Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

[Handyman]

CBS says Minnesota leaning Biden.

CBS has Trump needing 55% of the outstanding vote in NC to catch Biden...

Texas is a toss up but they seem to think Trump will take it on the in person vote.

[Handyman]

WCCO says exit polling (I think in Minnesota but maybe the Midwest) says Biden was winning amongst people who didn't vote last election and White Working Class people.

[insert comment about exit polls here]

[French Rage]

CBS has Biden way ahead in OH and I think the Post does as well...

ABC said what sounded like good stuff too. A healthy early vote lead, and some western counties that went close for Trump last time have Biden leading now.

(Of course all of this "now" stuff never says if in takes into account how much of "now" is early versus today votes.)

[Handyman]

WCCO (CBS in Minnesota) is showing Ellsworth, WI and there is a massive line and like an hour wait to vote.

[French Rage]

Rocky Dennis is a senator from ND?

[Handyman]

CBS has Biden way ahead in OH and I think the Post does as well...

[rufus]

Pardon my ignorance but what is he suggesting?

That instead of a closing spent ranting about conspiracies and revenge grievances, the Trump campaign should have been organizing a better get out the vote effort.

[Handyman]

My wife says thanks for keeping me from chugging all of our hard liquor

Yep my bottle is ready to go...

CNN had Biden with over 50% right now with 62% in in TX. I know it likely doesnt hold but yikes...

[French Rage]

Remember Fulton County GA (i.e. Atlanta) is running late on processing ballots due to a water pipe burst earlier today (no ballots were harmed). Could result in a blue shift at the very end....

Followup: ABC says 200K absentee ballots in GA arrived today, which will take longer to process.

[French Rage]

The screen of code scrolling by in the background of the ABC telecast is annoying.

[dxmnkd316]

While FL going the other way is never good, FL is very different than other states, so it is possible FL could break more from models than OH/PA/MI/WI/etc. We'll have to see.

For example, from the 538 blog:

My wife says thanks for keeping me from chugging all of our hard liquor

[WeAreNDHockey]

someone brought up that this is similar to 2018. theft in ga and fl then the wave hit everywhere else...

fyp.

[Jimjamesak]

Someone brought up that this is similar to 2018. Close loses in GA and FL then the wave hit everywhere else...

Yeah, I’m getting that sense.

The suburban numbers in Texas are an interesting sign.

[MinnesotaNorthStar]

Someone brought up that this is similar to 2018. Close loses in GA and FL then the wave hit everywhere else...

[French Rage]

Botecofer


The calling of VA w/o any song & dance tells me that the *** beating Biden delivered Trump here must be profound.




This means that the *** beating Trump is taking tonight among college-educated voters/college edu whites must be severe as VA is 6th in the nation in college grads

While FL going the other way is never good, FL is very different than other states, so it is possible FL could break more from models than OH/PA/MI/WI/etc. We'll have to see.

For example, from the 538 blog:

With 80 percent reported, Biden is up 17 points so far in Johnson County, Kansas, a well-off suburban county to the west of Kansas City. Clinton lost it by 3 points in 2016. That would be a positive sign for Biden, since it might imply a strong performance in other Midwestern suburbs — although again, it’s hard to make too much of things unless we know the mix of early vs. Election Day votes and unless our prior reporting said to expect a red shift in Kansas.