US Foreign Policy 3.0: We're The Mets of International Diplomacy

[Kepler]

However, Mitch, Rand and Donald were not banned.

That's only fair. With wire transfers embargoed how else are they going to pick up their checks?

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Kissinger is preaching appeasement now. Figures.

[Kepler]

Kissinger is preaching appeasement now. Figures.

That's on brand. In International Realism, you trade the rights of powerless nations to insulate powerful nations from inconvenience. So, you oppose Finland joining NATO for fear of alienating Russia. In Liberalism, you trade the rights of powerless people to insulate powerful people from inconvenience. So, you oppose BLM for fear of alienating Middle America.

To his credit, Kissinger is not a hypocrite. He never pretended he was anything else -- his hero is Metternich. And he does say the difference is in the latter case the worst you risk is internal social upheaval, whereas in the former you risk nuclear annihilation. There is something to that.

[Kepler]

The gentle art of editorializing through file photo selection.

Vladimir Putin has appointed his ex-bodyguard to become Russia’s new “Emergencies Minister” after the last person to hold the office fell 90 feet to his death down a waterfall.

[aparch]

Oh look, Russia would like "The West" to lift sanctions due to a looming food crisis, yet continues to commit genocide on Ukraine without a hint of irony.

#UPDATE Moscow is ready to make a "significant contribution" to averting a looming food crisis if the West lifts sanctions imposed on Russia over Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin said in a telephone call with Italy's Prime Minister Mario Draghi https://t.co/O3Av33GFTu https://t.co/dhTOH4TThS

[Kepler]

Buncha guys bout to fall out a window.

[LynahFan]

Waterfalls are the new windows.

[Kepler]

Waterfalls are the new wincows.

[mookie1995]

Waterfalls are the new wincows.

Don’t go chasing waterfalls

[Kepler]

Ukraine broadcasting into Russia:

“...where [they] are throwing you to the slaughter, and it’s unlikely you'll survive. Ukrainians are ready to defend their homes and families until the last. Think about your families, too. Your families are in need of living and healthy fathers. Husbands and sons are needed at home. You weren’t given life to execute the criminal orders of Putin's regime. Save your life and future. Refuse to participate in bloody Putin's war. Lay down your weapons for the sake of your safe and peaceful future.”

We should do this in the red states.

[dxmnkd316]

As expected. Map of Russian casualties by region in Russia.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/stat...4VhG8BOHfsad1w

[rufus]

As expected. Map of Russian casualties by region in Russia.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/stat...4VhG8BOHfsad1w

"Take the white trash first, that's always the way"

[Kepler]

As expected. Map of Russian casualties by region in Russia.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/stat...4VhG8BOHfsad1w

I assume we do the same thing.

Every little bit helps.

[Kepler]

ISW decries Russian tactics as worse than a crime, a blunder:

Russian President Vladimir Putin is inflicting unspeakable suffering on Ukrainians and demanding horrible sacrifices of his own people in an effort to seize a city that does not merit the cost, even for him.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine that aimed to seize and occupy the entire country has become a desperate and bloody offensive to capture a single city in the east while defending important but limited gains in the south and east. Ukraine has twice forced Putin to define down his military objectives. Ukraine defeated Russia in the Battle of Kyiv, forcing Putin to reduce his subsequent military objectives to seizing Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine stopped him from achieving that aim as well, forcing him to focus on completing the seizure of Luhansk Oblast alone. Putin is now hurling men and munitions at the last remaining major population center in that oblast, Severodonetsk, as if taking it would win the war for the Kremlin. He is wrong. When the Battle of Severodonetsk ends, regardless of which side holds the city, the Russian offensive at the operational and strategic levels will likely have culminated, giving Ukraine the chance to restart its operational-level counteroffensives to push Russian forces back.

Russian forces are assaulting Severdonetsk even though they have not yet encircled it. They are making territorial gains and may succeed in taking the city and areas further west. The Ukrainian military is facing the most serious challenge it has encountered since the isolation of the Azovstal Plant in Mariupol and may well suffer a significant tactical defeat in the coming days if Severodonetsk falls, although such an outcome is by no means certain, and the Russian attacks may well stall again.

