Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

[Kepler]

trump surely thinks this poll is fake news. Perhaps the fakiest news of all. I admit that if it is even close to an accurate gauge of our military's views I am shocked.
I keep saying it, but it really seems to me that if this election is conducted fairly and counted accurately, Biden might win as many EC votes as Bush won in 1988 and could certainly top Obama's 2008 haul. The only thing trump and the republicans can do to keep it closer than that is a lot of voter suppression in about 10 states. Look for it. Election day in 2020 is going to be the most chaotic one we've seen in anyone's lifetime.

Whoa:


Moral of the story: don't be Hillary.

[WeAreNDHockey]

Moral of the story: don't be Hillary.

Clinton suffered from a perfect storm of conditions that made her unelectable. She was a poor campaigner, got bad advice, the Clinton campaign "machine" was a myth, was up against an opponent who got 10 times the press coverage she got, was personally unlikable for a not insignificant portion of her party's base and was the victim of 20+ years of often untrue attacks on her character, her policies, her husband, even her daughter. It's obvious she was the worst possible candidate because she lost to trump.

[unofan]

Clinton suffered from a perfect storm of conditions that made her unelectable. She was a poor campaigner, got bad advice, the Clinton campaign "machine" was a myth, was up against an opponent who got 10 times the press coverage she got, was personally unlikable for a not insignificant portion of her party's base and was the victim of 20+ years of often untrue attacks on her character, her policies, her husband, even her daughter. It's obvious she was the worst possible candidate because she lost to trump.

Don't forget Comey's October surprise (butter emails), too.

[WeAreNDHockey]

Don't forget Comey's October surprise (butter emails), too.

That too. Plus her being dragged semi-conscious to a waiting van when she was overwhelmed by fatigue from fighting pneumonia. I don't know of a candidate who ran in an otherwise extremely winnable race who performed so badly and had so many things outside of her control go against her. And she STILL won by millions of votes in an election where there was evidence of democratic votes being suppressed.

[Handyman]

trump surely thinks this poll is fake news. Perhaps the fakiest news of all. I admit that if it is even close to an accurate gauge of our military's views I am shocked.
I keep saying it, but it really seems to me that if this election is conducted fairly and counted accurately, Biden might win as many EC votes as Bush won in 1988 and could certainly top Obama's 2008 haul. The only thing trump and the republicans can do to keep it closer than that is a lot of voter suppression in about 10 states. Look for it. Election day in 2020 is going to be the most chaotic one we've seen in anyone's lifetime.

Well the problem he has is that many of those states have sports teams that are going to allow polling at their arenas. (with athletes funding GOTV drives and I am guess funding rideshare programs as well) That makes it harder to suppress.

And I would totally believe the military would pick Biden over Trump. First of all his son served (unlike any Trump) and Biden was friends with McCain. Plus the Military doesn't like being used as a political tool especially when it makes them look bad. *cough*DC Protests*cough* Throw in a healthy dose of Trump telling everyone how stupid our commanders are and insulting gold star families and there ya go.

Then again Conservative twitter seems to believe Trump is polling in the 30% range with Blacks so it isnt like math or reasoning is their strong suit

[French Rage]

Well the problem he has is that many of those states have sports teams that are going to allow polling at their arenas. (with athletes funding GOTV drives and I am guess funding rideshare programs as well) That makes it harder to suppress.

And I would totally believe the military would pick Biden over Trump. First of all his son served (unlike any Trump) and Biden was friends with McCain. Plus the Military doesn't like being used as a political tool especially when it makes them look bad. *cough*DC Protests*cough* Throw in a healthy dose of Trump telling everyone how stupid our commanders are and insulting gold star families and there ya go.

Then again Conservative twitter seems to believe Trump is polling in the 30% range with Blacks so it isnt like math or reasoning is their strong suit

You would think it would be an easy pick for the military, given the Trump family's complete lack of any service and Trump's repeated disrespect for what the military means.

That said, my wife's grandfather was a 3-star general and his widow lives in a retirement village for high ranking Army vets and their widows in NoVa. Think colonels and up, the kind of people who would most easily see through Trump's BS. And she says she's definitely in the minority there being very opposed to Trump, which both surprises and saddens her. Granted this is a single anecdote.

[Slap Shot]

Don't shoot the messenger: Trump-Biden race tightens as both sides expect close contest

There are already signs that the race is tightening.

In Michigan, Biden’s average polling lead dropped from 8.4 percentage points on July 28 to 2.6 percent a month later, according to the average of polls kept by RealClearPolitics, while in Pennsylvania Biden’s average lead dipped from 7.4 points to 5.8 points during the same period.

In Wisconsin, Biden’s average polling lead stood at 6.4 points on July 28 and narrowed to 3.5 points on Aug. 26, according to RealClearPolitics.

Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are the three traditionally Democratic states that Trump won in 2016 to stun then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. He is likely to need wins in at least two of those states, if not all three, to win reelection.

Strategists say the tightening is a reflection of voters starting to look at the race more seriously and partisan allegiances kicking in.

“Given how polarized and closely balanced our country is, it only makes sense the polls would tighten somewhat,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster.

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Well the problem he has is that many of those states have sports teams that are going to allow polling at their arenas. (with athletes funding GOTV drives and I am guess funding rideshare programs as well) That makes it harder to suppress.

