Originally posted by FadeToBlack&Gold
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Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?
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Cornell University
National Champion 1967, 1970
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Originally posted by Kepler View Post
I certainly was not accusing you of being a fellow traveler. My post was offered in the spirit of:
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538 looks at the battleground deltas over the last few weeks. tl; dr: Biden is getting stronger. So far at least we are not f-cking this up.
Note that the points in the quote below are odds of winning, not vote percentages. Odds vary directly with votes but amplify them: so for example if Biden leads a state by 55-45 in votes that is let's say 75-25 in odds.
But underneath the topline numbers, there has still been some fairly big movement in a handful of key battleground states, and the news has been mostly good for Biden. If we look at how much Biden’s odds have changed in states where both he and Trump have at least a 1 in 10 shot of winning since we launched the forecast on Aug. 12, Biden has improved his chances in 17 of 20 states. And in some cases, Biden’s improvement has been considerable — +15 percentage points in Minnesota, +12 points in Arizona and +10 points in Wisconsin, for instance. By comparison, Trump’s odds have really only improved in Florida, although he hasn’t lost much ground in states such as Georgia and Ohio, which may signal that Biden’s electoral gains will not be that expansive. (Trump still leads in Texas, for instance, despite Biden’s improvement there.)Last edited by Kepler; 09-16-2020, 03:06 PM.Cornell University
National Champion 1967, 1970
ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020
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Originally posted by Kepler View Post538 looks at the battleground deltas over the last few weeks. tl; dr: Biden is getting stronger. So far at least we are not f-cking this up.
Note that the points in the quote below are odds of winning, not vote percentages. Odds vary directly with votes but amplify them: so for example if Biden leads a state by 55-45 in votes that is let's say 75-25 in odds.
Cornell '04, Stanford '06
KDR
Rover Frenchy, Classic! Great post.
iwh30 I wish I could be as smart as you. I really do you are the man
gregg729 I just saw your sig, you do love having people revel in your "intelligence."
Ritt18 you are the perfect representation of your alma mater.
Miss Thundercat That's it, you win.
TBA#2 I want to kill you and dance in your blood.
DisplacedCornellian Hahaha. Thread over. Frenchy wins.
Test to see if I can add this.
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Originally posted by French Rage View Post
Is there anywhere there that shows the constituent polls? I can't find it with the new setup. I like his analysis numbers and all, but the raw polls would be good to see too.Cornell University
National Champion 1967, 1970
ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020
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Originally posted by Kepler View Post
While I agree with your statement, that story is DEMOCRATS IN DISARRAY!!!1!!1
I hafta write a story about an election where one guy is ahead 8-10 points. I have a deadline to make. What do I write to cut through the clutter? "Guy is still ahead 8-10 points"?
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Originally posted by Kepler View Post
FWIW I did not read dx as scolding you at all. I think he was just letting you know same as I was.
Although I actually am a scold, dx is a better person than I. Low bar.Code:As of 9/21/10: As of 9/13/10: College Hockey 6 College Football 0 BTHC 4 WCHA FC: 1
Originally posted by SanTropezMay your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.Originally posted by bigblue_dlI don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..Originally posted by KeplerWhen the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
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Originally posted by Kepler View Post
I think if you go to each poll you can dig down to the crosstabs. I don't think they aggregate that data because there would be too many apples vs oranges. Just imagine for instance trying generalize Rasmussen's ridiculous data sets with anybody else.Code:As of 9/21/10: As of 9/13/10: College Hockey 6 College Football 0 BTHC 4 WCHA FC: 1
Originally posted by SanTropezMay your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.Originally posted by bigblue_dlI don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..Originally posted by KeplerWhen the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
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Originally posted by Slap Shot View Post
I certainly wasn't trying to promote, "panic porn" but I would rather the DNC leave no stone left unturned.“Demolish the bridges behind you… then there is no choice but to build again.”
Live Radio from 100.3
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Dump campaign asks Judge to halt NJ early vote count. Because of course
http://hill.cm/q9lXuXv?fbclid=IwAR3B...KsjO3lHkerSA1U
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So...Dems in Dissaray!!1!??? ;-)"It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
-aparch
"Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
-INCH
Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
-ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007
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Can you guys help me come up with a response for two dear friends of mine? I posted that Obama video about voting on Facebook and one friend asked “why are people afraid to vote?” And another said “how is going to vote different from going to the supermarket?” I want to explain how we have it really good here but there are areas in the US where polling places are closed and lines are super long, etc. I remember this happened in Wisconsin in the spring - am I misremembering? Anyway, any examples you can provide would be helpful.
One of these friends literally lives a block from the school where she has to vote. She just doesn’t get how some people are being forced to travel miles and wait in line for hours in a pandemic to vote.
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Originally posted by Scarlet View PostCan you guys help me come up with a response for two dear friends of mine? I posted that Obama video about voting on Facebook and one friend asked “why are people afraid to vote?” And another said “how is going to vote different from going to the supermarket?” I want to explain how we have it really good here but there are areas in the US where polling places are closed and lines are super long, etc. I remember this happened in Wisconsin in the spring - am I misremembering? Anyway, any examples you can provide would be helpful.
One of these friends literally lives a block from the school where she has to vote. She just doesn’t get how some people are being forced to travel miles and wait in line for hours in a pandemic to vote.
Sworn Enemy of the Perpetually Offended
Montreal Expos Forever ...
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