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The GQP Thread: I'm even sick of that ****** number and, anyway, he's gone (for now)

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  • #811
    Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post

    Uh, the #s I'm seeing aren't that bad. In fact, better than expected in some cases...

    This map shows extremely strong growth in urban areas. Rural is mostly less than zero. Obviously we already found out about house seats +/-. We'll see I guess. The demographics showed white non-hispanic was 2% lower than expected. That's a LOT.


    Considering most of that urban growth is in Republican states with full GOP control over redistricting, they’ll have plenty of ways to figure out how to crack and pack Democratic voters to achieve their outcomes, and no Supreme Court to stop any of it. Somewhere I read the GOP will be able to draw 4-5 of every 10 congressional districts, while Democrats will be able to draw less than 2. It’s highly likely the GOP will flip the House on gerrymandering and redistricting alone. One article predicted minimum GOP 6 seats gained from TX, FL, NC, and GA, with the potential for 10-12.

    Edit: One quick instance I’m aware of. Nashville is EXPLODING, but the GOP will likely redraw Cooper’s safely blue Nashville seat into a competitive, if not lean R seat, just by combining rural R counties into his seat. The same COULD happen to Yarmuth in Kentucky’s safe D Louisville seat, but ironically, McConnell seems against that idea.
    Last edited by psych; 08-12-2021, 11:09 PM.

    Comment

    • #812
      Originally posted by psych View Post

      Considering most of that urban growth is in Republican states with full GOP control over redistricting, they’ll have plenty of ways to figure out how to crack and pack Democratic voters to achieve their outcomes, and no Supreme Court to stop any of it. Somewhere I read the GOP will be able to draw 4-5 of every 10 congressional districts, while Democrats will be able to draw less than 2. It’s highly likely the GOP will flip the House on gerrymandering and redistricting alone. One article predicted minimum GOP 6 seats gained from TX, FL, NC, and GA, with the potential for 10-12.

      Edit: One quick instance I’m aware of. Nashville is EXPLODING, but the GOP will likely redraw Cooper’s safely blue Nashville seat into a competitive, if not lean R seat, just by combining rural R counties into his seat. The same COULD happen to Yarmuth in Kentucky’s safe D Louisville seat, but ironically, McConnell seems against that idea.
      Oh good ****ing luck. I mean, you can only do so much. You can stack and crack to your heart's desire, but they're not going to be able do that when you've got massive gains in the cities and actual losses nearly across the board in rural areas. The math just isn't going to work.

      you're also going to see states like Minnesota likely chop off an entire GOP seat. Ditto for New York. California probably the same.

      It might be a problem for the next 12-20 years, but whites are becoming a plurality much, much faster than anyone thought. If the nation
      Code:
      As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
College Hockey 6       College Football 0
BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
      Originally posted by SanTropez
      May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
      Originally posted by bigblue_dl
      I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
      Originally posted by Kepler
      When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
      He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

      Comment

      • #813
        Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post

        Oh good ****ing luck. I mean, you can only do so much. You can stack and crack to your heart's desire, but they're not going to be able do that when you've got massive gains in the cities and actual losses nearly across the board in rural areas. The math just isn't going to work.

        you're also going to see states like Minnesota likely chop off an entire GOP seat. Ditto for New York. California probably the same.

        It might be a problem for the next 12-20 years, but whites are becoming a plurality much, much faster than anyone thought. If the nation
        California is more likely to chop off a Democratic seat in the LA area than a GOP seat. Besides, the state has an independent commission. The report I read, I think it was in a DKE article, accounted for Democratic gains in New York, Illinois, etc. At the end of the day, redistrcting/gerrymandering is still a huge GOP advantage, with no backstop. I mean, do you think Republicans ****ing care that more people moved to the city? They’ll reconfigure the map any ****ing way they want to make it work, and they will make it work. Map integrity means nothing to the party in charge, and that includes when Democrats are in charge. The GOP held statehouses and the power to redraw, and they’ll do it any way they can.
        Sure, it may not work for them in a decade or two, but 12-20 years is a long time in politics. Some on here predict we won’t even be living in a democracy by the end of the 2024, much less 2033-2041. I mean, you should know that as well as anyone, going from a Republican to a Democrat in that amount of time.

        Comment

        • #814
          Ok. Great. We're doomed. Got it.
          Code:
          As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
College Hockey 6       College Football 0
BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
          Originally posted by SanTropez
          May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
          Originally posted by bigblue_dl
          I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
          Originally posted by Kepler
          When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
          He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

          Comment

          • #815
            psych isnt wrong...he isnt exactly right either but he isnt wrong. In theory they could parse it off enough to steal enough seats but that still needs assumptions to be proven true for it to shift it enough. These elections don't happen in vacuums and you stack the deck so much.

