NFL 2019-20: The Patriots Are A Terrible 11-3 Team!

[rufus]

But it says there's gonna be a sensor in the ball.

[MichVandal]

I mean, the WFL, the original USFL, the Professional Spring Football League (that never got past training camp), the original XFL, NFL Europe and the AAF all failed. A 50 year graveyard of failed and dead football leagues yet here's Fox throwing out $200 million on yet another try.

I doubt there's money to be made for someone because every rich dumb**** in the last 50 years has tried and failed. The only one making any money on these ventures is the NFL, and that's only because they got free R&D to improve their product.

The original USFL failed because dumpy wanted to move them to a fall season, so that he would have a chance of owning an NFL team. The moment they made that announcement, that was the end of the league.

Most of others failed because the product on the field sucked, which meant the costs were way too high to sustain.

But the most recent XFL version was very popular, and great promise- until the league was forced to shut down. And based on that- it's really why the USFL and XFL/AFL are trying again. The dumb thing to me is that they are trying on their own- when they really should be working together. There is significant opportunity for a minor league football system- as there's more than enough college tallent to have a decent second league. A league that could work with the NFL to develop players and rules.

[Jimjamesak]

The original USFL failed because dumpy wanted to move them to a fall season, so that he would have a chance of owning an NFL team. The moment they made that announcement, that was the end of the league.

Most of others failed because the product on the field sucked, which meant the costs were way too high to sustain.

But the most recent XFL version was very popular, and great promise- until the league was forced to shut down. And based on that- it's really why the USFL and XFL/AFL are trying again. The dumb thing to me is that they are trying on their own- when they really should be working together. There is significant opportunity for a minor league football system- as there's more than enough college tallent to have a decent second league. A league that could work with the NFL to develop players and rules.

There already is a successful minor league for football: college football.

Football is a massive toll on the body and minor leagues can’t pay enough to get good enough talent to be entertaining and still be sustainable. You’re not going to get many talented people to sign up for $50k a season.

You need ownership that’s willing to absorb heavy losses, like a billion plus in losses, over many years. There’s just not really any people with the money willing to do that.

I just look at all this stuff and think “same song, different chorus”. They might last a few years but by Year 3 or 4 people are going to get bored, the excitement will wear off, the money will run out and they’ll fold.

[Russell Jaslow]

But it says there's gonna be a sensor in the ball.

Fine. But it doesn't matter where the sensor is placed (other than to determine if the nose of the ball crossed the goal line). Because to calculate 10 yards is to calculate 10 yards. From sensor spot to sensor spot.

[MichVandal]

There already is a successful minor league for football: college football.

Football is a massive toll on the body and minor leagues can’t pay enough to get good enough talent to be entertaining and still be sustainable. You’re not going to get many talented people to sign up for $50k a season.

You need ownership that’s willing to absorb heavy losses, like a billion plus in losses, over many years. There’s just not really any people with the money willing to do that.

I just look at all this stuff and think “same song, different chorus”. They might last a few years but by Year 3 or 4 people are going to get bored, the excitement will wear off, the money will run out and they’ll fold.

They pay more than arena football does, which is arguably worse, since many of the players have to play both offense and defense. College football outputs hundreds of players a year that are done. Other than the CFL (which will pay more, but has citizenship restrictions) and Arena- they have no place to go. This is for that.

If you add up ALL of the teams, the entire roster doesn't even come close to $1B. There are 8 teams of 35 players, so 280 players. Call it 300 total USFL players. They are scheduled to average $45k- call it $60 with bonuses. That's $18M in player pay for now. Every game this season will be played at the same stadium in Birmingham, Alabama- so it's an unused, non-pro stadium. And no games will be at the same time as another. At most, the expenses for the season will be $50M- probably way less since they won't likely pay more for the single stadium than the players. And if it works, they will then go back to their home areas for smaller arenas. To cover that, it's not much for Fox to pay out, and sell ads.

Will it last? Who knows. But I'm betting there are enough people who would watch this that it's worth it. The entire NFL fanbase can easily be shared with the MLS, MLB, and this. Let alone the college FB fanbase who want to see other players play.

[SonofSouthie]

Someone's trippin'.

Las Vegas quarterback Derek Carr has agreed to a three-year contract extension worth $121.5 million, according to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler and multiple reports.
Carr received a no-trade clause as part of the deal, a source told Fowler.

