"JUST IN: Barr recommended Trump not grant Stone clemency: report http://hill.cm/WQzPz1y"
"It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
-aparch
"Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
-INCH
Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
-ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007
Also... After Hurricane Maria, the goddammed son of a b*tch wanted to sell Puerto Rico off as if it was a sh*tty casino in an effort to "better the bottom line," instead of, oh I don't know, HELPING THE GODDAMMED CITIZENS OF HIS OWN F*CKING COUNTRY.
One of the polling firms that had Trump winning in 2016 (can't remember the name or seem to find an article at the moment) found something along the lines of a "neighbor vote." aka more people are likely to say that their neighbor will vote for Trump than people who say they will vote for Trump. That same firm came out a couple weeks ago and said that neighbor vote is actually more pronounced now than it was in 2016.
Still, ten percent is a lot.
Go Green! Go White! Go State!
1966, 1986, 2007 Go Tigers, Go Packers, Go Red Wings, Go Pistons
One of the polling firms that had Trump winning in 2016 (can't remember the name or seem to find an article at the moment) found something along the lines of a "neighbor vote." aka more people are likely to say that their neighbor will vote for Trump than people who say they will vote for Trump. That same firm came out a couple weeks ago and said that neighbor vote is actually more pronounced now than it was in 2016.
Still, ten percent is a lot.
Most of the national polls in 2016 were correct. Hillary was going to win by 2 or 3 points. And she did. The state polls also showed that states like PA, MI and WI were close. They were. Most polls had her losing Ohio. She did. This time the polling is different. Biden is winning in all the states Clinton won in 2016 and in a number she lost he is up way beyond the margin of error. Pollsters learn from election to election. They rely less on exit polls on election day now. The most reliable polls ask about your likelihood of voting. Some pollsters are asking more non-college educated white men because they found them to be undercounted in 2016 in some states. And the biggy, there is no visceral dislike of Biden. Many are not thrilled with him, but I honestly have never been thrilled with a single candidate for president I have ever voted for. I was thrilled to vote for someone who didn't look like me in 2008 moreso than I was thrilled with Obama.
I think it is different in 2020. But of course that doesn't mean we should count our chickens. Keep reminding your family and friends to look into getting their absentee ballots. MAKE A PLAN AROUND YOUR VOTING AND ASK YOUR FRIENDS AND FAMILY TO DO THE SAME!
One of the polling firms that had Trump winning in 2016 (can't remember the name or seem to find an article at the moment) found something along the lines of a "neighbor vote." aka more people are likely to say that their neighbor will vote for Trump than people who say they will vote for Trump. That same firm came out a couple weeks ago and said that neighbor vote is actually more pronounced now than it was in 2016.
Still, ten percent is a lot.
Except that it doesnt seem likely Trump will actually add any voters to his vote total. We know with a pretty solid degree of certainty the range with which he will hit even in a loss. Hell the pollsters that are being derided werent even that far off in the first place. (I believe unofan has discussed this many times around here) Where Politico is getting it wrong isnt that the Trump voter is being ignored by the polls because they tend to stay silent. That may have been true going into 2016 but now we know they exist and maybe arent participating and can deal with that. Much like everything Politico does they water down the actual issue to the point that there is no actual meat on the bones. It assumes pollsters are making the exact same mistake that happened before, even though there is no evidence of that being true. Extrapolating one Rep's situation (which is hardly representative of other situations) is just ridiculous.
The other half of the equation is that no one was expecting the Dems to stay home in sufficient numbers (in particularly vulnerable spots) and never put that into their projections. They assumed larger participation and that just didnt happen. 2018 showed us what should have been the case. If Dems come out like they did in 2018 or even close to it the "silent Trumper" wont matter.
The point isnt who votes for him, the point is who votes for us. If we turn out he loses, if we dont then its all over but the shouting. The polls arent there to make predictions they are there to represent a specific moment in time. Their usefullness is more to show trends.
(I am not a pollster but the ones I follow and are respected absolutely do not ignore the "Silent Trumper" in fact they count on it)
"It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
-aparch
"Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
-INCH
Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
-ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007
Keep reminding your family and friends to look into getting their absentee ballots. MAKE A PLAN AROUND YOUR VOTING AND ASK YOUR FRIENDS AND FAMILY TO DO THE SAME!
Send everyone you know who is not most likely to vote R this and then keep after them.
1. Register
2. Confirm your registration, particularly in a state where the Nazis have any type of power against voter rolls
3. Request vote by mail
4. Check often you have not been f-cked over
The Nazis are playing for keeps. We are smarter but we also have to be faster, more tenacious, and stronger than they.
A section of border wall, organized by Trump supporters, fundraised by Trump supporters, build by a private contractor who is a Trump supporter, is now on the verge of collapsing into the Rio Grande.
Isn't Fisher the Repub donor with no real experience in major construction, or am I mistaken? I know they only got to build this wall because they so aggressively lobbied to do it.
What kind of cheese are you planning to put on top?
A section of border wall, organized by Trump supporters, fundraised by Trump supporters, build by a private contractor who is a Trump supporter, is now on the verge of collapsing into the Rio Grande.
RoverFrenchy, Classic! Great post. iwh30I wish I could be as smart as you. I really do you are the man gregg729I just saw your sig, you do love having people revel in your "intelligence." Ritt18you are the perfect representation of your alma mater. Miss ThundercatThat's it, you win. TBA#2I want to kill you and dance in your blood. DisplacedCornellianHahaha. Thread over. Frenchy wins.
It is pretty funny how arrogant Republicans are about the economy. They NOT ONLY are the only ones that can fix it in their minds but they're also the ones who get to break it.
**NOTE: The misleading post above was brought to you by Reynold's Wrap and American Steeples, makers of Crosses.
Originally Posted by dropthatpuck-Scooby's a lost cause.
Originally Posted by First Time, Long Time-Always knew you were nothing but a troll.
Pardons! Maybe Roger Stone, Michael Flynn, and 2016 campaign chair Paul Manafort, all confessed or convicted lawbreakers. Maybe Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who allegedly misused government resources, bypassed Congressional regulations to sell arms to Saudi Arabia, and then got the inspector general investigating it fired. Maybe Jared and Ivanka, Don Jr., and — sure why not — Eric. The pardon power is basically unlimited.
Except for this: can a president pardon himself? Lawyers are on various sides of that question, and it hasn’t been tested. Maybe we’ll find out.
Or maybe Trump will resign in January so Pence can pardon him.
If he gets spanked in November and has no hope of challenging/overturning the results, he will try to pardon himself and it will go to SCOTUS for a decision. Republicans and their voters will justify it by saying that if Hillary and Obama get to walk for their "crimes", so should Dump and his crew.
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