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Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

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  • Originally posted by bronconick View Post
    One candidate has a 9 point national lead, and we are all sweating the results. If this were happening in any other country, we'd call it a failed state.
    True. That's how pathetic and sad we are. And the fact we have one of our two parties who thinks this is perfectly fine and normal makes it worse.
    **NOTE: The misleading post above was brought to you by Reynold's Wrap and American Steeples, makers of Crosses.

    Originally Posted by dropthatpuck-Scooby's a lost cause.
    Originally Posted by First Time, Long Time-Always knew you were nothing but a troll.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by WeAreNDHockey View Post

      WI is the only state in the country where more people voted for Democrats in the 2018 midterms that has a majority republican congressional delegation. As bad as that is, I don't believe the state is gerrymandered as bad as Ohio. At least not as far as the U.S. House districts go. Perhaps the State Assembly or Senate are as shamefully bad. But Ohio's goes beyond any bounds of fairness or reasonableness.

      Ohio at least passed a redistricting law in 2018 that will go as far as any state in addressing gerrymandering I believe. Politicians will draw the districts and you will have to get support from both parties, including half the minority party. I think this is the best method for drawing the lines. There are also fail-safes in place in case new lines can't be agreed upon. If the politicians can't agree a 7 member bi-partisan commission will draw the lines, and that map will have to get the support of at least 2 of the minority party. If that fails, the legislature can try again and if they can't get at least 1/3rd of the minority party to support the plan, it can only last 4 years, where it will certainly be an election year issue.

      This plan has the potential to really alter the makeup of political districts in Ohio and potentially make them fair. Voters would be able to select their representatives than politicians picking their voters. This was a political issue I gladly worked on while I was a leg breaking Union Thug in Ohio.
      Ohio's two most gerrymandered districts:
      4th: Gym Jordan, 'nuf said other than my herp-a-derp cousins, an aunt, and an uncle are residents of The Fightin' Fourth! and proudly throw their votes Gym's way every two years.
      9th: Marcy Kaptur, Toledo's longtime Congresswoman whose district now traverses the Lake Erie shoreline all the way to Cuyahoga County (Cleveland). She also represents the fine folks on Put-in-Bay.

      https://www.cleveland.com/resizer/9V...RNKVB57MGI.png

      Comment


      • Originally posted by FadeToBlack&Gold View Post

        By this time next week, we should have a pretty good feeling for whether or not the Republicans and their judicial/plute/foreign supporters have succeeded in lying, cheating, and stealing their way to a fraudulent victory.
        I don't know how widespread this belief is and I hate to be one thinking it, but if trump wins in any way, whether that is by "counting" the votes, or being declared the winner by courts, I won't believe for a minute he got it by anything other than outright fraud and stealing.

        There may well have been shenanigans beyond voter suppression last time around, but this time? No way am I buying for a minute more people in the right states are going to vote for him.

        The polling organizations that are getting the A+ and A and B+ ratings from 538.com are highly competent at what they do and spent a lot of time and effort shoring up the weakest points in their methodology after a 2016 election that really didn't see them doing a bad job. I believe the polls accurately reflect what people have been doing and will do up to and including November 3rd. Are one or two of them wrong? You betcha. But the odds of them only being wrong in trump's favor instead of say, calling for a 21.8 point win in Connecticutt that turns out to be a 22.6 point win are too long to worry me.

        What worries me is republicans stealing an election. I don't necessarily think that it will happen, but if trump "wins" I believe that is what will have happened. I also think that more people that republicans can possibly imagine are going to believe that too, and it ain't gonna be pretty. I've been saying since 2015 that trump was and is an existential threat to the survival of this country. I believe it even more today and if he is president beyond January 20, 2021, I doubt this country survives his second term intact. And frankly I don't know that we deserve to.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by WeAreNDHockey View Post

          I don't know how widespread this belief is and I hate to be one thinking it, but if trump wins in any way, whether that is by "counting" the votes, or being declared the winner by courts, I won't believe for a minute he got it by anything other than outright fraud and stealing.

