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117th Congress: DEMS IN DISARRAY!!!111!!

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  • Originally posted by St. Clown View Post

    Well, I'm thinking they could both be replaced with absolute crackpots, due to who they represent.

    To me, it just speaks more than ever that the DNC needs to work exceptionally hard to make Manchin irrelevant this mid-term; get enough seats in the majority (3 more?) and they won't have to make him the linchpin that he's become today.
    I think if the Dems keep it 50-50 it will be a hell of an effort. Three seats GOP has a good shot at and only a couple the Dems realistically could flip. One thing they should do is empower local officials and don’t dictate too much from Washington.
    Originally posted by BobbyBrady
    Crosby probably wouldn't even be on BC's top two lines next year

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    • Originally posted by Drew S. View Post

      I think if the Dems keep it 50-50 it will be a hell of an effort. Three seats GOP has a good shot at and only a couple the Dems realistically could flip. One thing they should do is empower local officials and don’t dictate too much from Washington.
      That seems to go against everything I have read...
      "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
      -aparch

      "Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
      -INCH

      Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
      -ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007

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      • Originally posted by Handyman View Post
        https://***********/USProgressives/s...71046095593473



        The CBOs "analysis" of the minimum wage portion shows that the expected "losses" arent that bad and the CBO is ignoring a lot of the factors.
        You mean like our panel of economics experts here on Cafe?

        I'm sure the losses aren't that bad, assuming you're not one of the 1.4 million.
        That community is already in the process of dissolution where each man begins to eye his neighbor as a possible enemy, where non-conformity with the accepted creed, political as well as religious, is a mark of disaffection; where denunciation, without specification or backing, takes the place of evidence; where orthodoxy chokes freedom of dissent; where faith in the eventual supremacy of reason has become so timid that we dare not enter our convictions in the open lists, to win or lose.

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        • Originally posted by Handyman View Post

          That seems to go against everything I have read...
          Me too. 34 seats up, 20 GOP, 14 Dem.

          GOP targets:

          CO Bennet
          NV Cortez Masto
          NH Hassan
          AZ Kelly
          GA Warnock


          Dem targets:

          PA open (Toomey)
          WI RoJo
          FL Rubio
          IA Grassley
          NC open (Burr)
          OH open (Portman)

          Midterm elections usually favor the non-White House party but who knows since we are going through a full-bore realignment?
          Last edited by Kepler; 02-09-2021, 09:46 AM.
          Cornell University
          National Champion 1967, 1970
          ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
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          • Originally posted by Kepler View Post

            Me too. 34 seats up, 20 GOP, 14 Dem.

            GOP targets:

            CO Bennet
            NV Cortez Masto
            NH Hassan
            AZ Kelly
            GA Warnock


            Dem targets:

            PA open (Toomey)
            WI RoJo
            FL Rubio
            IA Grassley
            NC open (Burr)
            OH open (Portman)

            Midterm elections usually favor the non-White House party but who knows since we are going through a full-bore realignment?
            I’d guess the closest races will be PA, GA, NC, AZ, WI, and NH. Fetterman seems like a solid candidate in PA. Jackson in NC seems like a Cal Cunningham, maybe without the baggage. Tim Ryan sounds likely to go for it in OH, but I think OH may be out of reach for us now.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by psych View Post

              I’d guess the closest races will be PA, GA, NC, AZ, WI, and NH. Fetterman seems like a solid candidate in PA. Jackson in NC seems like a Cal Cunningham, maybe without the baggage. Tim Ryan sounds likely to go for it in OH, but I think OH may be out of reach for us now.
              Rumor is Sununu runs in NH which takes that off the table -- that family's machine has NH locked up tight.

              May all come down to the cheeseheads whether we can hold the Senate.

              It's possible of course that post-Dump, with indictments being handed down every other Friday, the GOP implodes and we get a Dem wave. But it's just as likely that post-Dump America falls asleep again and the Nazis creep back.
              Cornell University
              National Champion 1967, 1970
              ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
              Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

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              • Originally posted by Kepler View Post

                Rumor is Sununu runs in NH which takes that off the table -- that family's machine has NH locked up tight.

                May all come down to the cheeseheads whether we can hold the Senate.

                It's possible of course that post-Dump, with indictments being handed down every other Friday, the GOP implodes and we get a Dem wave. But it's just as likely that post-Dump America falls asleep again and the Nazis creep back.
                A Sununu ran (and lost) in 2008 so I wouldn't call it a lost cause.
                "I went over the facts in my head, and admired how much uglier the situation had just become. Over the years I've learned that ignorance is more than just bliss. It's freaking orgasmic ecstasy".- Harry Dresden, Blood Rites


                Western Michigan Bronco Hockey- 2012 Mason Cup Champions

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                • Originally posted by SJHovey View Post

                  You mean like our panel of economics experts here on Cafe?

                  I'm sure the losses aren't that bad, assuming you're not one of the 1.4 million.
                  That is part of the problem with the CBO...they don't define what the 1.4 million are. A solid percentage of that will be secondary/supplemental employment. The "loss" will be offset by the higher income at their primary job. (in theory)

                  The tip off is that it pulls almost a million out of poverty. The ones that likely would be pulled out of poverty would have the jobs at risk of being cut.

                  The last 2 GOP administrations killed way more jobs than that...and in way less time.

