Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

[Handyman]

Politico isn't automatically wrong about the existence of silent Trumpsters.

So it is your contention that between 2016 and now Trump gained voters? Because those would be the only true silent Trumpers. Every other Trumper voted last time so no pollster is really ignoring them anymore.

Politico took the one race in Michigan and tried to use it as sort of a metaphor for the entire country. That is dumb anyways but that districtis hardly the norm anyways so it is doubly stupid. It is Politico being lazy by attempting to make a wacky prediction months before the election.

[bronconick]

Politico isn't automatically wrong about the existence of silent Trumpsters.

You know of Trump supporters that are actually "silent" as opposed to "loud" or "boastful"? I don't in Michigan.

[Kepler]

You know of Trump supporters that are actually "silent" as opposed to "loud" or "boastful"? I don't in Michigan.

This was basically the conclusion. Racists and fascists no longer hide their opinions, they bellow them. We are not living in an age of more Nazism; just proud, public, blaring Nazism.

[burd]

You know of Trump supporters that are actually "silent" as opposed to "loud" or "boastful"? I don't in Michigan.

I think there are quite a few people who will take a dump inside the booth but are not very open about it outside the booth.

[Kepler]

I think there are quite a few people who will take a dump inside the booth but are not very open about it outside the booth.

Insofar as there any I think it is more than offset by the wives and daughters who vote straight D while publicly espousing R to keep from being hit.

[burd]

Insofar as there any I think it is more than offset by the wives and daughters who vote straight D while publicly espousing R to keep from being hit.

Awful thing to hope for, but . . . .

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

You know of Trump supporters that are actually "silent" as opposed to "loud" or "boastful"? I don't in Michigan.

I have a few Dumpies in my family who don't bother with lawn signs or bumperstickers, and don't go to any rallies, but will still vote for him because taxes are T3H SOC1AL1SM!1!1!!.

[Jimjamesak]

I have a few Dumpies in my family who don't bother with lawn signs or bumperstickers, and don't go to any rallies, but will still vote for him because taxes are T3H SOC1AL1SM!1!1!!.

Yeah, I know plenty of folks that, outwardly, you wouldn’t think of being Dumpies but peel back a few layers and it shows.

[unofan]

I think there are quite a few people who will take a dump inside the booth but are not very open about it outside the booth.

Just remember, for all the talk that the polls were wrong 4 years ago, they really weren't. They missed nationally by about 1 percent, and even the state misses weren't all that huge in the aggregate. The problem was the models taking the polls and trying to predict the race, and being way too confident that 1) a narrow but consistent lead would hold and 2) the misses would be independent events rather than correlated.

Tl;Dr, if there is a mass of silent Trump voters out there that the polls aren't picking up, they weren't present 4 years ago because the polls were generally good. Trump just filled his inside straight on the river.

[French Rage]

Just remember, for all the talk that the polls were wrong 4 years ago, they really weren't. They missed nationally by about 1 percent, and even the state misses weren't all that huge in the aggregate. The problem was the models taking the polls and trying to predict the race, and being way too confident that 1) a narrow but consistent lead would hold and 2) the misses would be independent events rather than correlated.

Tl;Dr, if there is a mass of silent Trump voters out there that the polls aren't picking up, they weren't present 4 years ago because the polls were generally good. Trump just filled his inside straight on the river.

This. 70% chance of winning is not in the big by any means, but everyone assumed it was in 2016. If your plane had a 70% chance of landing, you sure as **** wouldn't get on it.

[cF[Authentic]]

As a silent Trump voter in 2016 who has shifted significantly left, I don't see as many people in my situation now. I only voted for Trump because I was severely turned off by Hillary and the emails.

It's not working this time, especially for me, but also with friends who voted the same but haven't shifted as left as I.

[Handyman]

Just remember, for all the talk that the polls were wrong 4 years ago, they really weren't. They missed nationally by about 1 percent, and even the state misses weren't all that huge in the aggregate. The problem was the models taking the polls and trying to predict the race, and being way too confident that 1) a narrow but consistent lead would hold and 2) the misses would be independent events rather than correlated.

Tl;Dr, if there is a mass of silent Trump voters out there that the polls aren't picking up, they weren't present 4 years ago because the polls were generally good. Trump just filled his inside straight on the river.

I feel this needs to be stickied to the top of every thread on the election...

[Handyman]

https://twitter.com/PhilipRucker/sta...29123635310592

"The Ronald Reagan Foundation demands the Trump campaign quit using Reagan’s image and likeness in Trump’s reelection campaign"

[unofan]

This. 70% chance of winning is not in the big by any means, but everyone assumed it was in 2016. If your plane had a 70% chance of landing, you sure as **** wouldn't get on it.

The problem is Nate Silver was the only major prognosticator who even had it in the 70s, mainly because he was the only one who realized that state polls are not wholly independent and a miss in Michigan and a miss in Wisconsin would likely be in the same direction.

The Princeton guy had it at like 99% and was making fun of Silver for having it as low as he did. The rest of the major media all had it 90+%, which yes still isn't a lock but they were all treating it as such.

[Kepler]

FL via 538.

Other than GA and perhaps TX there is no state where Jim Crow 2: Nazi Booglaoo is artificially maintaining Republican control. A full Democratic wave in FL would mean blowing away the jury-rigged suppression apparatus the GOP has hastily assembled to thwart honest elections, and which stole them the Senate and Governor elections in 2018. The state Senate is 23-17 R, the House is 73-46 R. We need to flip 4 Senate and 14 House seats and secure the Governorship in order to restore democracy.

Now, this will be democracy for Florida Man, but it's a start anyway.