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  • leswp1
    replied
    I expect all these very dead people to resurrect right after the election and it will magically go away. That would be good because then the handful of people I know who have died, the more than handful of people I know who got really sick and the others who got sick but have not managed to fully recover will miraculously feel better and best of all maybe the truly stupid people will stop posting foolish things and go back to doing what ever it is they usually do (which one can tell is not epidemiology, medicine, or anything to do with healthcare).

    Leave a comment:


  • Chuck Murray
    replied
    Originally posted by E.J. Smith View Post
    Those numbers I posted are simply facts. It's odd that you've taken such a confrontational tone toward them.

    I think I was clear on why I posted them. I even said they weren't intended to diminish what's going on with Covid-19. I really do think people are completely unaware of how deadly the flu is every year. I think if they were aware, there might be slightly less of the overwrought reaction we're seeing now.

    I'd also point out something else related to those numbers. If we social distanced, closed schools, and shut down business during every flu season, October to March of every year, we would save thousands of lives; literally thousands of lives every year. That too is simply a fact. But we don't do it. Why?
    Simple answer, E.J. - election year politics. I've said it all along, now I have zero (0) doubt.

    Getting back to the purpose of this thread, here's a link to the CDC's rolling 3-day average of US deaths. Data tells a FAR different story than the narrative being saturated in the MSM, which has moved the goal posts for the dozenth (or so) time to focus on testing vs. deaths:

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/d...-3-day-average

    Funny how the "second peak" in late June got no mention - certainly not compared to more recent data, which is significantly down from a month ago. Wonder why???

    Leave a comment:


  • DonaldD
    replied
    I think the easiest way to understand Covid, if you want to compare it to the Flu, is by time and numbers.

    2018/2019 Flu killed 34k over the entire flu season. In three months Covid 19 killed 100k.

    It spreads faster and is more deadly by 2.5 to 6 times that of flu.

    If that only sounds "slightly worse" than the flu to you, so be it.

    ________________
    Canada Drugs
    Last edited by DonaldD; 08-01-2020, 10:10 AM.

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  • Kepler
    replied
    Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help

    Originally posted by jflory81 View Post
    This is actually relevant to things that were being discussed earlier, but it is also raw information in it's own right:

    The CDC has determined that the 95% confidence interval for the r0 value of COVID-19 is 3.8 - 8.9, with a median value of 5.7. LINK

    I believe even the lower bound of 3.8 is higher than what was previously thought.
    An 8.9 upper bound is insanely high. It's higher than polio (7.0).

    The upper bound for the 1918 pandemic is 2.8.
    Last edited by Kepler; 04-16-2020, 12:26 AM.

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  • jflory81
    replied
    Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help

    This is actually relevant to things that were being discussed earlier, but it is also raw information in it's own right:

    The CDC has determined that the 95% confidence interval for the r0 value of COVID-19 is 3.8 - 8.9, with a median value of 5.7. LINK

    I believe even the lower bound of 3.8 is higher than what was previously thought.

    Leave a comment:


  • leswp1
    replied
    Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help

    I was just going to post that. This thread isn't supposed to be for debate. Just for places to find facts and also fun things that are free

    Leave a comment:


  • St. Clown
    replied
    Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help

    Remember when this thread was about COVID-19 resources and not discussion or debate? Pepperidge Farms remembers.

    Leave a comment:


  • jflory81
    replied
    Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help

    Originally posted by E.J. Smith View Post
    Those numbers I posted are simply facts. It's odd that you've taken such a confrontational tone toward them.

    I think I was clear on why I posted them. I even said they weren't intended to diminish what's going on with Covid-19. I really do think people are completely unaware of how deadly the flu is every year. I think if they were aware, there might be slightly less of the overwrought reaction we're seeing now.

