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  • St. Clown
    replied
    Originally posted by Chuck Murray View Post

    Yes, good point. Down by over 50% over the last three days is definitely an "upward trajectory".

    I'm here on Earth with two feet on terra firma. I'm guessing your head is planted in Uranus.
    When the peaks and troughs of those zig-zagging lines are higher than the peaks and troughs of earlier in the graph, that’s an upward trajectory. It’s scary to face reality, but there you have it.

    Leave a comment:


  • Chuck Murray
    replied
    Originally posted by Swansong View Post
    Ignoring the unnecessary ad hominem, I'm not sure what planet you're on that you can look at that chart and not see an upward trajectory.
    Yes, good point. Down by over 50% over the last three days is definitely an "upward trajectory".

    I'm here on Earth with two feet on terra firma. I'm guessing your head is planted in Uranus.

    Leave a comment:


  • leswp1
    replied
    Originally posted by Chuck Murray View Post

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/d...-3-day-averagehttps://ourworldindata.org/grapher/d...-3-day-average

    Only on this thread, in this forum, would a data-driven graph be considered "opinion".

    Thanks for the amazing insight, Karen ...
    The place to act like an a55hole and insult people is on the thread for discussion. I know most of the people put you on ignore in there but don't pollute this thread with your nastiness.
    This is supposed be a thread to find resources to get help etc.

    Leave a comment:


  • Swansong
    replied
    Originally posted by Chuck Murray View Post

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/d...-3-day-averagehttps://ourworldindata.org/grapher/d...-3-day-average

    Only on this thread, in this forum, would a data-driven graph be considered "opinion".

    Thanks for the amazing insight, Karen ...
    Ignoring the unnecessary ad hominem, I'm not sure what planet you're on that you can look at that chart and not see an upward trajectory.

    Leave a comment:


  • Chuck Murray
    replied
    Originally posted by leswp1 View Post
    There is a thread for posting opinions. This is a thread for posting resources.
    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/d...-3-day-averagehttps://ourworldindata.org/grapher/d...-3-day-average

    Only on this thread, in this forum, would a data-driven graph be considered "opinion".

    Thanks for the amazing insight, Karen ...

    Leave a comment:


  • leswp1
    replied
    There is a thread for posting opinions. This is a thread for posting resources.

    Leave a comment:


  • leswp1
    replied
    I expect all these very dead people to resurrect right after the election and it will magically go away. That would be good because then the handful of people I know who have died, the more than handful of people I know who got really sick and the others who got sick but have not managed to fully recover will miraculously feel better and best of all maybe the truly stupid people will stop posting foolish things and go back to doing what ever it is they usually do (which one can tell is not epidemiology, medicine, or anything to do with healthcare).

    Leave a comment:


  • Chuck Murray
    replied
    Originally posted by E.J. Smith View Post
    Those numbers I posted are simply facts. It's odd that you've taken such a confrontational tone toward them.

    I think I was clear on why I posted them. I even said they weren't intended to diminish what's going on with Covid-19. I really do think people are completely unaware of how deadly the flu is every year. I think if they were aware, there might be slightly less of the overwrought reaction we're seeing now.

    I'd also point out something else related to those numbers. If we social distanced, closed schools, and shut down business during every flu season, October to March of every year, we would save thousands of lives; literally thousands of lives every year. That too is simply a fact. But we don't do it. Why?
    Simple answer, E.J. - election year politics. I've said it all along, now I have zero (0) doubt.

    Getting back to the purpose of this thread, here's a link to the CDC's rolling 3-day average of US deaths. Data tells a FAR different story than the narrative being saturated in the MSM, which has moved the goal posts for the dozenth (or so) time to focus on testing vs. deaths:

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/d...-3-day-average

    Funny how the "second peak" in late June got no mention - certainly not compared to more recent data, which is significantly down from a month ago. Wonder why???

    Leave a comment:


  • DonaldD
    replied
    I think the easiest way to understand Covid, if you want to compare it to the Flu, is by time and numbers.

    2018/2019 Flu killed 34k over the entire flu season. In three months Covid 19 killed 100k.

    It spreads faster and is more deadly by 2.5 to 6 times that of flu.

    If that only sounds "slightly worse" than the flu to you, so be it.

    ________________
    Canada Drugs
    Last edited by DonaldD; 08-01-2020, 10:10 AM.

    Leave a comment:


  • Kepler
    replied
    Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help

    Originally posted by jflory81 View Post
    This is actually relevant to things that were being discussed earlier, but it is also raw information in it's own right:

    The CDC has determined that the 95% confidence interval for the r0 value of COVID-19 is 3.8 - 8.9, with a median value of 5.7. LINK

    I believe even the lower bound of 3.8 is higher than what was previously thought.
    An 8.9 upper bound is insanely high. It's higher than polio (7.0).

