117th Congress: DEMS IN DISARRAY!!!111!!

[ScoobyDoo]

Manchin and Susan Collins are no better than Turtle Boy. All they care about is their jobs. The real heroes are the lawmakers that lost their jobs voting for the Affordable Care Act. Being in Congress isn't about going back, it's about what you do while you are there.

Look at yesterday's vote. Most of the 45 Republicans who voted to dismiss the impeachment trial we're voting to save their jobs, not their conscience. Of course there is about 25 of them, Ron Johnson for example, that are lost forever. Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, etc.

[psych]

for letting the Repubican's paint democrats as coastal elitists that look down on the coal miners of West Virginia and don't care about them

Love this message board, but based on the stuff written here about red states, southern states, etc., I don’t think it was hard for Republicans to achieve that goal. No, of course the GOP doesn’t care about those people either.

[Handyman]

Manchin is better than any Republican, especially right now. He’s going to allow for bigger, better things than a 51R/49D Senate. We all wish our right flank was not as conservative as Manchin, but it is. I think most of us hoped for 52D/48R or when 53D/47R, so that publicly staunch defenders of the filibuster, like Manchin and Sinema, were relatively worthless, especially with moderate Senators like Tester saying he would consider ending the filibuster if conditions were right.
With “moderate” senators Collins and Romney rejecting the $1.9 trillion outright, the Covid relief bill will likely have to be wrapped into the reconciliation process as well. With Bernie as the Senate Budget Committee chairman, I’m sure he’ll come up with some good stuff for both reconciliation bills Democrats have use of this year. Definitely not ideal, but more power than we’ve had since 2009.

Getting COVID relief passed is important (though it is going to end up watered down Biden already is backing off a bit which is fine) but that is 1 of a dozen things that need to get done and outside of judges none of it will. You can't do Reconciliation for the VRA and the GOP is never going to support that. (meaning the suppression continues) You likely can't do Reconciliation for anything climate related and the GOP will block that. There is no way to do Reconciliation for beefing up the ACA most likely so that is DOA. 51/50 means most Biden's agenda dies on the vine because his own people can't be bothered to do what the majority of the voters are asking them to do.

If you want to break it down statistically yes Manchin as a barely Dem is better than a GOPer. So what? If you break it down statistically the Twins are usually one of the better teams in the MLB. They still never do anything when the games start to really matter. If all things are equal and the rules are always being used fairly that would be fine. But this isn't a vacuum we live in the real world. A world where you have to be willing to fight to the death for what you believe. For all the hatred Mitch gets (and rightfully so) he and his people get it. You win with action not ideas. He doesn't even hide it he is out to make sure the Dems lose everything. Of course he doesn't have to they will stop themselves, but even so he is always fighting like his life is on the line. He plays like he always has a mandate. The Dems never play that way and so they have lost before it even starts. Manchin and Sinema being Dems doesn't matter because they are going to make sure most Dem policies never get passed. But hey...those stats amirite?

This is going to be two years of nothing so they might as well just get through as many judges as they can because they are on a short clock. I want to believe the Dems will do better with a favorable map but 2 years of getting nothing done will likely depress the Dem turnout. Why should we throw our money, time and energy at elections when the only ones they seem to have consequences for are us?

[psych]

Getting COVID relief passed is important (though it is going to end up watered down Biden already is backing off a bit which is fine) but that is 1 of a dozen things that need to get done and outside of judges none of it will. You can't do Reconciliation for the VRA and the GOP is never going to support that. (meaning the suppression continues) You likely can't do Reconciliation for anything climate related and the GOP will block that. There is no way to do Reconciliation for beefing up the ACA most likely so that is DOA. 51/50 means most Biden's agenda dies on the vine because his own people can't be bothered to do what the majority of the voters are asking them to do.

If you want to break it down statistically yes Manchin as a barely Dem is better than a GOPer. So what? If you break it down statistically the Twins are usually one of the better teams in the MLB. They still never do anything when the games start to really matter. If all things are equal and the rules are always being used fairly that would be fine. But this isn't a vacuum we live in the real world. A world where you have to be willing to fight to the death for what you believe. For all the hatred Mitch gets (and rightfully so) he and his people get it. You win with action not ideas. He doesn't even hide it he is out to make sure the Dems lose everything. Of course he doesn't have to they will stop themselves, but even so he is always fighting like his life is on the line. He plays like he always has a mandate. The Dems never play that way and so they have lost before it even starts. Manchin and Sinema being Dems doesn't matter because they are going to make sure most Dem policies never get passed. But hey...those stats amirite?

This is going to be two years of nothing so they might as well just get through as many judges as they can because they are on a short clock. I want to believe the Dems will do better with a favorable map but 2 years of getting nothing done will likely depress the Dem turnout. Why should we throw our money, time and energy at elections when the only ones they seem to have consequences for are us?

