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Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

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  • Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

    This is weird. Something is just not right with the way this virus is acting or what we think we’ve learned so far. How the hell does 370 pork processors in MO all test positive at one plant, but all asymptomatic???? 17% of the workers. No symptoms, but pos?
    They testing the meat? I would think by now they would have.
    Just weird.
    $90(more) for a drink holding ledge and a Maine blanket, but the views still great.
    Just win.....

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    • Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

      Originally posted by Drew S. View Post
      At this point does anyone see an end game in the US other than herd immunity? I think the only variables are how many people die and how long it takes. The horse has left the barn.
      Even if that's the case (and I don't agree, as there's still a possibility that it can run out before we restart), that does not mean we can restart at will, and just let if happen. Our hospital system is not capable of dealing with that, and a LOT more people would die. It sucks that we are being driven by someone who wants us to believe that it's an honor to work and die so rich people can make more money. But there are companies out there with a real conscience, and they will do what it takes to keep people alive.

      I REALLY wish there was a better alternative to Amazon, at this point. I've already put a short meat supplier list together- Smithfield and Tyson will be avoided- as they clearly can not figure out how to keep their employees safe, and consumers are going to suffer.

      Everyone needs to pay attention to companies that actually care about things other than maximum profits.

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      • Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

        Originally posted by Drew S. View Post
        At this point does anyone see an end game in the US other than herd immunity? I think the only variables are how many people die and how long it takes. The horse has left the barn.
        And that means 2 million Americans dead. Trump is just bored now with Corona, and wants to get back to fellating Wall St. and holding his rallies.

        Lots of dead people don't even enter the equation. Duncan Black said on his blog today, if Trump could just snap his fingers and immediately have things back to normal, with ten million people dead, he'd do that in a heartbeat.
        What kind of cheese are you planning to put on top?

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        • Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

          Originally posted by alfablue View Post
          Even if that's the case (and I don't agree, as there's still a possibility that it can run out before we restart), that does not mean we can restart at will, and just let if happen. Our hospital system is not capable of dealing with that, and a LOT more people would die. It sucks that we are being driven by someone who wants us to believe that it's an honor to work and die so rich people can make more money. But there are companies out there with a real conscience, and they will do what it takes to keep people alive.

          I REALLY wish there was a better alternative to Amazon, at this point. I've already put a short meat supplier list together- Smithfield and Tyson will be avoided- as they clearly can not figure out how to keep their employees safe, and consumers are going to suffer.

          Everyone needs to pay attention to companies that actually care about things other than maximum profits.
          I think we should have a lot stricter lock down, but it doesn't seem likely. For the life of me I can't understand why masks/face coverings haven't been mandatory for a couple months now as well.
          Originally posted by BobbyBrady
          Crosby probably wouldn't even be on BC's top two lines next year

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          • Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

            Originally posted by Wayuphere View Post
            This is weird. Something is just not right with the way this virus is acting or what we think we’ve learned so far. How the hell does 370 pork processors in MO all test positive at one plant, but all asymptomatic???? 17% of the workers. No symptoms, but pos?
            They testing the meat? I would think by now they would have.
            Just weird.
            I've heard some issues with false positives with the antibody tests, and although I've mostly heard about false negatives on the tests to see if you have the infection yourself, maybe there's a couple tests out there that also have false positive problems? The testing marketplace was pretty much the wild west for a minute there with the CDC not even bothering to test these tests that were being released to see if they worked.

            If they are true positives, they just might not have started showing symptoms yet. If you're contagious before you start showing symptoms, I'd bet that you can test positive before showing symptoms as well.

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            • Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

              Originally posted by rufus View Post
              And that means 2 million Americans dead. Trump is just bored now with Corona, and wants to get back to fellating Wall St. and holding his rallies.

              Lots of dead people don't even enter the equation. Duncan Black said on his blog today, if Trump could just snap his fingers and immediately have things back to normal, with ten million people dead, he'd do that in a heartbeat.
              Right now, we will crash through WWI (116k) by the end of May, and the 90k projected for June will put us halfway to WWII. In a very short time in the US.

