Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Originally posted by FadeToBlack&Gold View Post
    It started that way, but I think it's now fitting, since Republicans don't believe in democracy. Republic is in their name, after all.
    TBF another one of their thought-terminating cliches is just this, "a republic not a democracy." It's a classic case of "I don't think that word means what you think it means," since by the Founders' lights not one of the failures who compose the Republican party today would have been allowed to vote.
    Cornell University
    National Champion 1967, 1970
    ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
    Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Kepler View Post

      I certainly was not accusing you of being a fellow traveler. My post was offered in the spirit of:

      I wasn't accusing swansong or believed the post was meant to annoy either. That is why I posted I did not think it was done on purpose and also meant it as a "more you know" moment. Nothing more, nothing less.

      Comment


      • 538 looks at the battleground deltas over the last few weeks. tl; dr: Biden is getting stronger. So far at least we are not f-cking this up.

        Note that the points in the quote below are odds of winning, not vote percentages. Odds vary directly with votes but amplify them: so for example if Biden leads a state by 55-45 in votes that is let's say 75-25 in odds.

        But underneath the topline numbers, there has still been some fairly big movement in a handful of key battleground states, and the news has been mostly good for Biden. If we look at how much Biden’s odds have changed in states where both he and Trump have at least a 1 in 10 shot of winning since we launched the forecast on Aug. 12, Biden has improved his chances in 17 of 20 states. And in some cases, Biden’s improvement has been considerable — +15 percentage points in Minnesota, +12 points in Arizona and +10 points in Wisconsin, for instance. By comparison, Trump’s odds have really only improved in Florida, although he hasn’t lost much ground in states such as Georgia and Ohio, which may signal that Biden’s electoral gains will not be that expansive. (Trump still leads in Texas, for instance, despite Biden’s improvement there.)
        Last edited by Kepler; 09-16-2020, 03:06 PM.
        Cornell University
        National Champion 1967, 1970
        ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
        Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Kepler View Post
          538 looks at the battleground deltas over the last few weeks. tl; dr: Biden is getting stronger. So far at least we are not f-cking this up.

          Note that the points in the quote below are odds of winning, not vote percentages. Odds vary directly with votes but amplify them: so for example if Biden leads a state by 55-45 in votes that is let's say 75-25 in odds.
          Is there anywhere there that shows the constituent polls? I can't find it with the new setup. I like his analysis numbers and all, but the raw polls would be good to see too.

          Cornell '04, Stanford '06


          KDR

          Rover Frenchy, Classic! Great post.
          iwh30 I wish I could be as smart as you. I really do you are the man
          gregg729 I just saw your sig, you do love having people revel in your "intelligence."
          Ritt18 you are the perfect representation of your alma mater.
          Miss Thundercat That's it, you win.
          TBA#2 I want to kill you and dance in your blood.
          DisplacedCornellian Hahaha. Thread over. Frenchy wins.

          Test to see if I can add this.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by French Rage View Post

            Is there anywhere there that shows the constituent polls? I can't find it with the new setup. I like his analysis numbers and all, but the raw polls would be good to see too.
            I think if you go to each poll you can dig down to the crosstabs. I don't think they aggregate that data because there would be too many apples vs oranges. Just imagine for instance trying generalize Rasmussen's ridiculous data sets with anybody else.
            Cornell University
            National Champion 1967, 1970
            ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
            Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Kepler View Post

              While I agree with your statement, that story is DEMOCRATS IN DISARRAY!!!1!!1

              I hafta write a story about an election where one guy is ahead 8-10 points. I have a deadline to make. What do I write to cut through the clutter? "Guy is still ahead 8-10 points"?
              I certainly wasn't trying to promote, "panic porn" but I would rather the DNC leave no stone left unturned.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Kepler View Post

                FWIW I did not read dx as scolding you at all. I think he was just letting you know same as I was.

                Although I actually am a scold, dx is a better person than I. Low bar.
                Ha, don’t be so sure. I’m no better.
                Code:
                As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
                College Hockey 6       College Football 0
                BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                Originally posted by SanTropez
                May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                Originally posted by Kepler
                When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Kepler View Post

                  I think if you go to each poll you can dig down to the crosstabs. I don't think they aggregate that data because there would be too many apples vs oranges. Just imagine for instance trying generalize Rasmussen's ridiculous data sets with anybody else.
                  Every one of the polls has a clickable link to the pdf. Some are literally hundreds of pages long.
                  Code:
                  As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
                  College Hockey 6       College Football 0
                  BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                  Originally posted by SanTropez
                  May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                  Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                  I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                  Originally posted by Kepler
                  When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                  He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Slap Shot View Post

                    I certainly wasn't trying to promote, "panic porn" but I would rather the DNC leave no stone left unturned.
                    I kinda agree with your sentiment. If it means having a socially distant storefront available... make it happen DNC! Especially in an area that was "neglected" last time, it doesn't matter if you've got it well covered virtually. Boots on the ground.
                    “Demolish the bridges behind you… then there is no choice but to build again.”

                    Live Radio from 100.3

                    Comment


                    • Dump campaign asks Judge to halt NJ early vote count. Because of course

                      http://hill.cm/q9lXuXv?fbclid=IwAR3B...KsjO3lHkerSA1U

                      Comment


                      • So...Dems in Dissaray!!1!??? ;-)
                        "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
                        -aparch

                        "Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
                        -INCH

                        Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
                        -ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007

                        Comment


                        • Just...why

                          https://mobile.twitter.com/jessehawk...41263843700741

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Handyman View Post
                            So...Dems in Dissaray!!1!??? ;-)
                            You don't always have to be a nozzle. =^p

                            Comment


                            • Can you guys help me come up with a response for two dear friends of mine? I posted that Obama video about voting on Facebook and one friend asked “why are people afraid to vote?” And another said “how is going to vote different from going to the supermarket?” I want to explain how we have it really good here but there are areas in the US where polling places are closed and lines are super long, etc. I remember this happened in Wisconsin in the spring - am I misremembering? Anyway, any examples you can provide would be helpful.

                              One of these friends literally lives a block from the school where she has to vote. She just doesn’t get how some people are being forced to travel miles and wait in line for hours in a pandemic to vote.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Scarlet View Post
                                Can you guys help me come up with a response for two dear friends of mine? I posted that Obama video about voting on Facebook and one friend asked “why are people afraid to vote?” And another said “how is going to vote different from going to the supermarket?” I want to explain how we have it really good here but there are areas in the US where polling places are closed and lines are super long, etc. I remember this happened in Wisconsin in the spring - am I misremembering? Anyway, any examples you can provide would be helpful.

                                One of these friends literally lives a block from the school where she has to vote. She just doesn’t get how some people are being forced to travel miles and wait in line for hours in a pandemic to vote.
                                Not to be a wise guy Scarlet, but your friend asks a very good question ...

                                Sworn Enemy of the Perpetually Offended
                                Montreal Expos Forever ...

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X