116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er

[mookie1995]

Re: 116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er

Kennebunkport.

that is in new hampshire

[Kepler]

Re: 116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er

Put yourself in the position of a Republican Senator for a moment. Now, yes, you are craven and vicious and quite like not very bright, however, what do you do now? You are clearly on the wrong side of history. The fever will break someday and if you vote to shut down witnesses and give Dump his sham acquittal you will become an unsavory joke:


Fig. 1 Mitch McConnell in an unguarded moment

[Rover]

Re: 116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er

Put yourself in the position of a Republican Senator for a moment. Now, yes, you are craven and vicious and quite like not very bright, however, what do you do now? You are clearly on the wrong side of history. The fever will break someday and if you vote to shut down witnesses and give Dump his sham acquittal you will become an unsavory joke:


Fig. 1 Mitch McConnell in an unguarded moment

You know, I don't think they're considering history. Its a cult. What other people think doesn't matter. At this point its all about maintaining their Senate majority.

However, as I've said before if Itch had any good cards to play he'd have played them already. This Bolton thing is a disaster. Blow it off and go for a quick acquittal only for his book to come out a month later or have Bolton testify about Chump's treason. This from a media savvy guy who's conservative nutter bona fides are beyond reproach.

Either way Gardner, Collins and McSally are in a bad position. Itch has to let Gardner and Collins vote in favor of hearing from Bolton, but he can't let Bolton testify or he loses all control of the situation to the point that even his friends in the national media won't be able to spin their coverage in his favor.

The full effect on impeachment isn't on Trump's approval ratings (which have a definite floor and ceiling) nor how close he gets to conviction (I'd be surprised if anybody votes in favor on the GOP side). Its if you start seeing the Ernst and Tillis races tightening as we get further into impeachment and its aftermath. Republicans can survive losing 3 Senate seats in Nov. They can't survive losing too much more than that to stay in the majority.

[bronconick]

Re: 116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er

Put yourself in the position of a Republican Senator for a moment. Now, yes, you are craven and vicious and quite like not very bright, however, what do you do now? You are clearly on the wrong side of history. The fever will break someday and if you vote to shut down witnesses and give Dump his sham acquittal you will become an unsavory joke:


Fig. 1 Mitch McConnell in an unguarded moment

If the fever breaks, you retire before you get slaughtered in an election. I don't think it will anytime soon

[Kepler]

Re: 116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er

If the fever breaks, you retire before you get slaughtered in an election. I don't think it will anytime soon

Fair point. There will always be a "think" tank, or the Republican Rubber Chicken Victimhood Tour of radio and Fox. There will always be a payday.

[Kepler]

Re: 116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er

You know, I don't think they're considering history. Its a cult. What other people think doesn't matter. At this point its all about maintaining their Senate majority.

However, as I've said before if Itch had any good cards to play he'd have played them already. This Bolton thing is a disaster. Blow it off and go for a quick acquittal only for his book to come out a month later or have Bolton testify about Chump's treason. This from a media savvy guy who's conservative nutter bona fides are beyond reproach.

Either way Gardner, Collins and McSally are in a bad position. Itch has to let Gardner and Collins vote in favor of hearing from Bolton, but he can't let Bolton testify or he loses all control of the situation to the point that even his friends in the national media won't be able to spin their coverage in his favor.

The full effect on impeachment isn't on Trump's approval ratings (which have a definite floor and ceiling) nor how close he gets to conviction (I'd be surprised if anybody votes in favor on the GOP side). Its if you start seeing the Ernst and Tillis races tightening as we get further into impeachment and its aftermath. Republicans can survive losing 3 Senate seats in Nov. They can't survive losing too much more than that to stay in the majority.

All excellent points.

We need 5 because AL is a loss. So: Gardner, Collins, McSally should be pick ups. Ernst and Tillis are the only other possibilities? Do we really need to sweep 3 toss-ups? I guess they aren't independent trials so there's that, but it still looks like long odds. Any chance with Perdue? I assume if we get Cornyn in a bind it's over anyway. Likewise if any other D gets into trouble we're f-cked.

[bronconick]

Re: 116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er

All excellent points.

