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COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help
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Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help
Originally posted by Shirtless Guy View PostHas anyone in Minnesota lost their job or had their hours reduced?
Half of what Scarlet said is false from what I know. The "hard" surfaces, like steel/etc, it's 3 days. Cardboard, 1 day. Copper, a few hours. And that is with all factors in a perfect condition to spread the virus.
Yes, wash hands often. Limited contact. Basic stuff.Never really developed a taste for tequila. Kind of hard to understand how you make a drink out of something that sharp, inhospitable. Now, bourbon is easy to understand.
Tastes like a warm summer day. -Raylan Givens
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Originally posted by Shirtless Guy View PostHas anyone in Minnesota lost their job or had their hours reduced?"The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." George Orwell, 1984
"One does not simply walk into Mordor. Its Black Gates are guarded by more than just Orcs. There is evil there that does not sleep, and the Great Eye is ever watchful. It is a barren wasteland, riddled with fire and ash and dust, the very air you breathe is a poisonous fume." Boromir
"Good news! We have a delivery." Professor Farnsworth
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Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help
CDC disease portal page
https://phgkb.cdc.gov/PHGKB/coVInfoS...C_16_1-DM24883
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Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help
I also posted this on the regular thread. The best medical description of the disease I have seen.Cornell University
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Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help
Originally posted by Kepler View PostI also posted this on the regular thread. The best medical description of the disease I have seen.
In 2019-20, to date, roughly 10,000 people have died from Covid-19 while 30,000 have died from influenza. That comparison will no doubt flip but let's not just write off influenza as some slow moving little nuisance. Tens of thousands of people die from the flu in this country every year.I went home with a waitress the way I always do
How was I to know she was with the russians, too?
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Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help
Originally posted by E.J. Smith View PostI admire his knowledge and his presentation skills but his information related to R0 was a bit flawed. He took the high end of 3 on Covid-19 and the low end of 1 on influenza. In reality, they seem to be very similar to each other, somewhere more between 2-3. Not sure why he did that other than it setup a dramatic, exponential curve for for Covid-19 and a flat line for influenza.
In 2019-20, to date, roughly 10,000 people have died from Covid-19 while 30,000 have died from influenza. That comparison will no doubt flip but let's not just write off influenza as some slow moving little nuisance. Tens of thousands of people die from the flu in this country every year.
After 10 iterations influenza patient zero has infected 58 people, covid-19 has infected 9,536. Obviously 1 and 3 are extremes but its not like they're that far off from reality. Even if you go down to 2 for covid-19 you're looking at 1024 vs 58.Michigan Tech Legend, Founder of Mitch's Misfits, Co-Founder of Tech Hockey Guide, and Creator/Host of the Chasing MacNaughton Podcast covering MTU Hockey and the WCHA.
Sports Allegiance: NFL: GB MLB: MIL NHL: MIN CB: UW CF: UW CH: MTU FIFA: USA MLS: MIN EPL: Everton
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Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help
R0 isn't a perfect metric in any case. How much testing was done, who was tested, herd immunity, vaccinations, etc. It's hard to make valid comparisons. It's all a bit ballpark. And it's especially hard to know the R0 for this "new" virus. But based on what we know about other coronaviruses and influenza, it's highly unlikely that Covid-19 is 3 times more transmissible than the seasonal flu. To me, that seemed a little sensational.I went home with a waitress the way I always do
How was I to know she was with the russians, too?
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Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help
Originally posted by E.J. Smith View PostR0 isn't a perfect metric in any case. How much testing was done, who was tested, herd immunity, vaccinations, etc. It's hard to make valid comparisons. It's all a bit ballpark. And it's especially hard to know the R0 for this "new" virus. But based on what we know about other coronaviruses and influenza, it's highly unlikely that Covid-19 is 3 times more transmissible than the seasonal flu. To me, that seemed a little sensational.Michigan Tech Legend, Founder of Mitch's Misfits, Co-Founder of Tech Hockey Guide, and Creator/Host of the Chasing MacNaughton Podcast covering MTU Hockey and the WCHA.
Sports Allegiance: NFL: GB MLB: MIL NHL: MIN CB: UW CF: UW CH: MTU FIFA: USA MLS: MIN EPL: Everton
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Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help
The point it got across to me was one was on an exponential curve and the other was a flat line. I don't think that's a valid point in any way.
Since it seems we're having this discussion we should probably define R0. My understanding is it measures how transmissible (contagious, infectious) a virus would be moving through a population with no immunity, vaccinations, or interventions.
That state of things passed a long time ago for influenza. So long ago that, again it's my understanding, the CDC doesn't even use R0 for influenza any more and has a different metric that they use for similar purposes. However, it's believed, based on historical data that influenza would have a true R0 of around 2.5.*
It's hard to know where Covid-19 will land but based on other coronaviruses such as SARS and MERS it seems like it's going to be more in the 2-4 range, sort of mid to low end of the table, and nowhere near the high end of things with the 10-12 of measles and chicken pox.
(*The RO for influenza, even with herd immunity and vaccinations seems to be somewhere around 2. That's in large part due to the half-baked job we do with that particular immunization program. Immunizations obviously work - good bye smallpox and polio - we just don't seem to care to put the effort in to eliminate influenza.)I went home with a waitress the way I always do
How was I to know she was with the russians, too?