    The upper bound for the 1918 pandemic is 2.8.
    Last edited by Kepler; 04-16-2020, 12:26 AM.

    Leave a comment:


  • jflory81
    replied
    Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help

    This is actually relevant to things that were being discussed earlier, but it is also raw information in it's own right:

    The CDC has determined that the 95% confidence interval for the r0 value of COVID-19 is 3.8 - 8.9, with a median value of 5.7. LINK

    I believe even the lower bound of 3.8 is higher than what was previously thought.

    Leave a comment:


  • leswp1
    replied
    Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help

    I was just going to post that. This thread isn't supposed to be for debate. Just for places to find facts and also fun things that are free

    Leave a comment:


  • St. Clown
    replied
    Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help

    Remember when this thread was about COVID-19 resources and not discussion or debate? Pepperidge Farms remembers.

    Leave a comment:


  • jflory81
    replied
    Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help

    Originally posted by E.J. Smith View Post
    Those numbers I posted are simply facts. It's odd that you've taken such a confrontational tone toward them.

    I think I was clear on why I posted them. I even said they weren't intended to diminish what's going on with Covid-19. I really do think people are completely unaware of how deadly the flu is every year. I think if they were aware, there might be slightly less of the overwrought reaction we're seeing now.

    I'd also point out something else related to those numbers. If we social distanced, closed schools, and shut down business during every flu season, October to March of every year, we would save thousands of lives; literally thousands of lives every year. That too is simply a fact. But we don't do it. Why?
    I literally just responded with facts. You chose to interpret that in a confrontational tone.

    I would suggest that things don't shut down every flu season because
    1) the incubation period of the flu is much lower, meaning it is not spread as easily unknowingly by people who don't show symptoms. We're also more careful about seeing elderly relatives/friends who are the most vulnerable when we're sick. When the incubation period is about ~3.5 times longer that's a whole lot more time you can get the elderly sick, and it's more contagious and deadly to boot!

    2) Tens of thousands of people simply isn't that big a number in the grand scheme of things, as cold as that sounds (about 1 in 10,000 people - about the same amount of people die from car accidents or suicides yearly, and those are much younger people, and we are all aware of the risk of car accidents and the prevalence of suicides, I think). The economy does in fact require people getting together and providing goods and services to provide people with money and essential goods. If we end up in the tens of thousands for COVID and not the hundreds of thousands, it will be because Americans did an extraordinary job of social distancing and preventing the spread of the disease. I'm not super optimistic on this front, but there's no doubt that no matter where the death count ends up, it would have been much, much worse without what we're doing over the last few weeks.

    And finally 3) I just want to emphasize once again the difference in scale between what COVID would have been without social distancing, and what the flu is every year. It's not close. It easily could have reached somewhere between 50-100X more deadly without direct intervention. At some point the economy will take a bigger hit from death and sickness than it will from shutting everything down and trying to avoid hundreds of thousands up to possibly more than a million of unnecessary deaths.

    EDIT: Shirtless Guy brings up a good point about vaccines, too. Obviously they aren't foolproof, but they do provide some level of protection for those that get it and the people around them who may be more vulnerable.
    Last edited by jflory81; 04-07-2020, 05:51 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • Shirtless Guy
    replied
    Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help

    Originally posted by E.J. Smith View Post
    Those numbers I posted are simply facts. It's odd that you've taken such a confrontational tone toward them.

    I think I was clear on why I posted them. I even said they weren't intended to diminish what's going on with Covid-19. I really do think people are completely unaware of how deadly the flu is every year. I think if they were aware, there might be slightly less of the overwrought reaction we're seeing now.

    I'd also point out something else related to those numbers. If we social distanced, closed schools, and shut down business during every flu season, October to March of every year, we would save thousands of lives; literally thousands of lives every year. That too is simply a fact. But we don't do it. Why?
    because this wasn't about thousands of lives. This was about way more than that, and we don't have any real defense against this virus. If we did nothing our hospital system would be overwhelmed and way more people would die. I'm not sure why you are defending the idea that this isn't that different than the flu when everything I've read says that its very different. Way more cases with little to no symptoms, way more transmissible, and more deadly. That is a terrible combination. We have the flu shot, the flu mutates a lot and people are working on a universal flu vaccine, but it hasn't worked yet. We invest a lot into the flu, but it is a known issue. We do our best to mitigate it. This novel coronavirus is not that at all. With so many unknowns and estimated values what they are, it was correct to shut things down enough to give us a chance to catch up.

    Leave a comment:

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