Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 stated in Trans World Airlines, Inc. v. Hardison; and (2) whether an employer may demonstrate "undue hardship on the conduct of the employer's business" under Title VII merely by showing that the requested accommodation burdens the employee's coworkers rather than the business itself.
Pugin v. Garland - To qualify as "an offense relating to obstruction of justice," 8 U.S.C. must a predicate offense require a nexus with a pending or ongoing investigation or judicial proceeding?
Counterman v. Colorado - Whether, to establish that a statement is a "true threat" unprotected by the First Amendment, the government must show that the speaker subjectively knew or intended the threatening nature of the statement, or whether it is enough to show that an objective "reasonable person" would regard the statement as a threat of violence.
Yegiazaryan v. Smagin - Whether a foreign plaintiff states a cognizable civil claim under the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act when it suffers an injury to intangible property, and if so, under what circumstances.

Update from 6/23

Estimated left:

Roberts	Alito	Thomas	Sotomayor	Gorsuch	Kagan	Barrett	Jackson	Kavanaugh
4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0	-1*

Everyone is +/- 1 here. Libs are more likely to be -1, cons more likely to be +1.
*Kav is -1 because it meant he got one additional unexpected case.


An even assignment would look like this for the remaining cases. One case assigned somewhere in the yellow block. One case assigned somewhere in the green.

	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.
Roberts		1	1		1
Thomas
Alito		1			1		1
Sotomayor						1
Kagan
Gorsuch			1
Kavanaugh
Barrett
Jackson

I'm also wondering if the two affirmative action cases (November) go to one justice and the two student loan cases (February) go to one justice. If that's the case, then Roberts or Alito will be writing them. Which would make sense. Then that would mean Whomever writes the AA opinions doesn't get the student loan opinions. Whomever gets the student loan opinons will also write Mallory, otherwise that justice would have three opinions in Nov (very unlikely). Since Mallory is a corporate case, that's a Roberts thing. So I'm guessing Roberts writes student loan opinons and Mallory. Alito kills affirmative action.

Curveball here is that Thomas has at least one more opinion to write. Since he's already written in every month now, it's a complete wildcard where he ends up. He might end up getting Groff. God help us all if if Moore was decided 5-4 with Roberts joining the libs. That means Thomas gets to pick who writes and we're all very f=cked.

Sotomayor has one more case and she hasn't written in March. Not a blockbuster case either...

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

None of the big decisions released today

[ticapnews]

Oh, and in Arizona v Navajo Nation, Gorsuch wrote a dissent worth reading. I'm convinced any case involving Native Americans is going to feature a Gorsuch opinion worth reading.

Edit: holy crap




This is also a great line


Good gravy

I think I saw this on that episode of the West Wing about Indians in the lobby. What was that called...

[dxmnkd316]

Oh, and in Arizona v Navajo Nation, Gorsuch wrote a dissent worth reading. I'm convinced any case involving Native Americans is going to feature a Gorsuch opinion worth reading.

Edit: holy crap

Yet even today, water remains a precious resource. "Members of the Navajo Nation use around 7 gallons of water per day for all of their household needs" - less than one-tenth the amount the average American household uses. Id., at 101.

This is also a great line

Reality never quite caught up to the law's ambitions.

Good gravy

Where do the Navajo go from here? To date, their efforts to find out what water rights the United States holds forthem have produced an experience familiar to any American who has spent time at the Department of Motor Vehicles. The Navajo have waited patiently for someone, anyone, to help them, only to be told (repeatedly) that they havebeen standing in the wrong line and must try another.

[dxmnkd316]

I got bored while eating lunch, so here's the rundown - Cases linked on title. Blue cases are "significant" according to SCOTUSBlog.

November - 3 cases remaining:
Not Written Yet: Roberts, Thomas, Alito, and Kavanaugh
My guess: Thomas x2 killing AA. Alito gets Jones and Roberts gets Mallory
Comments: That doesn't look great for affirmative action. Both Harvard and UNC are in November term.

