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Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

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  • Originally posted by FadeToBlack&Gold View Post
    Politico isn't automatically wrong about the existence of silent Trumpsters.
    So it is your contention that between 2016 and now Trump gained voters? Because those would be the only true silent Trumpers. Every other Trumper voted last time so no pollster is really ignoring them anymore.

    Politico took the one race in Michigan and tried to use it as sort of a metaphor for the entire country. That is dumb anyways but that districtis hardly the norm anyways so it is doubly stupid. It is Politico being lazy by attempting to make a wacky prediction months before the election.
    "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
    -aparch

    "Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
    -INCH

    Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
    -ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007

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    • Originally posted by FadeToBlack&Gold View Post
      Politico isn't automatically wrong about the existence of silent Trumpsters.
      You know of Trump supporters that are actually "silent" as opposed to "loud" or "boastful"? I don't in Michigan.
      "I went over the facts in my head, and admired how much uglier the situation had just become. Over the years I've learned that ignorance is more than just bliss. It's freaking orgasmic ecstasy".- Harry Dresden, Blood Rites


      Western Michigan Bronco Hockey- 2012 Mason Cup Champions

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      • Originally posted by bronconick View Post

        You know of Trump supporters that are actually "silent" as opposed to "loud" or "boastful"? I don't in Michigan.
        This was basically the conclusion. Racists and fascists no longer hide their opinions, they bellow them. We are not living in an age of more Nazism; just proud, public, blaring Nazism.
        Cornell University
        National Champion 1967, 1970
        ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
        Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

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        • Originally posted by bronconick View Post

          You know of Trump supporters that are actually "silent" as opposed to "loud" or "boastful"? I don't in Michigan.
          I think there are quite a few people who will take a dump inside the booth but are not very open about it outside the booth.

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          • Originally posted by burd View Post

            I think there are quite a few people who will take a dump inside the booth but are not very open about it outside the booth.
            Insofar as there any I think it is more than offset by the wives and daughters who vote straight D while publicly espousing R to keep from being hit.
            Cornell University
            National Champion 1967, 1970
            ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
            Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

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            • Originally posted by Kepler View Post

              Insofar as there any I think it is more than offset by the wives and daughters who vote straight D while publicly espousing R to keep from being hit.
              Awful thing to hope for, but . . . .

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              • Originally posted by bronconick View Post

                You know of Trump supporters that are actually "silent" as opposed to "loud" or "boastful"? I don't in Michigan.
                I have a few Dumpies in my family who don't bother with lawn signs or bumperstickers, and don't go to any rallies, but will still vote for him because taxes are T3H SOC1AL1SM!1!1!!.

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                • Originally posted by FadeToBlack&Gold View Post

                  I have a few Dumpies in my family who don't bother with lawn signs or bumperstickers, and don't go to any rallies, but will still vote for him because taxes are T3H SOC1AL1SM!1!1!!.
                  Yeah, I know plenty of folks that, outwardly, you wouldn’t think of being Dumpies but peel back a few layers and it shows.
                  U-A-A!!!Go!Go!GreenandGold!
                  Applejack Tells You How UAA Is Doing...
                  I spell Failure with UAF

                  Originally posted by UAFIceAngel
                  But let's be real...There are 40 some other teams and only two alaskan teams...the day one of us wins something big will be the day I transfer to UAA
                  Originally posted by Doyle Woody
                  Best sign by a visting Seawolf fan Friday went to a young man who held up a piece of white poster board that read: "YOU CAN'T SPELL FAILURE WITHOUT UAF."

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                  • Originally posted by burd View Post

                    I think there are quite a few people who will take a dump inside the booth but are not very open about it outside the booth.
                    Just remember, for all the talk that the polls were wrong 4 years ago, they really weren't. They missed nationally by about 1 percent, and even the state misses weren't all that huge in the aggregate. The problem was the models taking the polls and trying to predict the race, and being way too confident that 1) a narrow but consistent lead would hold and 2) the misses would be independent events rather than correlated.