              And lest we ever forget, looking at South Korea, a gross majority of these deaths were preventable. And I can't really fathom what would happen if dumpy got his way all along- the odds of us passing the sum of all war deaths within one year would be possible (1.3M).

              But that's ALL war related deaths- not sure how accurate the WIKI page is for US military deaths- if it is, we are currently ahead of WWI US combat deaths (63k). And WWII US combat deaths (291K) will be coming. But be clear- COVID19, in it's very short time frame, is now top 4 of war deaths, and will surely be top 3 by June.

              Crazy.

              Why in the world did people make this so political and greedy? Who's making all of the money on masks and respirators that are being held up? Why can't we find out what happens to sized shipments of supplies that were paid for????

              Comment


              • Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

                Originally posted by alfablue
                Right now, we will crash through WWI (116k) by the end of May, and the 90k projected for June will put us halfway to WWII. In a very short time in the US.
                We are actually slowing down a bit right now, and that's likely to continue for a week or so, and the re-opening surge won't start to show up in deaths for at least a couple of weeks. At the current trailing 7-day average - used to take out the days of the week effect from reporting - we'd end up almost exactly on the 116K number for WW1 at the end of the month, and like I said I think the trailing average will actually continue to drop for a bit.

                I'd actually be a little surprised if we passed 116K by the end of May. I'd guess we'll be between 100K - 116K entering June. I think the big question is how big the spike from the morons will be, and that will really only begin to show up in the last part of May and have a huge effect on June.

                The 7 day trailing average peaked at 2207 on April 21st and has been on a pretty consistent, slow decline since then.

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                • Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

                  Originally posted by Drew S. View Post
                  At this point does anyone see an end game in the US other than herd immunity? I think the only variables are how many people die and how long it takes. The horse has left the barn.
                  Except they are not sure that this is going to happen- the conveyed immunity is not a sure deal, they are not sure how long you may continue to have antibodies. The biggest variable still is where you live and the medical system available. Just like it was at the start of this thing, threads ago.

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                  • Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

                    Originally posted by alfablue View Post
                    Why in the world did people make this so political and greedy? Who's making all of the money on masks and respirators that are being held up? Why can't we find out what happens to sized shipments of supplies that were paid for????
                    The both sides are bad people will surely rake me over the coals for saying it, but the right has been making most things political now for at least since Clinton was president. The trumpers just turned that up to eleven. In some instances, it's been going on for even longer than Clinton's first term, as the NRA and gun control make perfectly clear. The well has been so poisoned that something like a virus is political, and you can predict with near 100% accuracy someone's beliefs about the coronavirus based on nothing more than who they voted for in the 2016 presidential election. Make no mistake, plenty of idiots voted for Hillary (I did). But at least that flavor of idiot knows what they don't know, and leaves things like what we need to do in the face of a pandemic to the doctors and other health care professionals and to the researchers who spend a lifetime studying these things.

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                    • Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

                      It was bound to happen. 3 charged with murder of Family Dollar security guard over face mask dispute

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                      • Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

                        Originally posted by Drew S. View Post
                        . For the life of me I can't understand why masks/face coverings haven't been mandatory for a couple months now as well.
                        No political will. Americans freak out about a few weeks of stay at home, which really wasn't staying at home.
                        I swear there ain't no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell.

                        Maine Hockey Love it or Leave it

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                        • Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

                          Originally posted by jflory81 View Post
                          We are actually slowing down a bit right now, and that's likely to continue for a week or so, and the re-opening surge won't start to show up in deaths for at least a couple of weeks. At the current trailing 7-day average - used to take out the days of the week effect from reporting - we'd end up almost exactly on the 116K number for WW1 at the end of the month, and like I said I think the trailing average will actually continue to drop for a bit.

