Business, Economics, and Taxes: Capitalism. Yay? >=(

[rufus]

WaPo went with " ... difficult for even the most sophisticated hackers to fake ... "

And NYT (buried in here; their investigators also authenticated the emails) believes the emails are real also.

Asked and answered, counselor.

The vast majority of the data - and most of the nearly 129,000 emails it contained - could not be verified by either of the two security experts who reviewed the data for The Post. Neither found clear evidence of tampering in their examinations, but some of the records that might have helped verify contents were not available for analysis, they said.

Neither expert reported finding evidence that individual emails or other files had been manipulated by hackers, but neither was able to rule out that possibility.

You gotta up your troll game. Right now you're just a sad and pathetic loser.

[dxmnkd316]

Yes, it is official per Reuters. Musk has bought Twitter.

[rufus]

In any event, explain to me what nasty things the "confirmed, not faked" emails say.

[unofan]

Wasn't there a Star Trek episode where they planted a fake data chip on someone and then blew up his ship, damaging the chip thereby making it seem legitimate because any errors would be attributable to the explosion rather than forgery?

This seems remarkably similar...

[dxmnkd316]

Question on the fiduciary responsibility of Twitter's board. Could they have rejected this offer if they believed the value of Twitter was really $30/share?
Actually, back up, how does this even work now? Do shareholders vote?

[dxmnkd316]

Well, now that's interesting.... Trading has resumed?

[The Sicatoka]

NYT and WaPo aren't willing to die the "Hunter's Laptop is Fake" hill.

The NYT story talks about specific findings.

[The Sicatoka]

Could they have rejected this offer if they believed the value of Twitter was really $30/share?

(Admittingly exaggerating, but) Yo, dx, someone wants to buy your car for $100k. You check KBB.com and find it's worth $50k. You gonna say "no deal"?

[The Sicatoka]

Actually, back up, how does this even work now? Do shareholders vote?

Assuming there's nothing unique in Twitter's by-laws or Musk's offer, it should follow this path:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tenderoffer.asp

Do we know if there's a number of shares contingency?

[dxmnkd316]

THought about buying Twitter since it's trading at discount still. I don't think it's worth it. The price has a hard ceiling of $54.20 and if you're only getting $2 premium, that's a 4-5% risk of the deal not going through. That seems very low. All downside risk.

Edit: This makes sense. You should be gauging this against treasuries. Assuming this takes 6 months to close, you're measuring the risk and potential reward against 6-month or 1-year treasuries. If they are going to get you a guaranteed 5% in the time it takes to close, then it obviously doesn't make sense. I thought I read that I Bonds are going to hit guaranteed rates nearing that (annualized) number. So unless you're getting shares at a discount to inflation of some risk valuation, it's not worth it.

[The Sicatoka]

THought about buying Twitter since it's trading at discount still. I don't think it's worth it. The price has a hard ceiling of $54.20 and if you're only getting $2 premium, that's a 4-5% risk of the deal not going through. That seems very low. All downside risk.

Edit: This makes sense. You should be gauging this against treasuries. Assuming this takes 6 months to close, you're measuring the risk and potential reward against 6-month or 1-year treasuries. If they are going to get you a guaranteed 5% in the time it takes to close, then it obviously doesn't make sense. I thought I read that I Bonds are going to hit guaranteed rates nearing that (annualized) number. So unless you're getting shares at a discount to inflation of some risk valuation, it's not worth it.

The only ones who are in a good place on this are folks who bought "long" before April 1. If you bought after that dx has the position summed up well. And if you bought on margin in that April window you're razor thin.

[dxmnkd316]

The independent variable is when you think this deal will close. If it you think it will close at the end of the week, then $51.7 is an amazing price. If you think it's going to close in 12 months, you're only earning 4.7% annualized on your investment. Minus any risk (that the deal won't go through) that you want to price in.

So really, there's still value no matter what here, it's just what you think will happen between now and the date he takes control.

i think...

[The Sicatoka]

If it you think it will close at the end of the week, then $51.7 is an amazing price. If you think it's going to close in 12 months, you're only earning 4.7% annualized on your investment.

Buy: 51.7
Sell: 54.8
That's 6% and then subtract trade fees. Under 6%.

In a world of 8+% inflation.

[dxmnkd316]

A block of Tesla shares worth nearly $422 million was sold at 4 PM today. Another block worth $100M was sold at 12:39 PM.

Edit: Total block trades today were worth $1B

[WisconsinWildcard]

I thought I read that I Bonds are going to hit guaranteed rates nearing that (annualized) number. So unless you're getting shares at a discount to inflation of some risk valuation, it's not worth it.

Should be north of 9% for the next 6 months. Although the 10k annual limit certainly limits the advantage you can take/does not scale to the millions/billions being thrown around in the twitter deal.