I’m aware you can’t do anything VRA with budget reconciliation. It’s called “budget” for a reason. Climate change, I’m not so sure. They might be able to push climate change through incentivizing certain businesses. With renewable energy cheaper than its ever been before, they might be able to find a way to save money outside the 10 year budget window, and keep it relevant enough that the senate parliamentarian won’t override it.
This Senate isn’t ideal. We didn’t get the makeup we wanted. But, we are in the majority, even if the results we achieve are the Twins in the playoffs, rather than the Yankees.

[Handyman]

You keep writing as if we disagree. We don't. But the bottom line isn't what to do about it. We can't change Manchin so we have to change his calculation and make it more uncomfortable for him to prevaricate and play to his derps. The guy who can do that is Schumer. We can't change Schumer so we have to change his calculation, and so on...

Right but we can't. Being threatened by a bloodthirsty mob and watching his colleagues excuse it isn't changing Manchin's calculation. That is the point. You pretend like something someone says or does will make him all of a sudden care. He won't. He doesn't even mince words about it. To him none of this matters and never will. He was fine with the status quo before the run offs.

Hell most Senators would be jumping for joy...he and Sinema are now the two most powerful people in the Senate! If they choose to nuke the filibuster on specific bills (hell just do it once for the threat) they can get everything they want. Every bill will have pork for Arizona and WV and they will rake in the votes. The Fredumbers got that, Collins and Murkowski got that...Manchin and Sinema don't. That is why they were unequivocal in their statements. No calculus is going to change that.

They basically sent Schumer out there with both hands tied behind his back. He is every QB on a team with no running game and a mediocre defense so they have to throw it 50 times a game.

[SJHovey]

Getting COVID relief passed is important (though it is going to end up watered down Biden already is backing off a bit which is fine) but that is 1 of a dozen things that need to get done and outside of judges none of it will. You can't do Reconciliation for the VRA and the GOP is never going to support that. (meaning the suppression continues) You likely can't do Reconciliation for anything climate related and the GOP will block that. There is no way to do Reconciliation for beefing up the ACA most likely so that is DOA. 51/50 means most Biden's agenda dies on the vine because his own people can't be bothered to do what the majority of the voters are asking them to do.

If you want to break it down statistically yes Manchin as a barely Dem is better than a GOPer. So what? If you break it down statistically the Twins are usually one of the better teams in the MLB. They still never do anything when the games start to really matter. If all things are equal and the rules are always being used fairly that would be fine. But this isn't a vacuum we live in the real world. A world where you have to be willing to fight to the death for what you believe. For all the hatred Mitch gets (and rightfully so) he and his people get it. You win with action not ideas. He doesn't even hide it he is out to make sure the Dems lose everything. Of course he doesn't have to they will stop themselves, but even so he is always fighting like his life is on the line. He plays like he always has a mandate. The Dems never play that way and so they have lost before it even starts. Manchin and Sinema being Dems doesn't matter because they are going to make sure most Dem policies never get passed. But hey...those stats amirite?

This is going to be two years of nothing so they might as well just get through as many judges as they can because they are on a short clock. I want to believe the Dems will do better with a favorable map but 2 years of getting nothing done will likely depress the Dem turnout. Why should we throw our money, time and energy at elections when the only ones they seem to have consequences for are us?

I think reconciliation is only for spending and revenue, and even then there are some strings attached with respect to trying to make policy changes look like revenue or spending bills. I also think you only get one a year, so you have to make it count.

Why don't you guys just go to Manchin and ask him what he'll support? If it's not $1.9 trillion, then what is it? Whatever happened to baby steps?

[Handyman]

I’m aware you can’t do anything VRA with budget reconciliation. It’s called “budget” for a reason. Climate change, I’m not so sure. They might be able to push climate change through incentivizing certain businesses. With renewable energy cheaper than its ever been before, they might be able to find a way to save money outside the 10 year budget window, and keep it relevant enough that the senate parliamentarian won’t override it.
This Senate isn’t ideal. We didn’t get the makeup we wanted. But, we are in the majority, even if the results we achieve are the Twins in the playoffs, rather than the Yankees.

It has to be budget neutral...that would take some serious fudging of the numbers. Not to mention incentivizing renewable is only part of the problem.

Your last line is why the Dems are losers. Just being the majority isn't enough in a fight like this. Usually, sure I am all for a bit of gridlock the fights can be fun and for the most part nothing bad really happens. This is not that time though. The Dems either have to start acting like the majority or their slim majority is worthless. People are tired of rhetoric...Republican voters are loyal, Democrat voters are fickle. Just being able to say "we tried but they wouldn't let us" isn't going to work. Mitch knows that...

This can't be a time for politics as usual or you might as well forfeit now. To use the Twins again, if the other team is playing dirty you don't sit on your hands and not fight back. You don't win the game by being the "bigger man". If the Dems aren't going to play the game Mitch plays then what the hell were we fighting for? This is not just a fight about what we need today, this was supposed to be about the future as well. If the Dems keep bringing knives to gun fights they will be out of power faster than you can say #MAGA2024.