And I would totally believe the military would pick Biden over Trump. First of all his son served (unlike any Trump) and Biden was friends with McCain. Plus the Military doesn't like being used as a political tool especially when it makes them look bad. *cough*DC Protests*cough* Throw in a healthy dose of Trump telling everyone how stupid our commanders are and insulting gold star families and there ya go.

Then again Conservative twitter seems to believe Trump is polling in the 30% range with Blacks so it isnt like math or reasoning is their strong suit

Wait til the incels start patrolling outside our stadiums with their ARs to intimidate voters. I’m sure the cops will be handing out water and snacks

[Spartanforlife4]

It looks like RCP just uses a straight average calculation. And it’s only taking three polls into account. They don’t weight it at all like 538 does based on quantity, quality, or number of respondents.

538 also shows the race tightening, but it’s not as likely to be affected by an outlier.

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Must all be old, obese cops

https://mobile.twitter.com/_cingraha...94258248450049

[St. Clown]

You would think it would be an easy pick for the military, given the Trump family's complete lack of any service and Trump's repeated disrespect for what the military means.

That said, my wife's grandfather was a 3-star general and his widow lives in a retirement village for high ranking Army vets and their widows in NoVa. Think colonels and up, the kind of people who would most easily see through Trump's BS. And she says she's definitely in the minority there being very opposed to Trump, which both surprises and saddens her. Granted this is a single anecdote.

My brother and his wife are both retired vets. While my brother never voiced his vote, his wife is all in on the "Creepy Joe" line. Her brother's wife works for the Secret Service, and she said that Biden would, in my SIL's words "very inappropriately touch" the female agents. I was in no mood to get into it with her, not do I know the veracity of her statement. I just know that she was all Trump as of last week. Odd thing to me is that I'd always taken her as a fairly liberal person in the military.

Again, just an anecdote.

[Scarlet]

This guy is really good at this:

https://twitter.com/gregmlarsen/stat...iekcNsonywOwBI

Sounds just like folks talking about their blind devotion to Trump.

[Handyman]

It looks like RCP just uses a straight average calculation. And it’s only taking three polls into account. They don’t weight it at all like 538 does based on quantity, quality, or number of respondents.

538 also shows the race tightening, but it’s not as likely to be affected by an outlier.

RCP has fallen out of favor for that reason...they let the outliers swing the numbers. They have their reasons I am sure.

The race tightening after the RNC is about as predictable as the "Minnesota Will Go Red" article we will see in a month. Gallup Had McCain in the Lead after the 2008 Convention in Saint Paul. Gallup wasnt alone...the race was thought to be quite tight after convention season with the Times, Politico and others giving McCain a solid chance to win.

I am not saying the race hasnt tightened...I am saying we wont know for sure for a couple weeks as we get away from the Convention Bubble. Biden should not like seeing his numbers dip but I would assume most of the pollsters working for him expected it. The fact that Trump didnt take the lead or at least make it a statistical tie (which he can still do cause the bubble should last a bit and more polls will come out) is probably disappointing to his pollsters. Much like he never got the Pandemic Bounce he was supposed to it would seem his RNC didnt quite sway the voters. He definitely juiced up his crowd though.

As for the military...the nice thing is Biden doesn't need to get a majority, he just needs to do better than Hillary did. If he can hold somewhere between 30-40% that is a net win even though El Hefty had more support overall.

[Handyman]

Must all be old, obese cops

https://mobile.twitter.com/_cingraha...94258248450049

I saw that the other day. From now on whenever I hear the "more likely to die from lightning" COVID excuse I will say (as I mentioned in another thread last week) "cops are more likely to die of COVID or struck my lightning than be killed by a criminal in the LOD. Time to start using their logic against them :-)

[Handyman]

This guy is really good at this:

https://twitter.com/gregmlarsen/stat...iekcNsonywOwBI

Sounds just like folks talking about their blind devotion to Trump.

Some of those are brilliant! The John Wayne Gacy one in particular!

Great now the left is trying to besmirch a man who literally worked at CHILDREN'S HOSPITALS helping to cheer up sick kids by being a clown! Is there any low that the left won't sink to, attacking a children's entertainer? It's just sad.

Osama Bin Laden:

- Didn't blow up anything personally - Wasn't even in america when 9/11 happened - Killed before he could stand trial (convenient) - Hated big government Yep, sounds like another victim of the "tolerant left"

Jack the Ripper

Criticize him all you want, but in a way he was good for the economy. Books, films, tourism, a whole genre of entertainment sprung up around him. Think of how many lives he has saved an enriched by helping the British economy. Facts don't care about your feelings.

Leopold II of Belgium

Big fan of rubber which is recyclable. Created jobs, industry, loved family values so much that he even let young children work alongside their parents. Sure some people died but everyone dies eventually. but how many more would have died if crooked Hillary had been in charge?

Bowser (Mario Brothers)

Ask yourself what Mario is doing that Bowser needs to take the princess away? We've only ever heard one side of it in the MSM but it looks to me like Bowser is doing everything he can to protect princess peach from two vicious brothers who are nothing more than antifa thugs.

Emperor Palpatine

When a leftist opposes law and order you have to wonder their motivations. Seems to me the Empire brought peace to the galaxy and it was radical leftist terrorists that were destroying that peace. Why? Because they were sad that the government wasn't giving them handouts?

I could read these all day!