                  The CBO is making these predictions based on assumptions, which is fine. Problem is they are ignoring that in practice it has almost never worked out like they are predicting. Old jobs that can't afford to pay employees are Darwined out and new jobs spring up.
                  "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
                  -aparch

                  "Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
                  -INCH

                  Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
                  -ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Kepler View Post

                    Rumor is Sununu runs in NH which takes that off the table -- that family's machine has NH locked up tight.

                    May all come down to the cheeseheads whether we can hold the Senate.

                    It's possible of course that post-Dump, with indictments being handed down every other Friday, the GOP implodes and we get a Dem wave. But it's just as likely that post-Dump America falls asleep again and the Nazis creep back.
                    Hassan is a strong incumbent for Democrats. If Sununu jumps to the Senate, that’d be a marquee race. Rumor has it Ayotte is looking at running again too.
                    RoJo smoked Feingold in 2016. Maybe Ron Kind gives up his seat and runs for Senate? That’d almost certainly turn his seat red, but he appears like he has some kind of crossover appeal.
                    Your last sentence is definitely a possibility. It’s hard to stay vigilant, and not everyone who voted against Trump is going to stay vigilant. That said, not everyone who voted for Trump is going to care about politics post-Trump either. I love watching how this sh-t shapes up and shakes out.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by psych View Post

                      I’d guess the closest races will be PA, GA, NC, AZ, WI, and NH. Fetterman seems like a solid candidate in PA. Jackson in NC seems like a Cal Cunningham, maybe without the baggage. Tim Ryan sounds likely to go for it in OH, but I think OH may be out of reach for us now.
                      RIGHT NOW I don't see Kelly losing against whatever Trumper the AZGOP puts up. Warnock will end up closer (unless he ends up going against Perdue...then its a cake walk) but I think the larger counties and the fact like Abrams is possibly on the ticket for Governor will help him there.

                      The rest who knows. I would like to think WI and PA are so annoyed with what the GOP tried to pull that they would be motivated to vote Dem but it is just so hard to know. The rest is even harder to figure out.
                      "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
                      -aparch

                      "Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
                      -INCH

                      Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
                      -ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by psych View Post


                        Your last sentence is definitely a possibility. It’s hard to stay vigilant, and not everyone who voted against Trump is going to stay vigilant. That said, not everyone who voted for Trump is going to care about politics post-Trump either. I love watching how this sh-t shapes up and shakes out.
                        This right here is the key and why we just can't predict anything. Theoretically if the Dems stay engaged then 2022 could be like 2018 because Trump voters tend to stay home when he isn't on the ticket. (ask Georgia!) If the Dems go lame then all bets are off. That is what Harrison needs to do...focus on keeping everyone engaged and in the fight. even if that means I need to still get 75k emails a week.
                        "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
                        -aparch

                        "Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
                        -INCH

                        Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
                        -ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Handyman View Post

                          That is part of the problem with the CBO...they don't define what the 1.4 million are. A solid percentage of that will be secondary/supplemental employment. The "loss" will be offset by the higher income at their primary job. (in theory)

                          The tip off is that it pulls almost a million out of poverty. The ones that likely would be pulled out of poverty would have the jobs at risk of being cut.

                          The last 2 GOP administrations killed way more jobs than that...and in way less time.

                          The CBO is making these predictions based on assumptions, which is fine. Problem is they are ignoring that in practice it has almost never worked out like they are predicting. Old jobs that can't afford to pay employees are Darwined out and new jobs spring up.
                          A lot of this. I read most of the report from your link and the scary factor was greatly alleviated by the end. Possibly 1.4 million lose out but the CBO suggests a measurable % of those were going to be lost regardless, it's possible another 500k are created, net revenues likely increase because most earning $15 an hour are spending nearly all of their disposable income, there could be a resurgence in some industries in which as of now they cannot find qualified applicants at $9 an hour but at $15 that improves and in turn improves productivity, qualify of work, etc.

                          All "social programs" have a cost but the gains should be plentiful.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by bronconick View Post

                            A Sununu ran (and lost) in 2008 so I wouldn't call it a lost cause.
                            I didn't know that. That's good.
                            Cornell University
                            National Champion 1967, 1970
                            ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                            Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

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                            • Originally posted by Kepler View Post

                              Me too. 34 seats up, 20 GOP, 14 Dem.

                              GOP targets:

                              CO Bennet
                              NV Cortez Masto
                              NH Hassan
                              AZ Kelly
                              GA Warnock


                              Dem targets:

                              PA open (Toomey)
                              WI RoJo
                              FL Rubio
                              IA Grassley
                              NC open (Burr)
                              OH open (Portman)

                              Midterm elections usually favor the non-White House party but who knows since we are going through a full-bore realignment?
                              Warnock is going to be a fight to keep. Others seem relatively safe.

                              PA and WI seem like possible flips. The rest are unlikely at best. I’m not sure I see what you guys are seeing that makes this look like a D year.
                              Code:
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                              College Hockey 6       College Football 0
                              BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                              Originally posted by SanTropez
                              May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                              Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                              I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                              Originally posted by Kepler
                              When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                              He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post

                                Warnock is going to be a fight to keep. Others seem relatively safe.

                                PA and WI seem like possible flips. The rest are unlikely at best. I’m not sure I see what you guys are seeing that makes this look like a D year.
                                I don't see it as a D year. I just don't see it as DOOOOM!

                                I think it will be a wash.
                                Cornell University
                                National Champion 1967, 1970
                                ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                                Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

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