[psych]

I think reconciliation is only for spending and revenue, and even then there are some strings attached with respect to trying to make policy changes look like revenue or spending bills. I also think you only get one a year, so you have to make it count.

Why don't you guys just go to Manchin and ask him what he'll support? If it's not $1.9 trillion, then what is it? Whatever happened to baby steps?

Yeah, this year, Democrats could actually get 2, like the GOP did in 2017. Agreed about how to approach Manchin.

[psych]

It has to be budget neutral...that would take some serious fudging of the numbers. Not to mention incentivizing renewable is only part of the problem.

Your last line is why the Dems are losers. Just being the majority isn't enough in a fight like this. Usually, sure I am all for a bit of gridlock the fights can be fun and for the most part nothing bad really happens. This is not that time though. The Dems either have to start acting like the majority or their slim majority is worthless. People are tired of rhetoric...Republican voters are loyal, Democrat voters are fickle. Just being able to say "we tried but they wouldn't let us" isn't going to work. Mitch knows that...

This can't be a time for politics as usual or you might as well forfeit now. To use the Twins again, if the other team is playing dirty you don't sit on your hands and not fight back. You don't win the game by being the "bigger man". If the Dems aren't going to play the game Mitch plays then what the hell were we fighting for? This is not just a fight about what we need today, this was supposed to be about the future as well. If the Dems keep bringing knives to gun fights they will be out of power faster than you can say #MAGA2024.

If the GOP can pass a 1.5 trillion tax cut in 2017 and make it look budget neutral, I’m sure Democrats can do the same with their budget reconciliation bills. It sucks that’s the only way we have to pass legislation, but it’s what we’ve got. If Trump runs again in 2024, I think we keep the WH, but that’s a story for another time.

[Handyman]

I think reconciliation is only for spending and revenue, and even then there are some strings attached with respect to trying to make policy changes look like revenue or spending bills. I also think you only get one a year, so you have to make it count.

Why don't you guys just go to Manchin and ask him what he'll support? If it's not $1.9 trillion, then what is it? Whatever happened to baby steps?

I think Manchin mostly supports COVID Relief the numbers are always workable. ($1.9 trillion aint happening) The point is that is the only thing Reconciliation can guarantee. Everything else that Biden ran on and won because of is now dead. He can't just EO it into existence because in 4 years it could all go away by more EOs. As the media is saying a lot lately it needs to be codified by a bill in Congress. Well that requires either 60 votes (never happening) or nuking the filibuster either in full or on a case by case basis. That isn't happening either so...

The problem isn't figuring out what Manchin supports...the problem is even if he supports it he won't vote to make it happen so who knows if he even really supports it. He can say he supports anything because unless he also supports the nuclear option there is no way it will happen because the GOP will block it. He is protected from having to do anything.

[Handyman]

If the GOP can pass a 1.5 trillion tax cut in 2017 and make it look budget neutral, I’m sure Democrats can do the same with their budget reconciliation bills. It sucks that’s the only way we have to pass legislation, but it’s what we’ve got. If Trump runs again in 2024, I think we keep the WH, but that’s a story for another time.

I doubt there is any way to show renewable is budget neutral...to make Green Energy work you need massive amounts of investment along with tons of tax breaks and incentives. Where is the money going to come from to offset that? Most of those jobs will be blue collar so it wont be from taxes. I don't see how the math adds up.

Also remember you can only do one Reconciliation a year...

[geezer]

Whatever happened to baby steps?

Yeah “baby steps” like the Trumpists use. Vandalize the Supreme Court one day, overturn an election next, kill the VP next Wednesday... baby steps

[psych]

I doubt there is any way to show renewable is budget neutral...to make Green Energy work you need massive amounts of investment along with tons of tax breaks and incentives. Where is the money going to come from to offset that? Most of those jobs will be blue collar so it wont be from taxes. I don't see how the math adds up.

Also remember you can only do one Reconciliation a year...

This year, they should be able to use 2, just like the GOP did in 2017. I won’t say I personally know enough about the budget reconciliation process to explicitly say what could pass, but some of what I’ve read said aspects of clean energy could be added into a budget reconciliation bill. Certainly not at the level of the Green New Deal, but more than what a Senate-led GOP would do with their budget reconciliation bills.

[SonofSouthie]

Had to chuckle when I saw this headline.

Republicans now 'shocked, shocked' that there's a deficit

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/...eres-a-deficit

[Kepler]

You pretend like something someone says or does will make him all of a sudden care.

No. No, no, no! I don't understand how you can ever get these things from what I write. The consequences of politics are about ethics but the conduct of politics has nothing to do with ethics.

Manchin will never care about anything. I don't care if he cares. I am talking about forcing him to act in a certain way. The only person who can potentially do that is Schumer.

Schumer will never care about anything. I don't care if he cares. I am talking about forcing him to act in a certain way.

Once you figure out how to do that you can change the world.