We need 5 because AL is a loss. So: Gardner, Collins, McSally should be pick ups. Ernst and Tillis are the only other possibilities? Do we really need to sweep 3 toss-ups? I guess they aren't independent trials so there's that, but it still looks like long odds. Any chance with Perdue? I assume if we get Cornyn in a bind it's over anyway. Likewise if any other D gets into trouble we're f-cked.

I'd like Georgia a lot more if the state wasn't hard at work purging voter rolls

[Rover]

Re: 116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er

You need 4 seats. In order 1) Gardner (he's fuked), 2) McSally (really needs Chump to have a solid win), and 3) Collins. Need either Ernst or Tillis to offset Doug Jones expected loss in Alabama. That puts Senate at 50/50 so win Presidency and you have the majority. Frankly that's not bad to have a shot at 5 seats.

As far as Georgia goes I'd look at the open seat (interim Senator). Gov appointed a big donor instead of a long term cult member. She might be primaried by nutball Doug Collins (Georgia's answer to Jim Jordan) so that would certainly help things.

[Kepler]

Re: 116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er

You need 4 seats.

Ah, 3 net. I am an idiot. Thanks.

So, figure:

.95 CO
.75 ME
.70 AZ
-------
.50 IO
.50 NC
.30 GA

Run the top three (odds: 49.9%) and then pick off one of the bottom three. Figure the odds of a successful combination are about 33%. However, the trials are not independent (all politics is national) so the odds may be significantly higher.

[mookie1995]

Re: 116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er

You need 4 seats. In order 1) Gardner (he's fuked), 2) McSally (really needs Chump to have a solid win), and 3) Collins. Need either Ernst or Tillis to offset Doug Jones expected loss in Alabama. That puts Senate at 50/50 so win Presidency and you have the majority. Frankly that's not bad to have a shot at 5 seats..

except of course a R simple majority is a majority. even a D healthy majority is hit or miss at times

[Kepler]

Re: 116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er

except of course a R simple majority is a majority. even a D healthy majority is hit or miss at times

True, although maybe less so, now. Manchin is a problem, but I'm not sure there's anybody else who will go off the reservation on a whipped vote.

I would not be shocked if Manchin switches parties at some point. He has that sort of vibe to him, and WV is Mordor.

And just like that...

[Rover]

Re: 116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er

except of course a R simple majority is a majority. even a D healthy majority is hit or miss at times

I did get a kick out the sarcastic headlines after Idiot Scott Brown was elected in Mass: "Republicans take Senate: 41-59"

[BassAle]

Re: 116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er

True, although maybe less so, now. Manchin is a problem, but I'm not sure there's anybody else who will go off the reservation on a whipped vote.

I would not be shocked if Manchin switches parties at some point. He has that sort of vibe to him, and WV is Mordor.

And just like that...

I expect Manchin to vote for witnesses but not to vote to convict. We know Trumps not going to be convicted.

[Kepler]

Re: 116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er

So after much agonizing reappraisal I've dropped my support for abolishing the Senate in favor of adjusting the states to be more even in population. Break up the largest states; combine the smallest states. I like the idea of federated government. I think there’s a place for both a House and Senate. I like the idea of cyclical 6 year terms that don’t all come due together to mitigate a wildcard like Dump.

33 states are between 12M and 2M.

Here then is my plan:

Divide CA (40M) into 4 (+3)
Divide TX (29M) into 3 (+2)
Divide FL (22M) into 3 (+2)
Divide NY (19M) into 3 (+2)
Add PR (+1)

Combine: WY (.6), ND (.7), SD (.9), MT (1.1), ID (1.8) (-4)
Combine: VT (.6), ME (1.3), NH (1.4) (-2)
Combine: AK (.7) and HI (1.4) (-1)
Combine: DE (1), DC (.7), and MD (-1)
Combine: RI (1.1) and CT (-1)
Combine: WV (1.8) and VA (-1)

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Re: 116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er

This is notable: GOP Senators up in ‘20 are telling colleagues that impeachment is hurting their chances of being re-elected, and they want to shut down the trial to save themselves. https://t.co/SJrkrgMf9s

— Jon Favreau (@jonfavs) January 29, 2020