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Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

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  • Originally posted by Kepler View Post
    Obsessing over the Veep and fault finding with whoever is chosen is falling into a trap. To quote an esteemed peer, it's the "Tiger Beat on the Potomac" gimmick of political gossip just to roil the waters and have something to kvetch about.

    It's inventing agita for its own sake.

    Any of the finalists are fine choices. Whichever of the cheerleaders you go home with, be happy.
    Except Karen Bass. Pro Castro and Scientology is no.
    "I went over the facts in my head, and admired how much uglier the situation had just become. Over the years I've learned that ignorance is more than just bliss. It's freaking orgasmic ecstasy".- Harry Dresden, Blood Rites


    Western Michigan Bronco Hockey- 2012 Mason Cup Champions

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Kepler View Post

      Yes, Harris is TERRIBLE choice for a Republican running mate.

      A black woman is going to be toxic with racists and misogynists. We are going to lose the conservative vote. Gee whiz.
      She ran in the Democratic primary.

      I'm not saying this is a mean way, but I'm not sure I have ever not understood one of your takes more than this. Do you know something about Rice and that is the reason?
      Originally posted by BobbyBrady
      Crosby probably wouldn't even be on BC's top two lines next year

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Drew S. View Post

        She ran in the Democratic primary.

        I'm not saying this is a mean way, but I'm not sure I have ever not understood one of your takes more than this. Do you know something about Rice and that is the reason?
        No, I think Rice is great. But every politician is an opportunist. Obama, who I think it the best thing to happen to American politics since MLK, is a fierce opportunist. Just imagine the ego and the drive and the unhealthy psychology of somebody willing to take that job. In all honesty, nobody with a mentality within normal bounds would tolerate it. It's like being America's garbage man.
        Cornell University
        National Champion 1967, 1970
        ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
        Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

        Comment


        • Originally posted by bronconick View Post

          Except Karen Bass. Pro Castro and Scientology is no.
          Castro is redundant in that sentence.

          No Scientologists.
          Last edited by Kepler; 08-03-2020, 09:07 AM.
          Cornell University
          National Champion 1967, 1970
          ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
          Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

          Comment


          • Not-So-Breitbart claiming Dems are playing 'war games' and planning for the threat of a west coast secession in the event the election results are contested. :-D

            Comment


            • https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...50416278532096

              "In an illegal late night coup, Nevada’s clubhouse Governor made it impossible for Republicans to win the state. Post Office could never handle the Traffic of Mail-In Votes without preparation. Using Covid to steal the state. See you in Court!"

              Yeah...Republicans cant win if people vote!
              "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
              -aparch

              "Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
              -INCH

              Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
              -ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007

              Comment


              • https://twitter.com/AP/status/1290338790654042112

                "BREAKING: New York prosecutor seeking President Trump's tax returns cites reports of 'protracted criminal conduct' at the Trump Organization."

                Manhattan prosecutor trying to get President Donald Trump’s tax returns told a judge Monday that he was justified in demanding them, citing public reports of “extensive and protracted criminal conduct at the Trump Organization.”

                Trump’s lawyers last month said the grand jury subpoena for the tax returns was issued in bad faith and amounted to harassment of the president.

                Manhattan District Attorney District Attorney Cyrus R. Vance, Jr. is seeking eight years of the Republican president’s personal and corporate tax records, but has disclosed little about what prompted him to request the records, other than part of the investigation is related to payoffs made to women to keep them quiet about alleged affairs with Trump.

                In a court filing Monday, though, attorneys for Vance said Trump’s arguments that the subpoena was too broad stemmed from “the false premise” that the probe was limited to so-called “hush-money” payments.
                "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
                -aparch

                "Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
                -INCH

                Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
                -ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007

                Comment



                • @MediumBuying
                  The Trump campaign has placed a Fox News-only buy in DC cable zones. 8/3-8/16 flight, $38K total

                  Hahahaha. Got to make their toddler happy
                  "I went over the facts in my head, and admired how much uglier the situation had just become. Over the years I've learned that ignorance is more than just bliss. It's freaking orgasmic ecstasy".- Harry Dresden, Blood Rites


                  Western Michigan Bronco Hockey- 2012 Mason Cup Champions

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by bronconick View Post

                    Except Karen Bass. Pro Castro and Scientology is no.
                    Also I didn't realize she's 66 years old and has never faced the scrutiny of a national campaign. A 77 year old and a 66 year old ticket doesn't feel right.

                    Biden doesn't need a Hail Mary. A safe pick like Harris will do the trick. I'd prefer Abrams as VP but I would have preferred Warren as the nominee as well. No worries as I'm happy to support Biden and whoever he chooses. Harris is probably best suited to step right in given her background as senator and AG of California.
                    Legally drunk???? If its "legal", what's the ------- problem?!? - George Carlin

                    Ever notice how everybody who drives slower than you is an idiot, and everybody who drives faster is a maniac? - George Carlin

                    "I've never seen so much reason and bullsh*t contained in ONE MAN."