[Jimjamesak]

They pay more than arena football does, which is arguably worse, since many of the players have to play both offense and defense. College football outputs hundreds of players a year that are done. Other than the CFL (which will pay more, but has citizenship restrictions) and Arena- they have no place to go. This is for that.

If you add up ALL of the teams, the entire roster doesn't even come close to $1B. There are 8 teams of 35 players, so 280 players. Call it 300 total USFL players. They are scheduled to average $45k- call it $60 with bonuses. That's $18M in player pay for now. Every game this season will be played at the same stadium in Birmingham, Alabama- so it's an unused, non-pro stadium. And no games will be at the same time as another. At most, the expenses for the season will be $50M- probably way less since they won't likely pay more for the single stadium than the players. And if it works, they will then go back to their home areas for smaller arenas. To cover that, it's not much for Fox to pay out, and sell ads.

Will it last? Who knows. But I'm betting there are enough people who would watch this that it's worth it. The entire NFL fanbase can easily be shared with the MLS, MLB, and this. Let alone the college FB fanbase who want to see other players play.

If you’re only calculating player salaries in your business plan, you have a terrible business plan.

First of all, you need a place to play and that means a stadium. Any stadium they’re going to play at is going to cost a pretty penny and any attendance is likely not to going to recoup the cost since the options are a) an NFL stadium at extortion prices and the wonderful optics of NFL logos plastered everywhere, b) a college stadium with bench seating everywhere (meaning you can’t charge more than $20-25 a ticket), or c) an MLS stadium where they’ll be paying a high rent cost and for the grass to replaced after every game.

Next is travel. Football teams have a lot of people and a lot of stuff so you can’t just book a few tickets on Southwest and go. You can likely still fly commercial but it’s going to cost money to fly 60+ people and the equipment. Then you have hotel costs, meals or per diem for everyone and transportation on the road.

Now, you can mitigate those costs by playing in one city but that’s only going to last a year or two before you gotta move out.

And this isn’t even getting into things like coaching salaries, training facilities, front office staff, marketing staff etc. Plus, if you start succeeding costs are to going up because people will want raises and nicer stuff.

And after a year or two, the novelty is going to wear off. Attendance will go down, tv ratings will go down and sponsors will leave. Now, you have to fight to stay relevant in a crowded market and it all costs money.

[French Rage]

Honestly, I enjoyed the original XFL more than the NFL. I don't know why, but it was far more entertaining

Like, how? No one ever really made use of the new rules. It was just mediocre spring football.

[MichVandal]

If you’re only calculating player salaries in your business plan, you have a terrible business plan.

First of all, you need a place to play and that means a stadium. Any stadium they’re going to play at is going to cost a pretty penny and any attendance is likely not to going to recoup the cost since the options are a) an NFL stadium at extortion prices and the wonderful optics of NFL logos plastered everywhere, b) a college stadium with bench seating everywhere (meaning you can’t charge more than $20-25 a ticket), or c) an MLS stadium where they’ll be paying a high rent cost and for the grass to replaced after every game.

Next is travel. Football teams have a lot of people and a lot of stuff so you can’t just book a few tickets on Southwest and go. You can likely still fly commercial but it’s going to cost money to fly 60+ people and the equipment. Then you have hotel costs, meals or per diem for everyone and transportation on the road.

Now, you can mitigate those costs by playing in one city but that’s only going to last a year or two before you gotta move out.

And this isn’t even getting into things like coaching salaries, training facilities, front office staff, marketing staff etc. Plus, if you start succeeding costs are to going up because people will want raises and nicer stuff.

And after a year or two, the novelty is going to wear off. Attendance will go down, tv ratings will go down and sponsors will leave. Now, you have to fight to stay relevant in a crowded market and it all costs money.

Simple answer, you told me off from the soccer thread when I was bothered by the fact that MLS teams spent too much time and effort to be European as opposed to American (who is the freaking royalty in Salt Lake City???). So go watch your soccer, and let the XFL and USFL fail. It's pretty clear they are not trying to get your eyes. anyway.

BTW, I'm curious how you think tripling the player salaries is such a bad estimate.

First, even if my estimate is 100% low, it would still take a decade of expenses to get to one of your throw away billions.

Second, it's reported that Fox signed a $150M/3 year deal with the USFL. Given the TV income, I'd bet that my estimate is pretty darned close to expenses.

So it would take 20 years of 100M of expenses and $50M income to get to $1B of losses.

[MichVandal]

Like, how? No one ever really made use of the new rules. It was just mediocre spring football.