The Russians are paying a price for their current tactical success that is out of proportion to any real operational or strategic benefit they can hope to receive. Severodonetsk itself is important at this stage in the war primarily because it is the last significant population center in Luhansk Oblast that the Russians do not control. Seizing it will let Moscow declare that it has secured Luhansk Oblast fully but will give Russia no other significant military or economic benefit. This is especially true because Russian forces are destroying the city as they assault it and will control its rubble if they capture it. Taking Severodonetsk can open a Russian ground line of communication (GLOC) to support operations to the west, but the Russians have failed to secure much more advantageous GLOCs from Izyum partly because they have concentrated so much on Severodonetsk.

The Russians continue to make extremely limited progress in their efforts to gain control of the unoccupied areas of Donetsk Oblast, meanwhile. Russian troops have struggled to penetrate the pre-February 24 line of contact for weeks, while Russian offensive operations from Izyum to the south remain largely stalled. The seizure of Severodonetsk could only assist in the conquest of the rest of Donetsk Oblast if it gave the Russians momentum on which to build successive operations, but the Battle of Severdonetsk will most likely preclude continued large-scale Russian offensive operations.

Russian progress around Severdonetsk results largely from the fact that Moscow has concentrated forces, equipment, and materiel drawn from all other axes on this one objective. Russian troops have been unable to make progress on any other axes for weeks and have largely not even tried to do so. Ukrainian defenders have inflicted fearful casualties on the Russian attackers around Severodonetsk even so. Moscow will not be able to recoup large amounts of effective combat power even if it seizes Severdonetsk, because it is expending that combat power frivolously on taking the city.

Ukrainian forces are also suffering serious losses in the Battle of Severodonetsk, as are Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure. The Russians have concentrated a much higher proportion of their available offensive combat power to take Severodonetsk than the Ukrainians, however, shaping the attrition gradient generally in Kyiv’s favor. The Ukrainians continue to receive supplies and materiel from their allies as well, however slow and limited that flow may be. The Russians, in contrast, continue to manifest clear signs that they are burning through their available reserves of manpower and materiel with no reason to expect relief in the coming months.

Evidence of eroding military professionalism in the Russian officer corps is mounting. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russian commanders are attempting to preserve military equipment by forbidding drivers from evacuating wounded servicemen or providing supplies to units that have advanced too far.[1] Refusing to risk equipment to evacuate wounded personnel on the battlefield—other than in extraordinary circumstances—is a remarkable violation of core principles of military professionalism. Such behavior can have serious impacts on morale and the willingness of soldiers to fight and risk getting injured beyond their own defensive lines. ISW cannot independently confirm the GUR’s report, but commentary by Russian milbloggers offers some circumstantial support for it. Russian milblogger Alexander Zhychkovskiy criticized the Russian military command’s disregard for reservists on the deprioritized Zaporizhia Oblast front. Zhychkovskiy reported that Russian commanders trapped lightly-equipped infantry units in areas of intense Ukrainian artillery fire without significant artillery support and did not rotate other units through those areas to relieve them.[2] Zhychkovskiy noted that Russian commanders are responsible for high losses and cases of insanity among servicemen. Another milblogger, Alexander Khodarkovsky, said that Russian commanders are not sending reinforcements in a timely matter, preventing Russian forces from resting between ground assaults.[3]

Waning professionalism among Russia’s officers could present Ukrainian forces with opportunities. Russian morale, already low, may drop further if such behavior is widespread and continues. If Russian troops stuck on secondary axes lose their will to fight as the Battle for Severdonetsk consumes much of the available Russian offensive combat power, Ukraine may have a chance to launch significant counteroffensives with good prospects for success. That prospect is uncertain, and Ukraine may not have the ability to take advantage of an opportunity even if it presents itself, but the current pattern of Russian operations is generating serious vulnerabilities that Kyiv will likely attempt to exploit.

[dxmnkd316]

It really is remarkable to watch a (former?) superpower lose this much, this quickly.