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116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er

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  • Booker has taken the lead in Kentucky with 12% of the vote in.
    Go Green! Go White! Go State!

    1966, 1986, 2007

    Go Tigers, Go Packers, Go Red Wings, Go Pistons

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    • Originally posted by Spartanforlife4 View Post
      Booker has taken the lead in Kentucky with 12% of the vote in.
      Wait?

      There's more than 54% in already. Do you mean 12% of the mail ins?

      Here is the NYT site.


      Last edited by Kepler; 06-25-2020, 02:12 PM.
      Cornell University
      National Champion 1967, 1970
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      • Originally posted by Kepler View Post

        Wait?

        There's more than 54% in already. Do you mean 12% of the mail ins?

        Here is the NYT site.

        WaPo has it at 12% of expected turnout.

        https://www.washingtonpost.com/elect...-live-results/
        Go Green! Go White! Go State!

        1966, 1986, 2007

        Go Tigers, Go Packers, Go Red Wings, Go Pistons

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        • Kentucky is not including any absentee ballots in any of its results. The results are for in-person voting only.

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          • Originally posted by psych View Post
            Kentucky is not including any absentee ballots in any of its results. The results are for in-person voting only.
            Oh. Wow, I don't know whether that's good or not. :-)
            Cornell University
            National Champion 1967, 1970
            ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
            Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

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            • https://***********/thehill/status/1276240570697089024

              "Sen. Tom Cotton on #DCstatehood: "Would you trust Mayor Bowser to keep Washington safe if she were given the powers of a governor? Would you trust Marion Barry?""

              The Dog Whistle is strong with this one...
              "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
              -aparch

              "Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
              -INCH

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              -ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007

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              • Originally posted by Handyman View Post
                https://***********/thehill/status/1276240570697089024

                "Sen. Tom Cotton on #DCstatehood: "Would you trust Mayor Bowser to keep Washington safe if she were given the powers of a governor? Would you trust Marion Barry?""

                The Dog Whistle is strong with this one...
                Neither of them got their son off the hook for killing a dog, so neither has the qualifications to be Governor.

                Cornell '04, Stanford '06


                KDR

                Rover Frenchy, Classic! Great post.
                iwh30 I wish I could be as smart as you. I really do you are the man
                gregg729 I just saw your sig, you do love having people revel in your "intelligence."
                Ritt18 you are the perfect representation of your alma mater.
                Miss Thundercat That's it, you win.
                TBA#2 I want to kill you and dance in your blood.
                DisplacedCornellian Hahaha. Thread over. Frenchy wins.

                Test to see if I can add this.

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                • "Well-rounded working-class", wink wink. https://***********/frankthorp/statu...37359965712386

                  Cornell '04, Stanford '06


                  KDR

                  Rover Frenchy, Classic! Great post.
                  iwh30 I wish I could be as smart as you. I really do you are the man
                  gregg729 I just saw your sig, you do love having people revel in your "intelligence."
                  Ritt18 you are the perfect representation of your alma mater.
                  Miss Thundercat That's it, you win.
                  TBA#2 I want to kill you and dance in your blood.
                  DisplacedCornellian Hahaha. Thread over. Frenchy wins.

                  Test to see if I can add this.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Kepler View Post

                    Oh. Wow, I don't know whether that's good or not. :-)
                    Some social media posts have said it could help McGrath because early voting has been open for a long time, and Booker didn’t really make his name known until the protests. Still, I can’t imagine that many people voted nearly a month earlier.
                    Go Green! Go White! Go State!

                    1966, 1986, 2007

                    Go Tigers, Go Packers, Go Red Wings, Go Pistons

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Spartanforlife4 View Post

                      Some social media posts have said it could help McGrath because early voting has been open for a long time, and Booker didn’t really make his name known until the protests. Still, I can’t imagine that many people voted nearly a month earlier.
                      I heard an interesting theory that Booker is big in Louisville but McGrath is big in Lexington. I assume because Louisville is poorer (rich Dems are socially liberal, poor Dems are across the board liberal).

                      But I'm not in KY and it's a very different world from VA.
                      Cornell University
                      National Champion 1967, 1970
                      ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                      Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

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                      • Originally posted by French Rage View Post
                        "Well-rounded working-class", wink wink. https://***********/frankthorp/statu...37359965712386
                        Yeah, wow.
                        Cornell University
                        National Champion 1967, 1970
                        ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                        Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Spartanforlife4 View Post

                          Some social media posts have said it could help McGrath because early voting has been open for a long time, and Booker didn’t really make his name known until the protests. Still, I can’t imagine that many people voted nearly a month earlier.
                          Purely anecdotal but when I lived in OR (mail-in only) I would vote the first day of the period so I could stop worrying about it.

                          Then again I always did homework the day it was assigned for the same reason (I am anxiety-averse) and my casual understanding is not everybody does that.
                          Cornell University
                          National Champion 1967, 1970
                          ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                          Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

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                          • Hard to say who is ahead right now in Kentucky. There’s never been this many absentee ballots before, so it’s hard to say who took advantage of it. I’d lean towards McGrath for a number of reasons. Booker is big in Louisville because he’s from there and that’s where the majority of the African-American population lives in Kentucky. His campaign said he’ll win by a few points if the majority of the absentee ballots are from the Louisville area. From what I have read, election officials expect 90% of the 868,000 absentee ballots to be returned on time (they had something like 530,000 returned as of Tuesday- as long as they’re postmarked by Tuesday, they’re counted). Only 170,000 or so of those were from Jefferson County (Louisville). Again, hard to say how this will turn out. I will say I’m shocked at the counties Booker is ahead in for in-person voting, although, for obvious reasons, it’s a much smaller sample size than normal.
                            Last edited by psych; 06-26-2020, 11:16 AM.

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                            • Assuming Jones (AL) loses, we need +4 with the Prez. Where we at?

                              AZ: looks good.
                              CO: looks good.
                              GA regular: looks like a stretch.
                              GA special: I can't find any polling at all.
                              ME: looks confused.
                              NC: looks possible.
                              Cornell University
                              National Champion 1967, 1970
                              ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                              Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                                Assuming Jones (AL) loses, we need +4 with the Prez. Where we at?

                                AZ: looks good.
                                CO: looks good.
                                GA regular: looks like a stretch.
                                GA special: I can't find any polling at all.
                                ME: looks confused.
                                NC: looks possible.
                                I think for the GA special election, it will almost certainly go to a runoff in early January 2021 (unless someone gets 50% + 1). That's probably why there hasn't been a whole lot of polling.

                                Arizona and Colorado look like they are on the right track. That means we need to pick up 2 out of: Iowa, Maine, Montana, and/or North Carolina. My guess is if we win one of the Georgias, we take 3+ out of the previous group.

                                As you assumed, there is no chance Jones wins. So, we are looking at anywhere from 48-53 seats. 2022 is also Democrat-friendly in the Senate.
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