December - 3 cases remaining:
Not Written Yet: Roberts, Kagan, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh.
My Guess: Roberts, Alito, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh. Roberts gets Moore, Alito gets TExas, 303 and EHR go to Gorsuch and Kavanaugh.
Comments: Not great for Moore... Hopefully I'm wrong about the numbers and Kagan writes that (or roberts+libs+gorsuch/kav).....
US v. Texas- Whether state plaintiffs have Article III standing to challenge the DHS Guidelines for the Enforcement of Civil Immigration Law; Whether guidelines are contrary to other sections or violate administrative procedure act; whether 8 USC prevents entry of an order to "hold unlawful and set aside" guidelines in 5 USC.
303 Creative v Elenis - Whether applying a public-accommodation law to compel an artist to speak or stay silent violates the free speech clause of the First Amendment.
US v Executive Health Resources - Whether the government has authority to dismiss a False Claims Act suit after initially declining to proceed with the action, and what standard applies if the government has that authority.
Moore v. Harper - Whether a state's judicial branch may nullify the regulations governing the "Manner of holding Elections for Senators and Representatives ... prescribed ... by the Legislature thereof," and replace them with regulations of the state courts' own devising, based on vague state constitutional provisions purportedly vesting the state judiciary with power to prescribe whatever rules it deems appropriate to ensure a "fair" or "free" election.

February - 2 cases remaining:
Not Written Yet: Roberts, Alito, Kagan, Gorsuch, Barrett, and Jackson
My Guess: Roberts + Alito
Biden v. Nebraska - (1) Whether six states have Article III standing to challenge the Department of Education's student-debt relief plan; and (2) whether the plan exceeds the secretary of education's statutory authority or is arbitrary and capricious.)
Department of Education v. Brown - (1) Whether two student-loan borrowers have Article III standing to challenge the Department of Education's student-debt relief plan; and (2) whether the department's plan is statutorily authorized and was adopted in a procedurally proper manner.

March - 4 cases remaining:
Not Written Yet: Thomas, Sotomayor, Kavanaugh, Barrett, and Jackson
My Guess: Roberts, Thomas, Sotomayor, Kavanaugh, Barrett, Jackson. But wouldn't be surprised if Gorsuch gets Arizona and one of the listed moves to a December case
Arizona v. Navajo Nation- This is related to Native American water rights.
Abitron Austria GmbH v. Hetronic International, Inc. - Whether the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 10th Circuit erred in applying the Lanham Act, which provides civil remedies for infringement of U.S. trademarks, extraterritorially to Abitron Austria GmbH's foreign sales, including purely foreign sales that never reached the United States or confused U.S. consumers.
Coinbase, Inc. v. Bielski - Whether a non-frivolous appeal of the denial of a motion to compel arbitration ousts a district court's jurisdiction to proceed with litigation pending appeal
United States v. Hansen - Whether the federal criminal prohibition against encouraging or inducing unlawful immigration for commercial advantage or private financial gain, in violation of 8 U.S.C. is facially unconstitutional on First Amendment overbreadth grounds.
Lora v. United States - Whether 18 U.S.C., which provides that "no term of imprisonment imposed... under this subsection shall run concurrently with any other term of imprisonment," is triggered when a defendant is convicted and sentenced under 18 U.S.C.
Samia v. United States - Whether admitting a codefendant's redacted out-of-court confession that immediately inculpates a defendant based on the surrounding context violates the defendant's rights under the confrontation clause of the Sixth Amendment.