                          I'd actually be a little surprised if we passed 116K by the end of May. I'd guess we'll be between 100K - 116K entering June. I think the big question is how big the spike from the morons will be, and that will really only begin to show up in the last part of May and have a huge effect on June.

                          The 7 day trailing average peaked at 2207 on April 21st and has been on a pretty consistent, slow decline since then.
                          Except that the CDC has predicted 3k/day in June. We will see. It would be nice if you were right, but the hot spots are moving from NY and MI to other places- places who think this is a hoax and have not done anything, in spite of people getting sick and plants being forced to close. And then there's Florida.

                          IMHO, the only reason that the reported deaths per day goes down in the next month is because of lack of reporting. They will be called pneumonia- a sudden and surprising output of it. I have zero faith in our federal government- their motives are totally economic.

                          Comment


                          • Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

                            Originally posted by Drew S. View Post
                            I think we should have a lot stricter lock down, but it doesn't seem likely. For the life of me I can't understand why masks/face coverings haven't been mandatory for a couple months now as well.
                            You try enforcing it. You oughta know how hard that would be, after all your people are the ones running around with assault rifles, threatening lawmakers because they can't get a haircut or buy seeds for all that gardening they do every year.

                            Comment


                            • Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

                              Originally posted by alfablue View Post
                              Except that the CDC has predicted 3k/day in June. We will see. It would be nice if you were right, but the hot spots are moving from NY and MI to other places- places who think this is a hoax and have not done anything, in spite of people getting sick and plants being forced to close. And then there's Florida.

                              IMHO, the only reason that the reported deaths per day goes down in the next month is because of lack of reporting. They will be called pneumonia- a sudden and surprising output of it. I have zero faith in our federal government- their motives are totally economic.
                              Oh, June could be a disaster. I don't think 3K/day is out of the question there (although the IHME model definitely does not agree with it - it has the beginning of June at 800/day and the end at 300/day with a steady decline....TL;DR I still think the IHME model is complete garbage and they need someone who actually knows what they're doing w/ regard to data analysis to interpret past data). We're just going to have a little lull here in early May (which will probably contribute to certain morons being overconfident and re-opening some more) before the effects of those actions become apparent. Deaths are on something like a 3 week lag from actions.

                              We should also point out that deaths in a pandemic are always adjusted upwards after the fact. You just can't count everybody in the moment. When they do excess deaths analysis at the end of the whole thing, I fully expect deaths to at least double. In that respect even the new IHME model is almost definitely underestimating where we are even today, even with their false 2nd peak they say happened that has no actual evidence of occurring in the actual data (if you use 7-day trailing averages to take the day of the week effect out of the data)
                              Last edited by jflory81; 05-04-2020, 04:57 PM.

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                              • Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

                                Originally posted by jflory81 View Post
                                Oh, June could be a disaster. I don't think 3K/day is out of the question there. We're just going to have a little lull here in early May (which will probably contribute to certain morons being overconfident and re-opening some more) before the effects of those actions become apparent. Deaths are on something like a 3 week lag from actions.

                                We should also point out that deaths in a pandemic are always adjusted upwards after the fact. You just can't count everybody in the moment. When they do excess deaths analysis at the end of the whole thing, I fully expect deaths to at least double. In that respect even the new IHME model is almost definitely underestimating where we are even today.
                                If the current low part just averages 2k/day, that's 60k this month. And if there's any decent expectation of 3k/day in June, the last half of the month will be above 2.5k.

                                BTW, the idea that covid is being under counted can be seen in the pneumonia deaths. Normally, it appears that just under 60k/year die from influenza AND pneumonia. Note the AND. And in the very short time that there's reporting of covid, JUST pneumonia is at 66k. So Feb 1 to May 1- 3 months, there are 66k pneumonia deaths when normally there's less than 60k of pneumonia PLUS influenza per year.

                                So right now, pneumonia is 3-6X what it normally is. No way those are not COVID related, since that's the only new thing this year.

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