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116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er

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  • Fighting Sioux 23
    replied
    Originally posted by Kepler View Post
    Assuming Jones (AL) loses, we need +4 with the Prez. Where we at?

    AZ: looks good.
    CO: looks good.
    GA regular: looks like a stretch.
    GA special: I can't find any polling at all.
    ME: looks confused.
    NC: looks possible.
    I think for the GA special election, it will almost certainly go to a runoff in early January 2021 (unless someone gets 50% + 1). That's probably why there hasn't been a whole lot of polling.

    Arizona and Colorado look like they are on the right track. That means we need to pick up 2 out of: Iowa, Maine, Montana, and/or North Carolina. My guess is if we win one of the Georgias, we take 3+ out of the previous group.

    As you assumed, there is no chance Jones wins. So, we are looking at anywhere from 48-53 seats. 2022 is also Democrat-friendly in the Senate.

    Leave a comment:


  • Kepler
    replied
    Assuming Jones (AL) loses, we need +4 with the Prez. Where we at?

    AZ: looks good.
    CO: looks good.
    GA regular: looks like a stretch.
    GA special: I can't find any polling at all.
    ME: looks confused.
    NC: looks possible.

    Leave a comment:


  • psych
    replied
    Hard to say who is ahead right now in Kentucky. There’s never been this many absentee ballots before, so it’s hard to say who took advantage of it. I’d lean towards McGrath for a number of reasons. Booker is big in Louisville because he’s from there and that’s where the majority of the African-American population lives in Kentucky. His campaign said he’ll win by a few points if the majority of the absentee ballots are from the Louisville area. From what I have read, election officials expect 90% of the 868,000 absentee ballots to be returned on time (they had something like 530,000 returned as of Tuesday- as long as they’re postmarked by Tuesday, they’re counted). Only 170,000 or so of those were from Jefferson County (Louisville). Again, hard to say how this will turn out. I will say I’m shocked at the counties Booker is ahead in for in-person voting, although, for obvious reasons, it’s a much smaller sample size than normal.
    Last edited by psych; 06-26-2020, 12:16 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • Kepler
    replied
    Originally posted by Spartanforlife4 View Post

    Some social media posts have said it could help McGrath because early voting has been open for a long time, and Booker didn’t really make his name known until the protests. Still, I can’t imagine that many people voted nearly a month earlier.
    Purely anecdotal but when I lived in OR (mail-in only) I would vote the first day of the period so I could stop worrying about it.

    Then again I always did homework the day it was assigned for the same reason (I am anxiety-averse) and my casual understanding is not everybody does that.

    Leave a comment:


  • Kepler
    replied
    Originally posted by French Rage View Post
    "Well-rounded working-class", wink wink. https://twitter.com/frankthorp/statu...37359965712386
    Yeah, wow.

    Leave a comment:


  • Kepler
    replied
    Originally posted by Spartanforlife4 View Post

    Some social media posts have said it could help McGrath because early voting has been open for a long time, and Booker didn’t really make his name known until the protests. Still, I can’t imagine that many people voted nearly a month earlier.
    I heard an interesting theory that Booker is big in Louisville but McGrath is big in Lexington. I assume because Louisville is poorer (rich Dems are socially liberal, poor Dems are across the board liberal).

    But I'm not in KY and it's a very different world from VA.

    Leave a comment:


  • Spartanforlife4
    replied
    Originally posted by Kepler View Post

    Oh. Wow, I don't know whether that's good or not. :-)
    Some social media posts have said it could help McGrath because early voting has been open for a long time, and Booker didn’t really make his name known until the protests. Still, I can’t imagine that many people voted nearly a month earlier.

    Leave a comment:


  • French Rage
    replied
    "Well-rounded working-class", wink wink. https://twitter.com/frankthorp/statu...37359965712386

    Leave a comment:


  • French Rage
    replied
    Originally posted by Handyman View Post
    https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1276240570697089024

    "Sen. Tom Cotton on #DCstatehood: "Would you trust Mayor Bowser to keep Washington safe if she were given the powers of a governor? Would you trust Marion Barry?""

    The Dog Whistle is strong with this one...
    Neither of them got their son off the hook for killing a dog, so neither has the qualifications to be Governor.

    Leave a comment:


  • Handyman
    replied
    https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1276240570697089024

    "Sen. Tom Cotton on #DCstatehood: "Would you trust Mayor Bowser to keep Washington safe if she were given the powers of a governor? Would you trust Marion Barry?""

    The Dog Whistle is strong with this one...

    Leave a comment:


  • Kepler
    replied
    Originally posted by psych View Post
    Kentucky is not including any absentee ballots in any of its results. The results are for in-person voting only.
    Oh. Wow, I don't know whether that's good or not. :-)

    Leave a comment:


  • psych
    replied
    Kentucky is not including any absentee ballots in any of its results. The results are for in-person voting only.

    Leave a comment:


  • Spartanforlife4
    replied
    Originally posted by Kepler View Post

    Wait?

    There's more than 54% in already. Do you mean 12% of the mail ins?

    Here is the NYT site.

    WaPo has it at 12% of expected turnout.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/elect...-live-results/

    Leave a comment:


  • Kepler
    replied
    Originally posted by Spartanforlife4 View Post
    Booker has taken the lead in Kentucky with 12% of the vote in.
    Wait?

    There's more than 54% in already. Do you mean 12% of the mail ins?

    Here is the NYT site.


    Last edited by Kepler; 06-25-2020, 03:12 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • Spartanforlife4
    replied
    Booker has taken the lead in Kentucky with 12% of the vote in.

    Leave a comment:

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