            The ap is not super helpful but it is not unbeatable.
            "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
            -aparch

            "Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
            -INCH

            Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
            -ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007

            Comment

            • #816
              Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
              Ok. Great. We're doomed. Got it.
              Doomed forever? Doubtful. I won’t go that far yet. Screwed for holding the House next year? Yeah, it’s highly likely. I’m just repeating what the experts are saying.
              Now, if the reconciliation bill passes, we message it as a party correctly (keep it simple, stupid), it’s possible the losses are fewer, and hell, we might even retain or gain in the Senate this cycle, thanks to Tester and Manchin not being on the hook until 2024. We can pick up PA, WI, maybe NC but I’m not holding my breath. They’ll have GA, with their new voter law on the books that they’re already utilizing in Fulton County. AZ, where we hope Kelly is safe but people showed up to vote against Trump as much as for Kelly/Biden in 2020, and Hassan in NH, assuming Sununu goes for it, which all signs currently point to yes. We’ll obviously take a wash, but 51-49 gives us complete control of committees, and renders Manchin less important. A McCarthy-held House means no major legislation passes anymore, but Biden can continue to push through judges, etc.

              Comment

              • #817
                Originally posted by Handyman View Post
                psych isnt wrong...he isnt exactly right either but he isnt wrong. In theory they could parse it off enough to steal enough seats but that still needs assumptions to be proven true for it to shift it enough. These elections don't happen in vacuums and you stack the deck so much.

                The ap is not super helpful but it is not unbeatable.
                I could absolutely be wrong. I love when I’m wrong about my party losing. If we retain the House and Senate come 2023, we can have a week’s worth of “bash psych” days on here. I’ll love it.
                And, you’re right. It’s all hypothetical/theoretical right now. The GOP won’t be able to gerrymander the way they did in 2010/2011. The urban areas rapidly diversifying/growing means they’ll have to be extra cautious in how they draw the seats, since it’ll be harder to parse which block exactly within the city to cut off two seats, versus cutting them off in rural counties. Just, right now, I think they’ll have the capability. Even if this is their last gasp, they’ll do it correctly. Again, we can make 11/9-11/15/2022 “bash psych” week if I’m wrong.

                Comment

                • #818
                  “Demolish the bridges behind you… then there is no choice but to build again.”

                  Live Radio from 100.3

                  Comment

                  • #819
                    Originally posted by psych View Post

                    I could absolutely be wrong. I love when I’m wrong about my party losing. If we retain the House and Senate come 2023, we can have a week’s worth of “bash psych” days on here. I’ll love it.
                    And, you’re right. It’s all hypothetical/theoretical right now. The GOP won’t be able to gerrymander the way they did in 2010/2011. The urban areas rapidly diversifying/growing means they’ll have to be extra cautious in how they draw the seats, since it’ll be harder to parse which block exactly within the city to cut off two seats, versus cutting them off in rural counties. Just, right now, I think they’ll have the capability. Even if this is their last gasp, they’ll do it correctly. Again, we can make 11/9-11/15/2022 “bash psych” week if I’m wrong.
                    It is not a bad take, because right now the conventional wisdom shows that the GOP will be able to stack the deck enough to win the House. Plus it seems to be a favorite past time of this country to hamper the President with a non-friendly Congress. If the elections were this November I would almost assuredly bet on the Dems losing The House.

                    There is just so much time though. Think about how much has changed just in the last year. (and sadly how much hasnt) Between now and next November who knows what will have happened. If Biden keeps things humming though and we dont have a catastrophe I think we eek it out.
                    "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
                    -aparch

                    "Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
                    -INCH

                    Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
                    -ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007

                    Comment

                    • #820
                      Originally posted by aparch View Post
                      I just got the upgrade to my 5G so I am ready to get that signal!!
                      "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
                      -aparch

                      "Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
                      -INCH

                      Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
                      -ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007
                      • 1 like

                      Comment

                      • #821
                        Man Twitter is having a field day over Trump Reinstatement Day. I like this:



                        Edit: And this!

                        Last edited by Handyman; 08-13-2021, 02:17 PM.
                        "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
                        -aparch

                        "Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
                        -INCH

                        Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
                        -ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007

                        Comment

                        • #822
                          Of course the UK shooter is a Trump incel

                          https://mobile.twitter.com/oneunders...10456457711618

                          Comment

                          • #823
                            https://twitter.com/PattyArquette/st...515471366?s=19

                            Pelosi Laptop Thief's Dad Busted On Child Porn Charges In Undercover Sting https://t.co/rcazB8fajR
                            "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
                            -aparch

                            "Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
                            -INCH

                            Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
                            -ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007

                            Comment

                            • #824
                              Cornell University
                              National Champion 1967, 1970
                              ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                              Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020
                              • 3 likes

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                              • #825
                                Originally posted by Handyman View Post
                                https://twitter.com/PattyArquette/st...515471366?s=19
                                Hillary had a word for these sort of people.
                                What kind of cheese are you planning to put on top?

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