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by bronconick View Post

                      Except Karen Bass...Scientology.
                      wut
                      Code:
                      As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
                      College Hockey 6       College Football 0
                      BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                      Originally posted by SanTropez
                      May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                      Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                      I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                      Originally posted by Kepler
                      When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                      He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                      Comment


                      • 538.com shows Biden with a tiny lead in Texas and has now for the last week or so. What were the polls like for Clinton in Texas 3 months before the 2016 election? Now I do not believe Biden will win in Texas. Instead I believe it will be ground zero for republican attempts to suppress the vote. But if the polls are that tight there 90 days before the election, that tells me that if we were not a third world when it comes to our elections Biden would probably win at least 35 states and at least 448 EC votes.

                        Not only can trump not win a fair election, he couldn't even be competitive in a fair election. it will take an unprecedented amount of voter suppression to keep Biden anywhere near 300 EC votes.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by WeAreNDHockey View Post
                          538.com shows Biden with a tiny lead in Texas and has now for the last week or so. What were the polls like for Clinton in Texas 3 months before the 2016 election? Now I do not believe Biden will win in Texas. Instead I believe it will be ground zero for republican attempts to suppress the vote. But if the polls are that tight there 90 days before the election, that tells me that if we were not a third world when it comes to our elections Biden would probably win at least 35 states and at least 448 EC votes.

                          Not only can trump not win a fair election, he couldn't even be competitive in a fair election. it will take an unprecedented amount of voter suppression to keep Biden anywhere near 300 EC votes.
                          https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/
                          Code:
                          As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
                          College Hockey 6       College Football 0
                          BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                          Originally posted by SanTropez
                          May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                          Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                          I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                          Originally posted by Kepler
                          When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                          He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                          Comment


                          • Yeah, but 1) Hillary never had a lead as big as Biden currently has, and 2) Trump filled his inside straight on the river. Shiat happens.

                            Could he do it again? Sure, but it's even less likelier today than it was 4 years ago.

                            Comment


                            • I was curious about incumbents losing, some interesting numbers jumped out:
                              1. It's happened ten times
                              2. In the most recent four (Bush 92, Carter 80, Hoover 1932, Taft 1912), the incumbent lost an astonishing 248 or more EVs.
                                1. Bush: 426->168 = 60.6% loss
                                2. Carter: 297->49 = 83.5% loss
                                3. Ford: N/A
                                4. Hoover: 444->59 = 86.7% loss
                                5. Taft: 321->8 = 97.5% loss
                                6. Harrison (1892): 233->145 = 37.8% loss
                                7. Cleveland (1888): 219->168 = 23.3% loss
                                  1. Cleveland & Harrison were funny because it was incumbent Cleveland who lost to Harrison in 1888 and incumbent Harrison who lost to Cleveland in 1892. Bizarre.
                                8. Van Buren (1840): 170->60 = 64.7% loss
                                9. John Quincy Adams (1828): 84->89*
                                  1. He didn't actually win the EC in 1824, he was one of four >30.
                                10. John Adams (1800): 71->65 = 8% loss
                              3. Presidents that won less than 56.5% of the EV went 2*-2 (Bush*, Nixon & Cleveland, Carter)
                              I find it fairly amazing that a president who won 84% of the EC could lose 87% of those votes. It's also incredible to me that the swing has been as substantial as it was in five of those. For Trump to hit the same level levels of rebuke, he'd need to lose Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Texas, North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine (2),Nebraska (1), Montana to even get to HW's losses.

                              Popular vote:
                              1. Bush: 7M margin ->5.8M loss = 12.88M swing = 12.4% of turnout
                              2. Carter: 1.7M -> 8.4M = 10.1M = 11.7%
                              3. Ford: N/A
                              4. Hoover: 6.4M -> 7.1M = 13.5M = 34%!!!
                              5. Taft: 1.3M -> 2.2M = 3.4M = 22.9%
                              6. Harrison (1892): -91k* -> 363k
                              7. Cleveland (1888): 58k -> -91k*
                              8. Van Buren (1840): 213k -> 146k = 359k = 14.9%
                              9. John Quincy Adams (1828): -38k* ->141k

                              If 9-15% margin swing are typical, we're looking at 14.4M - 22.1M margin. Turnout wasn't really a factor in most. So call it 71.5 million to 57.1 million just to get to that 14.4M margin. That would be the largest vote total every by a significant margin (2M) and the lowest since 2000 (not adjusted)

                              I don't see either the EC or popular vote swing we would typically see in an incumbent losing. Interesting though.
                              Code:
                              As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
                              College Hockey 6       College Football 0
                              BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                              Originally posted by SanTropez
                              May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                              Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                              I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                              Originally posted by Kepler
                              When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                              He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by unofan View Post

                                Yeah, but 1) Hillary never had a lead as big as Biden currently has, and 2) Trump filled his inside straight on the river. Shiat happens.

                                Could he do it again? Sure, but it's even less likelier today than it was 4 years ago.
                                Don't disagree, in fact, we're both saying the same thing. I just wanted to post the resource he was looking for.
                                Code:
                                As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
                                College Hockey 6       College Football 0
                                BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                                Originally posted by SanTropez
                                May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                                Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                                I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                                Originally posted by Kepler
                                When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                                He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                                Comment

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