          There may well have been shenanigans beyond voter suppression last time around, but this time? No way am I buying for a minute more people in the right states are going to vote for him.

          The polling organizations that are getting the A+ and A and B+ ratings from 538.com are highly competent at what they do and spent a lot of time and effort shoring up the weakest points in their methodology after a 2016 election that really didn't see them doing a bad job. I believe the polls accurately reflect what people have been doing and will do up to and including November 3rd. Are one or two of them wrong? You betcha. But the odds of them only being wrong in trump's favor instead of say, calling for a 21.8 point win in Connecticutt that turns out to be a 22.6 point win are too long to worry me.

          What worries me is republicans stealing an election. I don't necessarily think that it will happen, but if trump "wins" I believe that is what will have happened. I also think that more people that republicans can possibly imagine are going to believe that too, and it ain't gonna be pretty. I've been saying since 2015 that trump was and is an existential threat to the survival of this country. I believe it even more today and if he is president beyond January 20, 2021, I doubt this country survives his second term intact. And frankly I don't know that we deserve to.
          I’m very confident he loses so bad cheating won’t be an option. I think folks will be surprised just how big the margin is.

          Edit: to put it in hockey terms I think it will look very much like game seven of the 2002 western conference finals and be just as satisfying.
          Originally posted by BobbyBrady
          Crosby probably wouldn't even be on BC's top two lines next year

          Comment


          • Originally posted by bronconick View Post
            One candidate has a 9 point national lead, and we are all sweating the results. If this were happening in any other country, we'd call it a failed state.
            What if our country is a failed state? I think you can make a well-reasoned argument that it is. Frankly I'm sometimes surprised European nations haven't sanctioned us for our poor human and civil rights record.

            I'm not much of an REO Speedwagon fan, but Golden Country is a song that just seems to scream 2020 to me........... Listen up, youngins'
            Last edited by WeAreNDHockey; 10-29-2020, 03:23 PM.

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            • Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
              2020 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight

              538 moved OH & GA to Biden. By far the most likely scenario is Biden @ >400 EC votes.

              IA is 50:50. TX is now firmly in play and in the list of tipping states. Wow.
              Nate is helping D voters mainline way too much of our own Kool-Aid.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Drew S. View Post

                I’m very confident he loses so bad cheating won’t be an option. I think folks will be surprised just how big the margin is.

                Edit: to put it in hockey terms I think it will look very much like game seven of the 2002 western conference finals and be just as satisfying.
                I hope you're right... and I think my Wings just potted ANOTHER goal by Patrick Roy! Must be about eleventy-seven to nothing by now!

                Comment


                • Originally posted by ScoobyDoo View Post
                  Anyone still voting Republican has a criminal mind and a criminal heart.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by FadeToBlack&Gold View Post

                    Nate is helping D voters mainline way too much of our own Kool-Aid.
                    No those are the trends. The numbers out of Texas are pretty good. Not enough to win but a lot closer than say Minnesota is. Trump wont lose it...but if I was making a futures bet (assuming nothing crazy happens in the interim) 2024 will have Texas be the new purple state. It is trending that way in the local elections and by then the Dems might have taken the state house. For as vapid a candidate as Beto was for office, he is doing an awesome job getting voters to the polls and supporting the liberal candidates in the local races. (methinks he might challenge Abbott in 2 years)

                    It is definitely more believable that Iowa is 50/50 though. If Ernst was a stronger Senator he would probably be in a much better position but she is at best leading within the MOE and that puts it in play.

                    But again neither of these states are must wins...they are piling it on and they are more harbingers of the map as a whole. The fact that Texas is within a couple of points is a massive indictment of Trump. And since Texas usually has say 60% turnout for elections (which they have basically matched already and we havent even reached Election Day) it is hard to know what is going to happen.

