Covfefe-19 The 11th Part: Suck It Up And Die Grandpa I Need A Manicure!!

[Slap Shot]

Just cause people test positive doesn't mean they have to be hospitalized. Since most of the cases seem to be young people they most likely aren't in danger of dying.

No kidding, but are you arguing fewer at risk people are contracting Covid than were previously, or is it possible as Kep suggested the medical community is getting better at combating it once someone exhibits symptoms?

[jerphisch]

No kidding, but are you arguing fewer at risk people are contracting Covid than were previously, or is it possible as Kep suggested the medical community is getting better at combating it once someone exhibits symptoms?

I think the argument is that March to mid-April the only way to get a test in most places was if you were hospitalized, so the 25-30k positives were made up of people that were really sick, whereas now there is enough testing capacity that the 30k positives are made up of a much smaller percentage of very sick people. Had the testing capacity been in place earlier the confirmed cases number would probably have been MUCH higher.

[Handyman]

I think the argument is that March to mid-April the only way to get a test in most places was if you were hospitalized, so the 25-30k positives were made up of people that were really sick, whereas now there is enough testing capacity that the 30k positives are made up of a much smaller percentage of very sick people. Had the testing capacity been in place earlier the confirmed cases number would probably have been MUCH higher.

This. Before you needed to have symptoms to even get a test. (and even that didnt guarantee it) Now it is much easier to get tested. (although still not great)

To know if Kep is right we would need to know if the amount of time people are hospitalized has shortened.

[Handyman]

(not sure this was mentioned before)

Apparently it is getting so bad in Texas that the Texas Children's Hospital is admitting adult COVID patients because even their biggest medical facilities are almost to max capacity.

https://twitter.com/abc13houston/sta...97542889144322

[MinnesotaNorthStar]

(not sure this was mentioned before)

Apparently it is getting so bad in Texas that the Texas Children's Hospital is admitting adult COVID patients because even their biggest medical facilities are almost to max capacity.

https://twitter.com/abc13houston/sta...97542889144322

#AbbottBetrayedTexas is now trending here. He's trying to pass off the blame to others by saying guidelines aren't being followed. Wonder where he learned that.

[Drew S.]

So this is how we get travel booming?

https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinMKru...57971522408449

What I read last week is it was going to be a 50% credit so not a complete giveaway and that it was going to be strictly for domestic travel. From what I read the purpose was more to help tourism related businesses versus the folks getting the credit.

[alfablue]

I think the argument is that March to mid-April the only way to get a test in most places was if you were hospitalized, so the 25-30k positives were made up of people that were really sick, whereas now there is enough testing capacity that the 30k positives are made up of a much smaller percentage of very sick people. Had the testing capacity been in place earlier the confirmed cases number would probably have been MUCH higher.

That's possible.

Except for a few things.

First- the positive rate- for the previous 5 weeks, the positive testing rate was hovering in the 5% range. Last week, that has jumped to close to 10%- mirroring the rate of increase of cases. So more people are testing positive regardless of rate. Total tested per week has been around 200k (which seems low for how we are supposed to have progressed- shouldn't they be capable of 200k per day???).

Second- hospitalizations- that looked to be in the 3k/week range for the previous weeks, and then over the last two weeks, that's climbed to 4.3k.

That points to the conclusion that it's not just more testing, but more people are actually getting sick. I'm sure there are more indicators of this being a real problem- like the news reporting that hospitals are struggling...

This is directly from Florida Dept of Health's dashboard. Not from a news source.

[alfablue]

What I read last week is it was going to be a 50% credit so not a complete giveaway and that it was going to be strictly for domestic travel. From what I read the purpose was more to help tourism related businesses versus the folks getting the credit.

Just pay them all directly. Would be a lot safer.

[alfablue]

This. Before you needed to have symptoms to even get a test. (and even that didnt guarantee it) Now it is much easier to get tested. (although still not great)

To know if Kep is right we would need to know if the amount of time people are hospitalized has shortened.

Even IF treatments have gotten better, and more people are surviving, at some point, if left unchecked, that's going to end up being moot to the people who can't find space in very full hospitals.

[mookie1995]

Even IF treatments have gotten better, and more people are surviving, at some point, if left unchecked, that's going to end up being moot to the people who can't find space in very full hospitals.

Has there been documented instances to date of people being turned away due to no vacancy in any hospital?

[alfablue]

Has there been documented instances to date of people being turned away due to no vacancy in any hospital?

Not yet, but to think that there's not a limit on the healthcare system is interesting. You'll note that I didn't say it did happen, I'm saying that if left unchecked, seeing the current patterns, it's hard to not see that places will run out of space and resources to deal with everybody. This was a serious discussion in New York City a month ago.

[Bronco]

Has there been documented instances to date of people being turned away due to no vacancy in any hospital?

In Michigan I don't believe anyone was turned away. In April patients were moved from southeast Michigan to hospitals in other regions of Michigan due to capacity issues.

[Slap Shot]

I think the argument is that March to mid-April the only way to get a test in most places was if you were hospitalized, so the 25-30k positives were made up of people that were really sick, whereas now there is enough testing capacity that the 30k positives are made up of a much smaller percentage of very sick people. Had the testing capacity been in place earlier the confirmed cases number would probably have been MUCH higher.

Right but I'm not referring to that but the fact total deaths are dropping even weeks after many locales started re-opening to various degrees.

I have zero doubt many deaths that should be tied to covid are not being counted but enough to alone count for the drop? Are the elderly/more at-risk being better protected, are hospital and care workers better prepared and are there newer techniques to address it?

[mookie1995]

Not yet, but to think that there's not a limit on the healthcare system is interesting. You'll note that I didn't say it did happen, I'm saying that if left unchecked, seeing the current patterns, it's hard to not see that places will run out of space and resources to deal with everybody. This was a serious discussion in New York City a month ago.

oh, mookie agrees. capacity is real.

what mookie felt was the primary reason to keep people apart and wear a dam mask.

[rufus]

I think it's a great question but I'm not in any position to answer. I wonder if les or WW have some insight on that.

I'm thinking its a bit of both, along with maybe also at first, the very most vulnerable did get hit hard by the virus, and died as a result. The old people in nursing homes and such.

While there's still probably a good number of those still in the states where its on the rise, its not as many as in the big cities, and their population centers are less dense, slowing the rate it transfers a bit.

So in a lot of places, to sound like a Republican Dip****, the weakest of the herd have already been culled.