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Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help
Influenza Deaths in the US
2010-11 --- 37,000
2011-12 --- 12,000
2012-13 --- 43,000
2013-14 --- 38,000
2014-15 --- 51,000
2015-16 --- 23,000
2016-17 --- 38,000
2017-18 --- 61,000
2018-19 --- 34,000
I don't post that to diminish Covid-19. I post that because it seems that people think we've been living in this pure, clean world with no viruses, and suddenly we've gone from 0 to 100 on this. We haven't. Viruses are among us. They kill tens of thousands of us per year.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.htmlI went home with a waitress the way I always do
How was I to know she was with the russians, too?
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Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help
Originally posted by E.J. Smith View PostInfluenza Deaths in the US
2010-11 --- 37,000
2011-12 --- 12,000
2012-13 --- 43,000
2013-14 --- 38,000
2014-15 --- 51,000
2015-16 --- 23,000
2016-17 --- 38,000
2017-18 --- 61,000
2018-19 --- 34,000
I don't post that to diminish Covid-19. I post that because it seems that people think we've been living in this pure, clean world with no viruses, and suddenly we've gone from 0 to 100 on this. We haven't. Viruses are among us. They kill tens of thousands of us per year.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html
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Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help
Originally posted by jflory81 View PostAll of those numbers are in a completely different ballpark to what COVID would have done if we had simply gone about our lives. Everyone knows that it's possible to die from the flu. The Spanish flu killed millions of people (albeit at a much different time in human history, with much less/worse medicine).
I think I was clear on why I posted them. I even said they weren't intended to diminish what's going on with Covid-19. I really do think people are completely unaware of how deadly the flu is every year. I think if they were aware, there might be slightly less of the overwrought reaction we're seeing now.
I'd also point out something else related to those numbers. If we social distanced, closed schools, and shut down business during every flu season, October to March of every year, we would save thousands of lives; literally thousands of lives every year. That too is simply a fact. But we don't do it. Why?I went home with a waitress the way I always do
How was I to know she was with the russians, too?
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Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help
Originally posted by E.J. Smith View PostThose numbers I posted are simply facts. It's odd that you've taken such a confrontational tone toward them.
I think I was clear on why I posted them. I even said they weren't intended to diminish what's going on with Covid-19. I really do think people are completely unaware of how deadly the flu is every year. I think if they were aware, there might be slightly less of the overwrought reaction we're seeing now.
I'd also point out something else related to those numbers. If we social distanced, closed schools, and shut down business during every flu season, October to March of every year, we would save thousands of lives; literally thousands of lives every year. That too is simply a fact. But we don't do it. Why?Michigan Tech Legend, Founder of Mitch's Misfits, Co-Founder of Tech Hockey Guide, and Creator/Host of the Chasing MacNaughton Podcast covering MTU Hockey and the WCHA.
Sports Allegiance: NFL: GB MLB: MIL NHL: MIN CB: UW CF: UW CH: MTU FIFA: USA MLS: MIN EPL: Everton
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Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help
Originally posted by E.J. Smith View PostThose numbers I posted are simply facts. It's odd that you've taken such a confrontational tone toward them.
I think I was clear on why I posted them. I even said they weren't intended to diminish what's going on with Covid-19. I really do think people are completely unaware of how deadly the flu is every year. I think if they were aware, there might be slightly less of the overwrought reaction we're seeing now.
I'd also point out something else related to those numbers. If we social distanced, closed schools, and shut down business during every flu season, October to March of every year, we would save thousands of lives; literally thousands of lives every year. That too is simply a fact. But we don't do it. Why?
I would suggest that things don't shut down every flu season because
1) the incubation period of the flu is much lower, meaning it is not spread as easily unknowingly by people who don't show symptoms. We're also more careful about seeing elderly relatives/friends who are the most vulnerable when we're sick. When the incubation period is about ~3.5 times longer that's a whole lot more time you can get the elderly sick, and it's more contagious and deadly to boot!
2) Tens of thousands of people simply isn't that big a number in the grand scheme of things, as cold as that sounds (about 1 in 10,000 people - about the same amount of people die from car accidents or suicides yearly, and those are much younger people, and we are all aware of the risk of car accidents and the prevalence of suicides, I think). The economy does in fact require people getting together and providing goods and services to provide people with money and essential goods. If we end up in the tens of thousands for COVID and not the hundreds of thousands, it will be because Americans did an extraordinary job of social distancing and preventing the spread of the disease. I'm not super optimistic on this front, but there's no doubt that no matter where the death count ends up, it would have been much, much worse without what we're doing over the last few weeks.
And finally 3) I just want to emphasize once again the difference in scale between what COVID would have been without social distancing, and what the flu is every year. It's not close. It easily could have reached somewhere between 50-100X more deadly without direct intervention. At some point the economy will take a bigger hit from death and sickness than it will from shutting everything down and trying to avoid hundreds of thousands up to possibly more than a million of unnecessary deaths.
EDIT: Shirtless Guy brings up a good point about vaccines, too. Obviously they aren't foolproof, but they do provide some level of protection for those that get it and the people around them who may be more vulnerable.Last edited by jflory81; 04-07-2020, 05:51 PM.
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