                    Tl;Dr, if there is a mass of silent Trump voters out there that the polls aren't picking up, they weren't present 4 years ago because the polls were generally good. Trump just filled his inside straight on the river.

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                    • Originally posted by unofan View Post

                      Just remember, for all the talk that the polls were wrong 4 years ago, they really weren't. They missed nationally by about 1 percent, and even the state misses weren't all that huge in the aggregate. The problem was the models taking the polls and trying to predict the race, and being way too confident that 1) a narrow but consistent lead would hold and 2) the misses would be independent events rather than correlated.

                      Tl;Dr, if there is a mass of silent Trump voters out there that the polls aren't picking up, they weren't present 4 years ago because the polls were generally good. Trump just filled his inside straight on the river.
                      This. 70% chance of winning is not in the big by any means, but everyone assumed it was in 2016. If your plane had a 70% chance of landing, you sure as **** wouldn't get on it.

                      Cornell '04, Stanford '06


                      KDR

                      Rover Frenchy, Classic! Great post.
                      iwh30 I wish I could be as smart as you. I really do you are the man
                      gregg729 I just saw your sig, you do love having people revel in your "intelligence."
                      Ritt18 you are the perfect representation of your alma mater.
                      Miss Thundercat That's it, you win.
                      TBA#2 I want to kill you and dance in your blood.
                      DisplacedCornellian Hahaha. Thread over. Frenchy wins.

                      Test to see if I can add this.

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                      • As a silent Trump voter in 2016 who has shifted significantly left, I don't see as many people in my situation now. I only voted for Trump because I was severely turned off by Hillary and the emails.

                        It's not working this time, especially for me, but also with friends who voted the same but haven't shifted as left as I.

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                        • Originally posted by unofan View Post

                          Just remember, for all the talk that the polls were wrong 4 years ago, they really weren't. They missed nationally by about 1 percent, and even the state misses weren't all that huge in the aggregate. The problem was the models taking the polls and trying to predict the race, and being way too confident that 1) a narrow but consistent lead would hold and 2) the misses would be independent events rather than correlated.

                          Tl;Dr, if there is a mass of silent Trump voters out there that the polls aren't picking up, they weren't present 4 years ago because the polls were generally good. Trump just filled his inside straight on the river.
                          I feel this needs to be stickied to the top of every thread on the election...
                          "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
                          -aparch

                          "Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
                          -INCH

                          Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
                          -ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007

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                          • https://twitter.com/PhilipRucker/sta...29123635310592

                            "The Ronald Reagan Foundation demands the Trump campaign quit using Reagan’s image and likeness in Trump’s reelection campaign"
                            "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
                            -aparch

                            "Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
                            -INCH

                            Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
                            -ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by French Rage View Post

                              This. 70% chance of winning is not in the big by any means, but everyone assumed it was in 2016. If your plane had a 70% chance of landing, you sure as **** wouldn't get on it.
                              The problem is Nate Silver was the only major prognosticator who even had it in the 70s, mainly because he was the only one who realized that state polls are not wholly independent and a miss in Michigan and a miss in Wisconsin would likely be in the same direction.

                              The Princeton guy had it at like 99% and was making fun of Silver for having it as low as he did. The rest of the major media all had it 90+%, which yes still isn't a lock but they were all treating it as such.

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                              • FL via 538.

                                Other than GA and perhaps TX there is no state where Jim Crow 2: Nazi Booglaoo is artificially maintaining Republican control. A full Democratic wave in FL would mean blowing away the jury-rigged suppression apparatus the GOP has hastily assembled to thwart honest elections, and which stole them the Senate and Governor elections in 2018. The state Senate is 23-17 R, the House is 73-46 R. We need to flip 4 Senate and 14 House seats and secure the Governorship in order to restore democracy.

                                Now, this will be democracy for Florida Man, but it's a start anyway.
                                Last edited by Kepler; 07-27-2020, 09:44 AM.
                                Cornell University
                                National Champion 1967, 1970
                                ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                                Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

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