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Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

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  • #871
    Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

    Originally posted by The Rube View Post
    The margin of error is bigger than the minimum prediction...that's............well that is effed up.
    No, it isn't...it's how this all works.
    Jordan Kawaguchi for Hobey!!
    Originally posted by Quizmire
    mns, this is why i love you.
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    MNS - forking genius.
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    MNS - sometimes you gotta answer your true calling. I think yours is being a pimp.
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    I am a fan of MNS.

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    • #872
      Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

      Originally posted by MinnesotaNorthStar View Post
      No, it isn't...it's how this all works.
      Then just say they don't know. Don't make a prediction. Or at the very least, just predict a max. Leave out the min.
      Never really developed a taste for tequila. Kind of hard to understand how you make a drink out of something that sharp, inhospitable. Now, bourbon is easy to understand.
      Tastes like a warm summer day. -Raylan Givens

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      • #873
        Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

        Originally posted by The Rube View Post
        Then just say they don't know. Don't make a prediction. Or at the very least, just predict a max. Leave out the min.
        Just because you don’t understand (don’t worry, o don’t either) doesn’t mean it’s wrong.
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College Hockey 6       College Football 0
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        May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
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        I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
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        When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
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        • #874
          Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

          Originally posted by Handyman View Post
          Well before Trump said "60k" the number I saw thrown around the most was "100-200" so she isnt wrong. She, like Fauci, is just telling the world to pay no attention to the moron at the podium.
          The current official government model still only projects 72K deaths, with a confidence range of 60K - 115K. The projection has ranged from 60K-75K after updates for like a month, and it's mostly been on the lower end of that range. It's incredibly disingenous to suggest that the projections were always between 100K and 240K when the current model's projection falls under that range, and almost all of that range falls even outside the confidence range of their model.

          Once the social distancing was enacted no one was talking about six figure deaths, particuarly in the government/CDC.

          If she was being honest she would point out that we're careening back towards those higher numbers because of lapses in social distancing, not that "this was always the prediction".

          Originally posted by The Rube
          Through all of this, although I understand the reason why, is the massive gap between the minimum and maximum projections of deaths....can't someone narrow it down even a little? A +/- of 140K doesn't sit right with me.
          Um....that's +/- 70K. The range is 140K.

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          • #875
            Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
            Just because you don’t understand (don’t worry, o don’t either) doesn’t mean it’s wrong.
            That’s an understatement.

            The min is very important as is the entire range. And not just to people like myself with graduate degrees built on this

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            • #876
              Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

              Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
              Just because you don’t understand (don’t worry, o don’t either) doesn’t mean it’s wrong.
              I fully admit I have no clue on these predictions. I don't want the reports to go into "scare" mode, and I don't expect them to be dead-on accurate (because we don't really know), I just wish they could narrow it down a little?
              Never really developed a taste for tequila. Kind of hard to understand how you make a drink out of something that sharp, inhospitable. Now, bourbon is easy to understand.
              Tastes like a warm summer day. -Raylan Givens

              Comment

              • #877
                Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

                It’s hard to narrow it down better when so many dumb ****s are stopping distancing and acting like we can reopen. See, the entire south.

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                • #878
                  Originally posted by Deutsche Gopher Fan View Post
                  It’s hard to narrow it down better when so many dumb ****s are stopping distancing and acting like we can reopen. See, the entire south.
                  Not that I’m disagreeing about much of the South reopening, but when were Colorado, Maine, and Minnesota last considered southern states? Unfortunately, some blue governors and blue states are reopening way too quickly too, and that’s almost what makes it more infuriating for US liberals when we can’t just blame it on stupid Southerners.

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                  • #879
                    Originally posted by psych View Post
                    Not that I’m disagreeing about much of the South reopening, but when were Colorado, Maine, and Minnesota last considered southern states? Unfortunately, some blue governors and blue states are reopening way too quickly too, and that’s almost what makes it more infuriating for US liberals when we can’t just blame it on stupid Southerners.
                    I used an example, it wasn’t meant to be exhaustive.

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                    • #880
                      Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

                      Originally posted by The Rube View Post
                      Through all of this, although I understand the reason why, is the massive gap between the minimum and maximum projections of deaths....can't someone narrow it down even a little? A +/- of 140K doesn't sit right with me.
                      This makes no sense. The spread is what it is because of different potential responses. It's not inexact, it's indeterminate. There's a difference.

                      Edit: I read farther. Rube, this isn't a margin of error. This is the spread in a game where the team hasn't decided whether to play Aaron Rogers or Tim Tebow. If you posit a particular regime of precautions then you get much tighter predictions. It's likely a double hump distribution centered around 100k for staying closed and 240k opening again.

                      The only reason there is any question of which path will be chosen by political leadership is every Republican left in this country is some permutation of criminal, imbecile, and lunatic.
                      Last edited by Kepler; 05-03-2020, 10:37 PM.
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                      • #881
                        Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

                        I guess, predict the maximum. Don't give a minimum. Give us the stark reality. I'd rather have that than a dream, you know?
                        Never really developed a taste for tequila. Kind of hard to understand how you make a drink out of something that sharp, inhospitable. Now, bourbon is easy to understand.
                        Tastes like a warm summer day. -Raylan Givens

                        Comment

                        • #882
                          Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

                          Originally posted by The Rube View Post
                          I guess, predict the maximum. Don't give a minimum. Give us the stark reality. I'd rather have that than a dream, you know?
                          Why? They're telling us "if you listen to the morons then 140,000 more of you will die."

                          That's valuable information.
                          Cornell University
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                          ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                          Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

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                          • #883
                            Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

                            Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                            Why? They're telling us "if you listen to the morons then 140,000 more of you will die."

                            That's valuable information.
                            Then say that.
                            Never really developed a taste for tequila. Kind of hard to understand how you make a drink out of something that sharp, inhospitable. Now, bourbon is easy to understand.
                            Tastes like a warm summer day. -Raylan Givens

                            Comment

                            • #884
                              Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

                              Originally posted by The Rube View Post
                              Then say that.
                              Call the White House. I'll wait.
                              Cornell University
                              National Champion 1967, 1970
                              ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                              Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

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                              • #885
                                Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

                                Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                                Call the White House. I'll wait.
                                You do know who our prez is, right?
                                Never really developed a taste for tequila. Kind of hard to understand how you make a drink out of something that sharp, inhospitable. Now, bourbon is easy to understand.
                                Tastes like a warm summer day. -Raylan Givens

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