One thing that was nice- none of the players were primadonnas. The pay wasn't high enough. Which also meant that some even knew this was their only chance. So it was kinda like college football vs. NFL. And it didn't take itself so serious to not have any fun. Unlike the NoFunLeague.

[Jimjamesak]

Simple answer, you told me off from the soccer thread when I was bothered by the fact that MLS teams spent too much time and effort to be European as opposed to American (who is the freaking royalty in Salt Lake City???). So go watch your soccer, and let the XFL and USFL fail. It's pretty clear they are not trying to get your eyes. anyway.

BTW, I'm curious how you think tripling the player salaries is such a bad estimate.

First, even if my estimate is 100% low, it would still take a decade of expenses to get to one of your throw away billions.

Second, it's reported that Fox signed a $150M/3 year deal with the USFL. Given the TV income, I'd bet that my estimate is pretty darned close to expenses.

So it would take 20 years of 100M of expenses and $50M income to get to $1B of losses.

Given your responses my answer is pretty simple: You are severely underestimating the costs that go into starting up and running a sports league, let alone an expensive one like football.

Fox isn’t paying $50 million a year, Fox is an owner of the league.

The deal would receive an initial $200 million investment from Fox, with the goal of raising an additional $250 million from numerous wealthy investors in the future. This unprecedented amount of financing, coupled with a unique broadcast scenario with four nationally televised games per week, the city of Birmingham stands to reap vast economic benefits from the deal.

They’re raising nearly a half a billion dollars in funding just to get this off the ground, and that’s with them doing things on the cheap (playing in one city, low salaries, centralized management structure). What’s it going to cost to get them to year 5? Year 10?

And again, what’s the reception going to be when the novelty wears off? And how much is it going to cost to keep things fresh when the novelty does wear off?

[Kepler]

I do not think football will even survive into 2050, let along have competing leagues. Like bear baiting, it's just a turd to be flushed.

[Jimjamesak]

I do not think football will even survive into 2050, let along have competing leagues. Like bear baiting, it's just a turd to be flushed.

I think the NFL and college football will survive, anything with that much capital will, but it’ll look nothing like it is today.

As for other leagues, that’s what my whole spiel is about: what is the long term plan for any of these leagues? What’s the plan to get to Year 5, Year 10, Year 20?

[MichVandal]

Given your responses my answer is pretty simple: You are severely underestimating the costs that go into starting up and running a sports league, let alone an expensive one like football.

Fox isn’t paying $50 million a year, Fox is an owner of the league.



They’re raising nearly a half a billion dollars in funding just to get this off the ground, and that’s with them doing things on the cheap (playing in one city, low salaries, centralized management structure). What’s it going to cost to get them to year 5? Year 10?

And again, what’s the reception going to be when the novelty wears off? And how much is it going to cost to keep things fresh when the novelty does wear off?

If they get to year 5, they win. That should be pretty obvious. If there's a year 10, then there may be real discussions to tie to the NFL.

Again, even if I'm underestimating by 100%, it's still a long way from $1,000,000,000. And if the player salaries are as low as reported, I'm really not sure how you come close to $100M in just expenses- there's not enough salary between the players and other people + Travel to get near $100M right now.

Also, if it gets anywhere NEAR the expenses as one super star NFL player for each team, that would be a massive win. Anywhere near your expectations would have to be a massive win, as it will take some time to add up $100M of total expenses.

I can even add charter plane fights to and from each location with 5 hour fights at 50k/hour- or @250k/flight, $2M per weekend for all teams, $20M for the entire league season, that still leave $30M for all of the rest of the expenses. Which none of that will be needed for season one. Let alone a high estimate due to ~$30K/hr for a 737 (which is too big for a USFL team of 35) and the tiny issue that the teams are all WAY closer than a 5 hour flight apart from each other.

How about coming up with some alternative numbers instead of just saying I'm under estimating it? This is a $45k average salary league with 35 players. There's not much there to add up. My estimated salary was 30% higher than that, and then rounded up to $20M. For year 2, the $20M flight estimate is way to high, which leave $10M for the stadium.

Are you really worried that this will take eyes off of soccer or something? Not sure why you care if billionaires spend money like this. If it gives a chance to good college FB players when we see some real losers in the NFL, seems like an overall win.

[MichVandal]

I think the NFL and college football will survive, anything with that much capital will, but it’ll look nothing like it is today.

As for other leagues, that’s what my whole spiel is about: what is the long term plan for any of these leagues? What’s the plan to get to Year 5, Year 10, Year 20?

Clearly, to dominate the MLS.... That's the plan.