    I'd also point out something else related to those numbers. If we social distanced, closed schools, and shut down business during every flu season, October to March of every year, we would save thousands of lives; literally thousands of lives every year. That too is simply a fact. But we don't do it. Why?
    I literally just responded with facts. You chose to interpret that in a confrontational tone.

    I would suggest that things don't shut down every flu season because
    1) the incubation period of the flu is much lower, meaning it is not spread as easily unknowingly by people who don't show symptoms. We're also more careful about seeing elderly relatives/friends who are the most vulnerable when we're sick. When the incubation period is about ~3.5 times longer that's a whole lot more time you can get the elderly sick, and it's more contagious and deadly to boot!

    2) Tens of thousands of people simply isn't that big a number in the grand scheme of things, as cold as that sounds (about 1 in 10,000 people - about the same amount of people die from car accidents or suicides yearly, and those are much younger people, and we are all aware of the risk of car accidents and the prevalence of suicides, I think). The economy does in fact require people getting together and providing goods and services to provide people with money and essential goods. If we end up in the tens of thousands for COVID and not the hundreds of thousands, it will be because Americans did an extraordinary job of social distancing and preventing the spread of the disease. I'm not super optimistic on this front, but there's no doubt that no matter where the death count ends up, it would have been much, much worse without what we're doing over the last few weeks.

    And finally 3) I just want to emphasize once again the difference in scale between what COVID would have been without social distancing, and what the flu is every year. It's not close. It easily could have reached somewhere between 50-100X more deadly without direct intervention. At some point the economy will take a bigger hit from death and sickness than it will from shutting everything down and trying to avoid hundreds of thousands up to possibly more than a million of unnecessary deaths.

    EDIT: Shirtless Guy brings up a good point about vaccines, too. Obviously they aren't foolproof, but they do provide some level of protection for those that get it and the people around them who may be more vulnerable.
    Last edited by jflory81; 04-07-2020, 05:51 PM.

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  • Shirtless Guy
    replied
    Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help

    Originally posted by E.J. Smith View Post
    Those numbers I posted are simply facts. It's odd that you've taken such a confrontational tone toward them.

    I think I was clear on why I posted them. I even said they weren't intended to diminish what's going on with Covid-19. I really do think people are completely unaware of how deadly the flu is every year. I think if they were aware, there might be slightly less of the overwrought reaction we're seeing now.

    I'd also point out something else related to those numbers. If we social distanced, closed schools, and shut down business during every flu season, October to March of every year, we would save thousands of lives; literally thousands of lives every year. That too is simply a fact. But we don't do it. Why?
    because this wasn't about thousands of lives. This was about way more than that, and we don't have any real defense against this virus. If we did nothing our hospital system would be overwhelmed and way more people would die. I'm not sure why you are defending the idea that this isn't that different than the flu when everything I've read says that its very different. Way more cases with little to no symptoms, way more transmissible, and more deadly. That is a terrible combination. We have the flu shot, the flu mutates a lot and people are working on a universal flu vaccine, but it hasn't worked yet. We invest a lot into the flu, but it is a known issue. We do our best to mitigate it. This novel coronavirus is not that at all. With so many unknowns and estimated values what they are, it was correct to shut things down enough to give us a chance to catch up.

    Leave a comment:


  • E.J. Smith
    replied
    Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help

    Originally posted by jflory81 View Post
    All of those numbers are in a completely different ballpark to what COVID would have done if we had simply gone about our lives. Everyone knows that it's possible to die from the flu. The Spanish flu killed millions of people (albeit at a much different time in human history, with much less/worse medicine).
    Those numbers I posted are simply facts. It's odd that you've taken such a confrontational tone toward them.

    I think I was clear on why I posted them. I even said they weren't intended to diminish what's going on with Covid-19. I really do think people are completely unaware of how deadly the flu is every year. I think if they were aware, there might be slightly less of the overwrought reaction we're seeing now.

    I'd also point out something else related to those numbers. If we social distanced, closed schools, and shut down business during every flu season, October to March of every year, we would save thousands of lives; literally thousands of lives every year. That too is simply a fact. But we don't do it. Why?