April - 2 cases remaining:
Not Written Yet: Alito, Sotomayor, Kagan, and Kavanaugh
Comments: Groff is a big one. I'd almost rather give up Groff if it means we have a better shot at Moore or the student loan cases.
My Guess: Alito, Sotomayor, Kagan, Kavanaugh. Just because it's the hardest kick in the pants, I wouldn't be surprised to see Alito get Groff.
Groff v. DeJoy - (How far employers must go to accommodate religious practices of their employees.) - Whether the court should disapprove the more-than-de-minimis-cost test for refusing religious accommodations under Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 stated in Trans World Airlines, Inc. v. Hardison; and (2) whether an employer may demonstrate "undue hardship on the conduct of the employer's business" under Title VII merely by showing that the requested accommodation burdens the employee's coworkers rather than the business itself.
Pugin v. Garland - To qualify as "an offense relating to obstruction of justice," 8 U.S.C. must a predicate offense require a nexus with a pending or ongoing investigation or judicial proceeding?
Counterman v. Colorado - Whether, to establish that a statement is a "true threat" unprotected by the First Amendment, the government must show that the speaker subjectively knew or intended the threatening nature of the statement, or whether it is enough to show that an objective "reasonable person" would regard the statement as a threat of violence.
Yegiazaryan v. Smagin - Whether a foreign plaintiff states a cognizable civil claim under the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act when it suffers an injury to intangible property, and if so, under what circumstances.

Update from 6/22

Estimated left:

Roberts	Alito	Thomas	Sotomayor	Gorsuch	Kavanaugh	Barrett	Kagan	Jackson
4	4	2	1	1	1	1	0	0

Everyone is +/- 1 here. Libs are more likely to be -1, cons more likely to be +1.

Of note, there are two AA cases and Mallory remaining for November. ONly Roberts, Alito and Kavanaugh haven't written yet. Thomas still has an estimated minimum of two remaining for the entire OT22. He hasn't written in March and there are four cases remaining there. That might eat up one of his two unless he takes both AA cases. Which would be very unlikely as that would give him three cases in November. Either way, it's looking really bad.

An even assignment would look like this for the remaining cases. One case assigned somewhere in the yellow block. Two cases assigned somewhere in the green. And Kavanaugh gets one in November or December.

	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.
Roberts		1+?	1+?		1	?	?
Thomas		?	?			1+?	?
Alito		1+?	?		1	?	1+?
Sotomayor						1
Kagan
Gorsuch			1
Kavanaugh		Likely N or D
Barrett						1
Jackson

[LynahFan]

My employer of questionable ethics has a training video each year.

1) hard cap at $250, sometimes lower in certain situations,
2) has to be approved by a specialized team after receiving it and before use, or before giving,
3) and no gifts either to give or receive involving government officials at all.

My oft-fined employer shows greater ethical standards than a few (most?) of the SCOTUS justices.

Yeah, I was really only talking ethics, not law. My employer’s rule is that we can neither provide (to our government customers) nor accept (from suppliers) anything worth more than $5. That includes food at meetings, even if you are literally working through lunch. You should see my collections of pens and coffee mugs….

[Kepler]

There are very well defined ethical standards in my line of work. Thomas' behavior would be considered prima facie evidence of corruption.

If you are operating at an ethical level well below the defense contractor industry, you are not an honest person, and you should not be employed in any government or other public service capacity.

[St. Clown]

Apologize if this was already a discussion on here, but I think one of the better ethical guidelines on gifts is never to accept something as a gift that you couldn’t give as a gift. If a billionaire offers to pick up my tab at TGiFriday’s, no sweat - getcha back next time. But if a billionaire offers to fly me to Alaska on his private plane and take me fishing on (presumably) his private boat, I could never reciprocate, so that is out of bounds.

Even that breaks down a bit when you’re talking out billionaires buying influence with millionaires, though - plenty of Members would have the money to send a billionaire on that trip…..like they ever would.

My employer of questionable ethics has a training video each year.

1) hard cap at $250, sometimes lower in certain situations,
2) has to be approved by a specialized team after receiving it and before use, or before giving,
3) and no gifts either to give or receive involving government officials at all.

My oft-fined employer shows greater ethical standards than a few (most?) of the SCOTUS justices.