                    WeAreNDHockey,

                    It will depend on where he won and how. If say he wins Minnesota on way to winning the election I will 100% say there is shenanigans going on. If he wins Arizona but Kelly wins the Senate seat I will think something is up. If Michigan and Wisconsin all of a sudden buck the polling trend and fly back to him I will probably as well. (I could buy one but not both)

                    The problem is, and it goes back to the string after the tweet about possible outcomes, for him to win that is a lot of polling being wrong. Now polling is hardly an exact science and MOE always plays in...but this would be a lot of polling being wrong by a lot of different pollsters over the course of multiple polls in multiple weeks with different methodologies and different biases. That isnt impossible but it isnt likely either. It also isnt impossible I flip a coin 100 times and get 100 heads and 0 tails...but the chances arent great unless factors play in that make it more likely.

                    Personally I think 538 has it pegged almost perfectly. I think 9/1 is a pretty good number. I have bet on and won on bigger odds at the track though ;-)
                    "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
                    -aparch

                    "Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
                    -INCH

                    Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
                    -ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Drew S. View Post

                      I’m very confident he loses so bad cheating won’t be an option. I think folks will be surprised just how big the margin is.

                      Edit: to put it in hockey terms I think it will look very much like game seven of the 2002 western conference finals and be just as satisfying.
                      So the corona response was Trump's "statue of liberty" moment? ;-)

                      Comment


                      • HI is the first state to get over 100% of their 2016 total at 104.5%, but TX close behind at 95%.

                        Of important note, 52M mail ballots returned, 37.8M outstanding.

                        Cornell '04, Stanford '06


                        KDR

                        Rover Frenchy, Classic! Great post.
                        iwh30 I wish I could be as smart as you. I really do you are the man
                        gregg729 I just saw your sig, you do love having people revel in your "intelligence."
                        Ritt18 you are the perfect representation of your alma mater.
                        Miss Thundercat That's it, you win.
                        TBA#2 I want to kill you and dance in your blood.
                        DisplacedCornellian Hahaha. Thread over. Frenchy wins.

                        Test to see if I can add this.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by FadeToBlack&Gold View Post

                          Nate is helping D voters mainline way too much of our own Kool-Aid.
                          Don't worry, the Great Unwashed aren't reading Nate. I've been on Zoom state party strategy meetings the last few months and the level of basic sampling and statistical ignorance is staggering. And I do nothing to dispel it: I want the foot soldiers and the everyday voters to believe it's a one-point race. For the same reason the innumerate fail to get basic math they would also relax if they thought we were ahead.

                          They don't. They are voting for their lives, as they should.
                          Last edited by Kepler; 10-29-2020, 05:11 PM.
                          Cornell University
                          National Champion 1967, 1970
                          ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                          Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

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                          • MI:
                            2.45 million ballots returned of 3.17 million requested. 720k still outstanding. At the rate they've been coming in, only 92% of ballots will be returned by Tuesday, leaving about a quarter million uncounted.

                            Go Green! Go White! Go State!

                            1966, 1986, 2007

                            Go Tigers, Go Packers, Go Red Wings, Go Pistons

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Drew S. View Post

                              I’m very confident he loses so bad cheating won’t be an option. I think folks will be surprised just how big the margin is.
                              In several states it might not matter. TX and GA in particular might just decide to send their own Nazi elector slates regardless of the vote, claiming the vote was fraudulent. We could win those states by 0.5% or 5% or 50% and it wouldn't matter.

                              And there are 6 SCOTUS votes to back them.
                              Cornell University
                              National Champion 1967, 1970
                              ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                              Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

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                              • Originally posted by Kepler View Post

                                In several states it might not matter. TX and GA in particular might just decide to send their own Nazi elector slates regardless of the vote, claiming the vote was fraudulent. We could win those states by 0.5% or 5% or 50% and it wouldn't matter.

                                And there are 6 SCOTUS votes to back them.
                                And that stuff is the kind of stuff that if it were to happen, we cannot take it. We've always heard about people dying for my right to vote, well if we have the right taken away, it must be taken back, with force if necessary. I am tired of fvcking around. Not saying it is going to happen, but if it does all hell needs to break loose.

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