    Leave a comment:


  • jflory81
    replied
    Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help

    Originally posted by E.J. Smith View Post
    Influenza Deaths in the US
    2010-11 --- 37,000
    2011-12 --- 12,000
    2012-13 --- 43,000
    2013-14 --- 38,000
    2014-15 --- 51,000
    2015-16 --- 23,000
    2016-17 --- 38,000
    2017-18 --- 61,000
    2018-19 --- 34,000

    I don't post that to diminish Covid-19. I post that because it seems that people think we've been living in this pure, clean world with no viruses, and suddenly we've gone from 0 to 100 on this. We haven't. Viruses are among us. They kill tens of thousands of us per year.

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html
    All of those numbers are in a completely different ballpark to what COVID would have done if we had simply gone about our lives. Everyone knows that it's possible to die from the flu. The Spanish flu killed millions of people (albeit at a much different time in human history, with much less/worse medicine).

    Leave a comment:


  • E.J. Smith
    replied
    Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help

    Influenza Deaths in the US
    2010-11 --- 37,000
    2011-12 --- 12,000
    2012-13 --- 43,000
    2013-14 --- 38,000
    2014-15 --- 51,000
    2015-16 --- 23,000
    2016-17 --- 38,000
    2017-18 --- 61,000
    2018-19 --- 34,000

    I don't post that to diminish Covid-19. I post that because it seems that people think we've been living in this pure, clean world with no viruses, and suddenly we've gone from 0 to 100 on this. We haven't. Viruses are among us. They kill tens of thousands of us per year.

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

    Leave a comment:


  • E.J. Smith
    replied
    Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help

    The point it got across to me was one was on an exponential curve and the other was a flat line. I don't think that's a valid point in any way.

    Since it seems we're having this discussion we should probably define R0. My understanding is it measures how transmissible (contagious, infectious) a virus would be moving through a population with no immunity, vaccinations, or interventions.

    That state of things passed a long time ago for influenza. So long ago that, again it's my understanding, the CDC doesn't even use R0 for influenza any more and has a different metric that they use for similar purposes. However, it's believed, based on historical data that influenza would have a true R0 of around 2.5.*

    It's hard to know where Covid-19 will land but based on other coronaviruses such as SARS and MERS it seems like it's going to be more in the 2-4 range, sort of mid to low end of the table, and nowhere near the high end of things with the 10-12 of measles and chicken pox.


    (*The RO for influenza, even with herd immunity and vaccinations seems to be somewhere around 2. That's in large part due to the half-baked job we do with that particular immunization program. Immunizations obviously work - good bye smallpox and polio - we just don't seem to care to put the effort in to eliminate influenza.)

    Leave a comment:


  • Shirtless Guy
    replied
    Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help

    Originally posted by E.J. Smith View Post
    R0 isn't a perfect metric in any case. How much testing was done, who was tested, herd immunity, vaccinations, etc. It's hard to make valid comparisons. It's all a bit ballpark. And it's especially hard to know the R0 for this "new" virus. But based on what we know about other coronaviruses and influenza, it's highly unlikely that Covid-19 is 3 times more transmissible than the seasonal flu. To me, that seemed a little sensational.
    sure its a little extreme but to draw out 2.5 and 1.5 people doesn't exactly make as much sense at 1 vs 3. It got the point across.

    Leave a comment:


  • E.J. Smith
    replied
    Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help

    R0 isn't a perfect metric in any case. How much testing was done, who was tested, herd immunity, vaccinations, etc. It's hard to make valid comparisons. It's all a bit ballpark. And it's especially hard to know the R0 for this "new" virus. But based on what we know about other coronaviruses and influenza, it's highly unlikely that Covid-19 is 3 times more transmissible than the seasonal flu. To me, that seemed a little sensational.

    Leave a comment:

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